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Mets vs. Marlins: Saber-stat Series Preview

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After a 6-5 west coast trip, the Mets (53-56, 13GB) begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins (49-60, 17GB).

Despite moving into a shiny new ballpark and making some big moves in free-agency, the Miami Marlins have had what can only be characterized as a disappointing season. Many thought this team had a shot to unseat the Phillies as the kings of the NL East. To be fair, they've managed to match the Phillies this year. Unfortunately, both teams are at the bottom of the NL East, 17 games out of first place.

Even taking into account Miami's new stadium, this team has not hit or pitched well. They produce runs at a rate that is 15% less than league average and they've given up runs at an above average rate as well (ERA- 104). The graphic above doesn't use an updated park factor for Miami, since the season is still in progress, but anecdotally the park seems to suppress offense quite a bit. Even taking that into consideration, the team simply hasn't performed well.

Mets' pitchers--particularly Jon Niese--should be helped by the fact that home runs are harder to come by in Queens. Similarly, Chris Young can live up in the zone--as is his modus operandi--with less concern for the long ball. As for the pen, well, the less we see of them the better.

The Mets will face veteran Josh Johnson (2.94 FIP), Wade LeBlanc (3.03 FIP, 1 GS), and Nathan Eovaldi (4.02 FIP). While Johnson has been very good this year, LeBlanc has only started one game and Eovaldi has been average-below average for two separate teams.

This is a winnable series for the Mets, provided the starters do their job and the offense doesn't fall silent (like they did in the San Diego series).

For more on the Marlins be sure to check out Fish Stripes.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of whether the statistic is related to run scoring or run prevention.

Statistics with an asterisk have been park adjusted using FanGraph's park factors. All statistics have been league adjusted.

Run Scoring

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus

OBP: On-base Percentage

ISO: Isolated Power

BB/K: Ratio of Walks to Strikeouts

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Runs Allowed

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

GB/FB: Ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

SD%: Shutdown Percentage ([SD/(SD+MD)])