The Mets' Jose Reyes decision, three years later: Part two

By letting Jose Reyes leave New York three years ago, the Mets created holes at shortstop and at the leadoff spot that they have yet to fill. In part one of this series, we explored how much Reyes's absence hurt the Mets over the last three years. Now, we look to 2015 and beyond as we try to answer the mother of all Reyes questions: did the Mets make the right decision in letting him walk?

Over the last three years, Reyes would not have been a huge difference-maker for the Mets. The team was nowhere near playoff contention and actually got respectable production from its shortstops in both 2012 and 2014.

Now, the stakes get considerably higher. From 2015 to 2017, Reyes's salary jumps to $22 million a year. Meanwhile, the Mets are moving closer to that sweet spot on their win curve where any additional wins could put them into playoff contention. When the Mets were a 74-win team, it didn't really matter that Reyes could have helped them win 76; but turning an 86-win team into an 88-win team could make all the difference in the world.

Remember that, with two new Wild Card teams, making the playoffs is easier than it’s ever been. Along with the joy and prestige that postseason baseball brings to an organization and its fan base, it’s also a huge revenue boost. By one estimate, a postseason appearance is worth around 20-25% in additional revenue. For the Mets, that translates to roughly $40 to $60 million. If Reyes could have made the Mets a playoff team, he would have certainly been a worthwhile investment.

So how much better would Reyes have made the Mets going forward? That will depend, first, on Reyes's ability to stay on the field. Injuries have been an issue for the shortstop, who, since 2009, has reached the 140-games-played plateau just twice. Second, it will depend on how Reyes performs compared to whoever plays shortstop and hits leadoff for the Mets. Here’s what ZiPS projects for each of those players in 2015:

Reyes vs. potential Mets shortstops: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7
Wilmer Flores	570	.266	.300	.428	104	17	80	73	1	-7	2.1
Ruben Tejada	507	.249	.317	.320	82	3	39	48	3	2	1.4

Reyes vs. potential Mets leadoff hitters: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26
Juan Lagares	542	.264	.305	.370	90	6	55	58	13
Curtis Granderson	521	.231	.319	.424	109	21	60	71	9

ZiPS projects Reyes to be a significantly better player than Ruben Tejada, and a much better hitter than Juan Lagares. While Curtis Granderson would provide some pop from the leadoff spot, his on-base skills have diminished, and he’s no longer the threat on the basepaths that he once was, and that Reyes still is.

What really jumps out is how similar Reyes’s projections are to Wilmer Flores’s. ZiPS projects Reyes and Flores to have an identical OPS+ and an identical number of defensive runs saved. While ZiPS is bearish on Reyes’s speed and on-base skills, it’s quite bullish on Flores’s power. And so, should each player continue down the path ZiPS has him on, it would be a no-brainer to bet on Flores over Reyes long-term.

Of course, it’s not that simple. ZiPS is only one of several projection systems, and its expectations for Reyes are low by comparison. Steamer and Fans, for example, both peg the shortstop for 2.9 WAR in 2015. For the sake of argument, let's assume that Reyes will be closer to a three-WAR player for the duration of his contract. That’s almost exactly what he averaged in his last three seasons in Miami and Toronto, and in his final three seasons in New York.

While a three-WAR player is nice to have, is it really worth the $22 million that Reyes will earn? Well, yes, actually. Assuming that the price per WAR on the free agent market follows its upward trajectory to $7 million, a three-WAR player would be worth about $21 million—almost exactly the $22 million that Reyes is due. Some models already put the price per WAR around $8 million, which would make $22 million for three a slight bargain.

Although $22 million seems like a reasonable investment for a three-WAR player, the Mets don’t appear ready to make investments of that size; rather, they seem to be operating on a fixed payroll that won’t dramatically expand until they generate more revenue. Therefore, were Reyes on the payroll, it would almost certainly be at the expense of other players currently on the Mets’ roster.

Let’s run through some hypothetical scenarios to see just how differently the Mets would look with Reyes on the team. Obviously this requires some speculation, as we can’t know exactly what moves the team would have made in an alternate universe. We do, however, know what decisions the Mets' front office would have confronted had it chosen to build around Reyes’s contract.

