FanPost

AAOP: Inconceivable!

What we have to work with.

C Travis d’Arnaud $3.4 million 1.5 WAR

C Kevin Plawecki $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

1B Dominic Smith $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

2B Asdrubal Cabrera $8.5 million 2.0 WAR

2B Gavin Cecchini $0.5 million 0.0 WAR

3B Wilmer Flores $3.7 million 2.0 WAR

SS Amed Rosario $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

SS Matt Reynolds $0.5 million -0.5 WAR

LF Yoenis Cespedes $29.0 million 2.5 WAR

CF Brandon Nimmo $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

RF Michael Conforto $0.5 million 3.5 WAR

OF Juan Lagares $6.5 million 0.5 WAR

SP Noah Syndergaard $1.9 million 6.0 WAR

SP Jacob deGrom $9.2 million 4.5 WAR

SP Matt Harvey $5.9 million 1.0 WAR

SP Zack Wheeler $1.9 million 1.5 WAR

SP Steven Matz $0.5 million 1.5 WAR*

SP Seth Lugo $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

SP Robert Gsellman $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

RP Jeurys Familia $7.4 million 1.0 WAR

RP AJ Ramos $9.2 million 0.5 WAR

RP Jerry Blevins $7.0 million 0.5 WAR

RP Hansel Robles $1.0 million 0.0 WAR

RP Paul Sewald $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

RP Josh Smoker $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

David Wright $20 million (DL)

Total: $121.1 million, 34.0 WAR (about 82 wins)

*estimate on Matz - Fangraphs doesn't have a projection

And now, to work!

Our Heroes

NOAH SYNDERGAARD, YOENIS CESPEDES, and an unconscious DAVID WRIGHT sit behind the outfield wall of Nationals Park. Syndergaard peaks over to the infield.

He is thunderstruck by how strong this Nationals team looks. He turns to CESPEDES, who is concentrating unsuccessfully, trying to prop WRIGHT against the wall.

SYNDERGAARD:

Yoenis - they're going to win more than ninety -

CESPEDES:

(absolutely unfazed)

What's the difference?

(indicating the half-dead Wright)

We've got him. Help me here.

We'll have to force feed him.

SYNDERGAARD:

Has it been 6-8 weeks?

CESPEDES:

We can't wait - the plan is due in less than 48 hours and we need him to figure out how we're going to fix this mess. Sandy is counting on us.

During this, SYNDERGAARD, using all his strength, has managed to get WRIGHT into a right angled sitting position, while CESPEDES brings out the miracle pill.

CESPEDES:

Tilt his head back. Open his mouth.

SYNDERGAARD:

How long do we have to wait before we know if the miracle works?

CESPEDES:
Your guess is as good as mine.

WRIGHT:

I beat you both apart,

I'll take you both together!

SYNDERGAARD and CESPEDES look at each other confused. WRIGHT clearly doesn't recognize them. It's been a long recovery and he's barely played with either of them, after all. . .

WRIGHT:
Why won't my arms move?

SYNDERGAARD:
You've been mostly dead for like, three years.

CESPEDES:

We had Miracle Ray, the miracle man the Mets fired, make a pill to bring you back.

WRIGHT:

That quack trainer?

Who are you? Are we enemies?

Why am I in D.C.? Where's Beltrán?

CESPEDES:

Let me explain - (pause)

No there is too much. Let me sum up.

Beltrán hasn't been on this team in ages.

He just won a ring in Houston with a team built mostly on youth, so all we have to do is nurture our youth, making sure they get lots of good playing time and develop correctly, while also bringing in some key veterans to turn this team back into a contender without compromising the youth development.

WRIGHT:

That doesn't leave much time for dilly-dallying.

(finger twitches)

SYNDERGAARD:

You just wiggled your finger!

That's wonderful!

WRIGHT:

I've always been a quick healer.

(CESPEDES and SYNDERGAARD share a skeptical look)

What are our liabilities?

CESPEDES:

Conforto's shoulder, Thor's lat, TJ's Tommy John, Harvey's complete loss of ability, Wheeler's arm, Matz's elbow, your entire body other than that finger. . .

WRIGHT:

And our assets?

CESPEDES:

$145 million, a handful of healthy players,

(hands WRIGHT the current team sheet)

And your brains. You're still the captain here.

