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Mets vs. Diamondbacks: Saber-stat Series Preview

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After a horrendous sweep in Houston, the Mets (13-12, 3GB) return home for a three-game series agains the Arizona Diamondbacks (13-13, 4.5GB).

The boys from Queens were simply beaten down by the Astros, allowing 18 runs while only scoring 7. Granted, Minute Maid parks is generally much easier to hit home runs in, but the Mets pitching staff's struggles with the long ball were on display in Houston, giving up five home runs in three games in Houston. Adjusting for home park, the Mets have the worst HR/FB ratio against in the National League, third worst in all of baseball (worst on the road in the NL, 17.2%).

Combine their inability to keep the ball in the park with their sub-par defense (park-adjusted BABIP against of 92), and it's no wonder they are giving up runs at a terrible rate (ERA- of 129, where lower is better).

This isn't a good combination with the Diamondbacks coming to town. Arizona tends to put runs on the board (4.5 runs per game), in particular through the long ball (HR/FB ratio of 11.3%). However, their adjusted runs created suggests their offensive prowess might be less robust on the road. The Diamondbacks do have a below average OPS+ against extreme flyball and groundball pitchers. Dillon Gee and R.A. Dickey have almost a 2:1 GB/FB ratio (Johan Santana is closer to even so far this season), so there is hope for a series win. However, if they get bit by the long ball they could just as easily lose two out of three.

For more great Diamondbacks coverage, be sure to check out AZ Snake Pit.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of whether the statistic is related to run scoring or run prevention. The lone exception is ERA-, where lower is better.

Statistics with an asterisk have been park adjusted using FanGraph's park factors. All statistics have been adjusted for each team's respective league.

Run Scoring

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus

OBP: On-base Percentage

ISO: Isolated Power

BB/K: Ratio of Walks to Strikeouts

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Runs Allowed

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

ERA-: Earned Run Average Minus

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

GB/FB: Ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

SD%: Shutdown Percentage ([SD/(SD+MD)])