For example, had the Mets kept Reyes, they might not have been able to sign either Bartolo Colon or Michael Cuddyer. This year, Colon and Cuddyer will make a combined $19.5 million, nearly the $22 million owed to Reyes. To even up the ledger, let's assume that the Mets trade Dillon Gee and his $5.3 million for one or two minor leaguers, and sign a low-cost free agent to play left field. Some possibilities include Chris Denorfia (who signed for one year, $2.6 million), Corey Hart (one year, $2.5 million), and Chris Young (one year, $2.5 million). Remember, Zack Wheeler only recently went down with his season-ending elbow injury; it's quite plausible that, were Reyes on the payroll, the Mets would have traded Gee earlier in the offseason. Rafael Montero, his likely replacement, would be coming off of a year in which got a longer major league audition due to Colon's not being on the team in 2014.

Under this scenario, the Mets shed about $25 million in payroll on Colon, Cuddyer, and Gee, and spend about $25 million on Reyes and one of those free agent left fielders. In terms of roster construction, Montero and Noah Syndergaard take the places of Colon and Gee, Reyes takes the place of Flores, and the free agent acquisition takes the place of Cuddyer. Here’s how the resulting lineup and rotation might look:

Projected Mets lineup: Scenario #1

Mets lineup without Reyes	Lagares, CF	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, SS	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes	Reyes, SS	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	d'Arnaud, C	Granderson, RF	Denorfia/Hart/Young, LF	Lagares, CF	Pitcher

Projected Mets rotation: Scenario #1

Mets rotation without Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Colon	Gee
Mets rotation with Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Montero	Syndergaard

Additions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7	$22.0 million
Chris Denorfia*	395	.260	.315	.370	88	6	34	55	9	3	0.7	$2.6 million
Corey Hart*	415	.249	.309	.399	99	11	46	47	3	-5	0.4	$2.5 million
Chris Young*	409	.225	.301	.408	94	15	48	50	10	8	1.5	$2.5 million

*The Mets sign only one of these three players (Denorfia, Hart, or Young).

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	3.61	101	3.68	103	1.7	$0.5 million
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	3.48	98	3.28	92	1.8	$0.5 million

Total WAR	6.6-7.7
Total Salary	$25.5-25.6 million

Subtractions: 2015 ZiPS Projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Wilmer Flores	570	.266	.300	.428	104	17	80	73	1	-7	2.1	$0.5 million
Michael Cuddyer	372	.271	.325	.450	117	12	44	42	6	-8	0.9	$8.5 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	4.03	113	3.70	104	1.1	$11.0 million
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	4.18	117	4.29	120	0.6	$5.3 million

Total WAR	4.7
Total Salary	$25.3 million

For a second hypothetical, assume that the Mets acquire a more established middle-of-the-order hitter to play left field. As in the first scenario, assume that the team forgoes signing Colon and Cuddyer, and trades Gee; now also assume that the Mets trade Daniel Murphy (who will make $8 million this year) for some minor-league talent, and give the starting second base job to Wilmer Flores. In total, that clears up $33 million in roster space for Reyes and a free agent outfielder, such as Alex Rios (who signed for one year, $11 million), Torii Hunter (one year, $10.5 million), or Michael Morse (two years, $16 million). In this scenario, Montero and Syndergaard replace Colon and Gee, the outfield acquisition replaces Cuddyer, and Reyes now replaces Murphy:

Projected Mets lineup: Scenario #2

Mets lineup without Reyes	Lagares, CF	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, SS	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes	Reyes, SS	Lagares, CF	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Rios/Hunter/Morse, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, 2B	Pitcher

Projected Mets rotation: Scenario #2

Mets rotation without Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Colon	Gee
Mets rotation with Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Montero	Syndergaard

Additions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7	$22.0 million
Alex Rios*	571	.281	.313	.419	100	10	64	68	21	0	1.2	$11.0 million
Torii Hunter*	566	.279	.308	.429	104	14	70	64	3	-7	0.4	$10.5 million
Michael Morse*	453	.264	.316	.440	106	15	53	49	0	-4	0.4	$7.5 million

*The Mets sign only one of these three players (Rios, Hunter, or Morse).

