Fresh off another strong season, Lucas Duda is projected to make $6.7 million in arbitration, according to Pace Law School. The method used by Pace Law School is the same method employed by agents and team officials during arbitration hearings.
After a breakout season in which Duda hit .253/.349/.481 with 30 home runs and a 3.2 fWAR over 153 games, the 29-year-old was once again a force in the Mets' lineup in 2015. Despite playing only 135 games due to a back injury, Duda managed to produce a 3.1 fWAR, good for 10th best among all first basemen. His 27 home runs and .244/.352/.486 line were almost identical to his 2014 marks.
The Pace Law projection suggests that, during arbitration, Duda will be compared with Carlos Quentin, Kendrys Morales, and Brandon Moss. Using the raises that these players have seen through arbitration during comparable stages of their careers, the Pace Law arbitration team projects that Duda will see a $2.5 million raise from his $4.2 million salary in 2015, bringing his salary to $6.7 million in 2016. This figure is very similar to the $6.8 million projected by MLB Trade Rumors.
As a former "Super-Two" player, Duda will have a fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility in 2017, after which he is set to become a free agent. Duda and the Mets were both interested in a contract extension prior to the 2015, but a deal was never agreed upon.