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Mets Playoff Odds

It's just about the halfway point of the season and the Mets have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. How reasonable? Baseball Prospectus pegs the Metsies' current chances at 31%; coolstandings says 52%. Each outlet further breaks out the chances of winning the division as well, but let's not be too greedy: we will happily accept a wild card spot.

Let's say the Mets need to finish with at least 89 wins to secure a playoff berth. That's approximately the number of wins the hypothetical second National League wild card team would have had over the last five seasons. Given their current 43-37 record, it would mean going 46-36 the rest of the way, a .561 winning percentage. It's feasible but important questions remain for the second half:

  • Can David Wright and R.A. Dickey sustain their outstanding performances?
  • Will Ike Davis continue to rebound? How about Daniel Murphy?
  • How aggressive will Sandy Alderson be at the trade deadline? Will he go all-in for a rental like Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, as one Mets beat writer suggests, or will he be more conservative?
  • Will Johan Santana and Chris Young stay healthy?
  • What is the point of Miguel Batista?

These questions and more will be discussed in the coming weeks. For now, take the poll: will the Mets make the playoffs?

Click here for my educated guess of an answer, if you wish.