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	3.61	101	3.68	103	1.7	$0.5 million
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	3.48	98	3.28	92	1.8	$0.5 million

Total WAR	6.6-7.4
Total Salary	$30.5-34 million

Subtractions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Daniel Murphy	643	.286	.323	.404	105	10	70	84	13	-8	2.2	$8.0 million
Michael Cuddyer	372	.271	.325	.450	117	12	44	42	6	-8	0.9	$8.5 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	4.03	113	3.70	104	1.1	$11.0 million
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	4.18	117	4.29	120	0.6	$5.3 million

Total WAR	4.8
Total Salary	$32.8 million

The previous two scenarios assume that, had the Mets kept Reyes, they would have passed on Cuddyer. This seems like a reasonable assumption. Given that Cuddyer’s salary is backloaded to 2016, it’s unlikely that the Mets, in their current financial condition, would have committed $70.5 million to just four players next year, which is what the contracts of Reyes, Wright, Granderson, and Cuddyer require. However, it is theoretically possible: the Mets could have committed the roughly $33 million going to Colon, Gee, and Murphy, to Reyes and Cuddyer. The corresponding roster changes are pretty straightforward, as Cuddyer stays put, Montero and Syndergaard replace Colon and Gee, and Reyes replaces Murphy:

Projected Mets lineup: Scenario #3

Mets lineup without Reyes	Lagares, CF	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, SS	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes	Reyes, SS	Lagares, CF	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, 2B	Pitcher

Projected Mets rotation: Scenario #3

Mets rotation without Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Colon	Gee
Mets rotation with Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Montero	Syndergaard

Additions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7	$22.0 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	3.61	101	3.68	103	1.7	$0.5 million
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	3.48	98	3.28	92	1.8	$0.5 million

Total WAR	6.2
Total Salary	$23 million

Subtractions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Daniel Murphy	643	.286	.323	.404	105	10	70	84	13	-8	2.2	$8.0 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	4.03	113	3.70	104	1.1	$11.0 million
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	4.18	117	4.29	120	0.6	$5.3 million

Total WAR	3.9
Total Salary	$24.3 million

For the final two hypotheticals, let’s imagine a world with Reyes but without Granderson. You can argue that the Granderson move was one the Mets needed to make last offseason, given the pressure that existed at the time for the team to add an established power hitter. However, had the front office committed to both Reyes and Wright, it could have been uncomfortable making a third long-term commitment to Granderson. Assume that, instead of signing Granderson a year ago, the Mets signed a less established power bat to a more modest contract. The best example that comes to mind is Marlon Byrd, whom the Phillies signed for two years, $16 million. Instead of paying Granderson, Colon, and Eric Young Jr. $24 million combined last year, the Mets could have committed that $24 million to Reyes and Byrd.

In 2015, the Mets would still have Reyes at short and Byrd in right, now making $30 million combined. Assuming that Gee’s salary is dealt, and Granderson’s and Colon’s were never on the books, the Mets could afford Reyes, Byrd, and Cuddyer—or, would the team have preferred a left-handed hitter to balance the lineup, someone like Colby Rasmus, who recently signed a one-year deal for $8 million. In this scenario, Montero and Syndergaard replace Colon and Gee, Reyes replaces Flores, Byrd replaces Granderson, and Rasmus potentially replaces Cuddyer:

Projected Mets lineup: Scenario #4

Mets lineup without Reyes	Lagares, CF	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, SS	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes (and Cuddyer)	Reyes, SS	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Cuddyer, LF	Duda, 1B	Byrd, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Lagares, CF	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes (and Rasmus)	Reyes, SS	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Byrd, RF	Rasmus, LF	d'Arnaud, C	Lagares, CF	Pitcher

Projected Mets rotation: Scenario #4

Mets rotation without Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Colon	Gee
Mets rotation with Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Montero	Syndergaard

Additions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7	$22.0 million
Marlon Byrd	563	.271	.314	.481	114	26	91	74	2	3	2.3	$8.0 million
Colby Rasmus*	481	.239	.305	.430	102	19	54	58	3	-2	1.8	$8.0 million

*The Mets could, but don’t have to, replace Cuddyer with Rasmus in this scenario.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	3.61	101	3.68	103	1.7	$0.5 million
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	3.48	98	3.28	92	1.8	$0.5 million

Total WAR	8.5 (10.3 with Rasmus)
Total Salary	$31 million ($39 million with Rasmus)

Subtractions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Wilmer Flores	570	.266	.300	.428	104	17	80	73	1	-7	2.1	$0.5 million
Curtis Granderson	521	.231	.319	.424	109	21	60	71	9	0	1.8	$16.0 million
Michael Cuddyer*	372	.271	.325	.450	117	12	44	42	6	-8	0.9	$8.5 million

