MLB Draft 2015: Mets have ten percent chance of drafting an All-Star with 53rd pick

Because they gave up their first round pick to sign Michael Cuddyer, the Mets’ first selection of today’s MLB Amateur Draft will not come until the second round, where the team selects 53rd overall.

There is no telling who the Mets might pick today; the MLB Draft is a difficult one to predict aside from the first few picks. But if past output from the 53rd overall spot is any indicator of future performance, the Mets’ current spot is far from ideal.

Of the 50 players selected 53rd overall since the amateur draft first took place in 1965, only 21 went on to play at the major league level. Of those 21 players, five went on to become All-Stars: Andy Messersmith, Gary Carter, Phil Bradley, Steve Bedrosian, and Sean Casey. So based on historical drafts, the Mets have a ten percent chance at landing a future All-Star and a 42 percent chance at selecting a future major leaguer.

Despite the fact that less than half of these players made it to the majors, there is still plenty for Mets fans to hope for today. General Manager Sandy Alderson has been largely responsible for turning around what was once a poor Mets farm system. In 2010, the year before Alderson took over, the Mets were just 25th on Baseball America’s annual Organization Talent Rankings list. This year, they are 5th.

Likewise, the five All-Stars selected 53rd overall have all had very solid careers. Messersmith finished in the top five in Cy Young voting three times during the 1970’s. Bedrosian won the award as a closer in 1987. Bradley hit 78 home runs over eight MLB seasons, and Casey was an effective everyday player for over a decade.

Gary Carter, the lone Hall-of-Famer on this list, became one of the greatest catchers in the history of baseball after the Expos selected him at this spot in 1972. An 11-time All-Star, "The Kid" is perhaps best known for his tenure with the Mets, where he helped the team win their last World Series title in 1986. He was enshrined into the Hall of Fame in 2003, and no Met has worn his number eight since then. So the team has reaped the benefits of this draft slot in the past, even if they didn't make that pick themselves.

The Mets have only selected at this slot once before. In 1980, they chose Jody Johnston, a pitcher who played for six seasons in the team’s farm system.

Statistically speaking, it is more likely than not that the player the Mets draft today will never play in a game at Citi Field. But who knows? Maybe Alderson will select the next Gary Carter.