Over the past couple of weeks Carson Cistulli at FanGraphs has been rolling out ZiPS projections for MLB teams, and today it's the Mets' turn. ZiPS, short for Szymborzski Projection System, is a computer-based projection system developed by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory, and is widely regarded as one of the most reliable systems on offer.
According to ZiPS, the Mets are projected to be average in terms of production from their hitters. Their entire lineup consists of players projected to produce between 0.9 zWAR (Michael Cuddyer) to 3.8 zWAR (David Wright), with six of them projected to create between 1.8 and 3.1 zWAR. While these figures seem a bit pessimistic, it should be noted that the projections are based entirely on data from previous seasons and are without any human interference. A breakout season or two from the likes of Travis d'Arnaud or Wilmer Flores could change things very quickly.
On the other side of the ball, ZiPS sees a very bright future for the Mets' pitching staff. Matt Harvey is projected to come back nicely from his Tommy John surgery to produce a 3.12 ERA and 3.24 FIP in 153 innings of work, good for 2.8 zWAR. Those aren't quite not Harveyan numbers, but a good recovery nonetheless. Jacob DeGrom is projected to follow his Rookie of the Year campaign with a solid 2.8 zWAR season. Zack Wheeler checks in at 2.4 zWAR, followed by Jon Niese (1.7) and Bartolo Colon (1.1). Interestingly, Noah Syndergaard (1.8), Steven Matz (1.8), and Rafael Montero (1.7), the Mets' trio of top pitching prospects, are projected to outperform part of the Mets' rotation if they were to start the season in the majors.
It should be noted that these projections do not account for each player's predicted playing time in the majors. In other words, every player is projected based on a full season in the highest level for the purpose of the study. In addition, ZiPS focuses on individual performances and thus should not be used to calculate a team's projected zWAR as a whole, as advised by its creator himself.