*The Mets could, but don’t have to, replace Cuddyer with Rasmus in this scenario.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	4.03	113	3.70	104	1.1	$11.0 million
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	4.18	117	4.29	120	0.6	$5.3 million

Total WAR	5.6 (6.5 with Cuddyer)
Total Salary	$32.8 million ($41.3 million with Cuddyer)

Now let’s really think outside the box. Assume, like before, that the Mets signed Reyes and Byrd instead of Granderson and Colon, and that they dump Gee’s salary. Now, rather than adding Cuddyer, let’s say the Mets make a run at Melky Cabrera. Cabrera is younger than Granderson, and his $42 million contract over the next three years is less onerous than Granderson’s; perhaps, then, the Mets would be more comfortable committing to Reyes, Wright, and Cabrera, than they are to Reyes, Wright, and Granderson. In this interesting scenario, Montero and Syndergaard replace Colon and Gee, Reyes replaces Flores, Byrd replaces Granderson, and Cabrera replaces Cuddyer. That leaves just a $2.7 million discrepancy, which could easily be eliminated by replacing bench players Tejada and John Mayberry Jr. (making a combined $3.4 million) with lower-cost options. Here are that team’s projections:

Projected Mets lineup: Scenario #5

Mets lineup without Reyes	Lagares, CF	Murphy, 2B	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Cuddyer, LF	Granderson, RF	d'Arnaud, C	Flores, SS	Pitcher
Mets lineup with Reyes	Reyes, SS	Cabrera, LF	Wright, 3B	Duda, 1B	Byrd, RF	Murphy, 2B	d'Arnaud, C	Lagares, CF	Pitcher

Projected Mets rotation: Scenario #5

Mets rotation without Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Colon	Gee
Mets rotation with Reyes	Harvey	deGrom	Niese	Montero	Syndergaard

Additions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Jose Reyes	609	.285	.333	.412	104	10	50	80	26	-7	2.7	$22.0 million
Marlon Byrd	563	.271	.314	.481	114	26	91	74	2	3	2.3	$8.0 million
Melky Cabrera	598	.296	.342	.440	113	14	67	81	9	-4	1.7	$13.0 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	3.61	101	3.68	103	1.7	$0.5 million
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	3.48	98	3.28	92	1.8	$0.5 million

Total WAR	10.2
Total Salary	$44 million

Subtractions: 2015 ZiPS projections

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RBI	R	SB	Def	zWAR	Salary
Wilmer Flores	570	.266	.300	.428	104	17	80	73	1	-7	2.1	$0.5 million
Curtis Granderson	521	.231	.319	.424	109	21	60	71	9	0	1.8	$16.0 million
Michael Cuddyer	372	.271	.325	.450	117	12	44	42	6	-8	0.9	$8.5 million

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	zWAR	Salary
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	4.03	113	3.70	104	1.1	$11.0 million
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	4.18	117	4.29	120	0.6	$5.3 million

Total WAR	6.5
Total Salary	$41.3 million

To summarize, had the Mets re-signed Jose Reyes, they would have to replace Michael Cuddyer and/or Curtis Granderson with lower-cost options, and could be forced to move Daniel Murphy. They would also sacrifice some of their pitching depth: with $22 million committed to Reyes, it’s almost inconceivable that the Mets would spend another $16.3 million on Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee. Instead, they would probably rely on Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard to be their fourth and fifth starters, with a low-cost acquisition à la Chris Young (the pitcher) likely in the mix as well.

Without Reyes, the Mets were able to acquire Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer. They were also able to stock up on starting pitchers, who can serve the team both as insurance policies and as trade chips. On that note, remember that the Mets received highly touted minor-league catcher Kevin Plawecki and infielder Matt Reynolds as compensation for losing Reyes. It's impossible to know how much playing time Plawecki and Reynolds will get with the Mets, or what the team would get in return should they trade either of them; either way, they are certainly factors in this discussion. And, finally, the Mets replaced Reyes with a young, unproven shortstop in Wilmer Flores, whom projection systems seem to like, but whom many scouts do not.

It's worth noting that, in every scenario, ZiPS projects the Mets to be better with Reyes than they are without him. This is due, in part, to the projected downgrade from Reyes to Flores. But just as important are ZiPS’s dim views of Granderson and Cuddyer (one or both of whom would probably be gone with Reyes on the payroll) and its rosy projections for Montero and Syndergaard (who would likely get a spot in the rotation). Had the Mets built around Reyes and some combination of Granderson and Cuddyer, they would have improved by two or three wins, according to ZiPS. Had they signed Reyes, but spent Granderson’s and Cuddyer’s money elsewhere, they would have improved by as many as three or four.

Would the Mets have been a playoff team in any of those scenarios? Well, PECOTA projects them to finish 82-80 in 2015, two games behind the Padres and Giants for a Wild Card spot; if that's the case, two to four extra wins would put the Mets right in contention. Those extra wins would probably be even more crucial in the years to come, when the Mets are expected to become more serious contenders.

Final thoughts

Judging by ZiPS’s projections, the Mets' biggest mistake wasn't letting Jose Reyes walk; rather, their biggest mistake was using those savings to sign Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer. That seems to be the key takeaway here. In 2015, Reyes will make $22 million and is projected to produce 2.7 WAR. Granderson and Cuddyer, meanwhile, are projected for just 2.7 WAR combined, at the cost of $24.5 million. For the Reyes decision to make any sense, the Mets will need more than that from their corner outfielders.

These, obviously, are just projections and should be taken in perspective. I think that most people (including myself) expect Granderson and Cuddyer to be better than ZiPS projects them to be. If they are, and if they provide the kind of offensive firepower that the Mets so desperately need, it would dramatically change the equation.

But keep in mind that Granderson will be 34 on Opening Day and Cuddyer will be 36. Granderson is coming off of a year in which he slugged .388, and Cuddyer off of a good but injury-plagued year in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Finally, Granderson hasn’t had a three-fWAR season since 2011; Cuddyer's last one was in 2006.

Granted, Reyes has an injury history, and much of his value comes from his increasingly fragile legs. It’s just interesting that—and, at the very least, worth asking why—the front office considered Granderson and Cuddyer to be better investments than it considered Reyes to be. Reyes doesn’t turn 32 until June; he was, by fWAR, far better in his two last years as a Met than either Granderson or Cuddyer were in their two last years before joining the Mets; and, remarkably, over the last three seasons (2012-2014), Reyes has compiled more fWAR than have Granderson and Cuddyer combined.

There are also the marketing and intangible factors to consider. Reyes was a homegrown talent and a fan-favorite in New York. He was a popular, high-energy presence in the Mets’ clubhouse. Had he played out the rest of his career with the Mets, he would have comfortably gone down as one of the three or four greatest and most significant players in franchise history. Reyes’s 30.4 fWAR with the Mets places him sixth all-time, behind Tom Seaver (72.4), David Wright (52.0), Dwight Gooden (50.6), Jerry Koosman (43.5), and Darryl Strawberry (35.5), and just ahead of Jon Matlack (29.5), Carlos Beltran (28.8), and Edgardo Alfonzo (28.5). Reyes’s 39.9 career fWAR would now put him ahead of Strawberry for fifth, almost certain to surpass Koosman for fourth, and within striking distance of Gooden for third. Reyes’s role on any future Mets playoff teams would have only cemented his legacy in New York.

Those, of course, are only secondary considerations. The primary case for re-signing Reyes is the Mets’ current need for a shortstop and a leadoff hitter, and the questionable manner in which they spent the money that they saved by forgoing him. Throw in the going price of wins on the free agent market, Reyes’s continued status as one of the game’s top shortstops, and the Mets’ position on their win curve, and you start to sense that the $22 million annual investment in Reyes is one that the Mets probably should have made.

What ultimately matters is how the next three years play out. Will Reyes’s body hold up? Can either Flores or Matt Reynolds develop into a reliable major-league shortstop? Can the Mets expand their payroll to acquire a more established shortstop? Will Granderson and Cuddyer be the power hitters that the Mets need them to be? And, finally, what will the Mets get from Kevin Plawecki, or whoever he can net them in a trade?

By letting Jose Reyes walk, the Mets made a decision with franchise-changing implications. Whether or not they made the right decision will depend largely on how those questions are answered. As the team enters a new, hopefully more competitive era without its one-time star shortstop, they are questions that we should at least keep in the back of our minds.