Any ideas you might have. . .

WRIGHT:

That's it? Impossible.

Based on this sheet that's about $24 million to play with. If I had the Yankees' payroll maybe I could come up with something, but this?

(shakes head)

SYNDERGAARD:
You just shook your head!

That doesn't make you happy?

WRIGHT:

Two healthy pitchers, one cromulent outfielder,

and you think a little head jiggle is supposed to make me happy? hmm?

I mean, if we only had a manager that would be something…

CESPEDES:

What did we do with that Indians pitching coach Sandy was interviewing?

SYNDERGAARD:

Sandy hired him I think.

WRIGHT:

Well why didn't you list that among our assets in the first place?

What I wouldn't give for another $15 million…

CESPEDES:

There we cannot help you.

SYNDERGAARD:

Will this do? (pulls out check)

CESPEDES:
Where did you get that?

SYNDERGAARD:

Took out an insurance policy on him (indicating WRIGHT).

He was so injured, they said I could keep it.

WRIGHT:

All right, all right. Now I'll need a bat eventually.

CESPEDES:

Why? You can't even lift one?

SYNDERGAARD:

And if you do I have to give this check back.

WRIGHT:
True, but that's hardly common knowledge.

Now there may be problems finding playing time for everyone.

CESPEDES:

I'll say. Where do we find a pitcher. And when we do, what happens to Matz and Wheeler? And if we bring in an infielder what happens to the youngsters we have there now? And if we worry about giving the youngsters playing time how do we make the playoffs?

SYNDERGAARD:
Don't pester him. He's been mostly dead too long.

CESPEDES:
Right, right, sorry. We'll figure it out on the walk home.

(They get up, supporting WRIGHT, and start the long march up I-95 back to New York, talking about their plans)

SYNDERGAARD:

Yoenis. . .

CESPEDES:

What?

SYNDERGAARD:
I hope we win.

**THE INFIELD**

WRIGHT:

Let's talk about some of these youngsters.

Travis d'Arnaud. Let's talk about him first, I think I remember him. Seemed like he had a pretty promising bat at times. How's he coming along?

SYNDERGAARD:

It seems like he has a pretty promising bat. At times.

WRIGHT:

Hmm. It says he's 28 now. It's time for him to show us what he's got. I want him starting at catcher. This Plawecki fellow can back him up. The last thing we need is to keep either of them in limbo any longer by signing some veteran we can't afford. So that's one position we don't have to worry about.

Dominic Smith. I don't know that name.

CESPEDES:

22 years old. Hit well in AAA. Not so well in the majors.

WRIGHT:

I can see that. .198? Still 22. . . yes, back to AAA with him. Most of these youngsters just need to make the big league roster already, but Smith would appear to be the exception. Another year in the minors for him.

We need a first baseman.

WRIGHT:

Not like this Cecchini fellow. Another year in AAA might just ruin him completely. So there's our backup infielder. But we need a first baseman.

SYNDERGAARD:

We need a first baseman.

WRIGHT:

We'll figure that out later. And Amed Rosario, he'll definitely start. So we have a shortstop.

SYNDERGAARD:

We have a shortstop.

CESPEDES:
Stop that!

SYNDERGAARD:

It helps the people who are just skimming along for the actual plan.

CESPEDES:

The bolded names should be enough.

WRIGHT:

You can sum it all up again at the end though. Alright. So we have two catchers, a shortstop, and a backup infielder, and we know we need a first baseman. That leaves second and third. Wilmer Flores, I remember him. He can play either one. About time he establishes himself with a full season somewhere. And I see something about an option for this Asdrubal Cabrera fellow.

CESPEDES:

Already picked up.

WRIGHT:

Good. He's not great but for the money you can't do much better. So between the two of them that's second and third taken care of. Lord knows I won't be playing but that's how we got that insurance check. Which we'll now use on a first baseman. I wonder how much Carlos Santana will cost.

SYNDERGAARD pulls out a smart phone.

CESPEDES:

Where did you get that?

SYNDERGAARD:
Miracle Ray's. This MLB Trade Rumors site has free agent predictions. It predicts three years, $45 million.

CESPEDES:

(counting on his fingers)

That's $15 million per year.

WRIGHT:
Seems low. But whatever. Perfect. He's in. A 3 win player for $15 million, can't do much better than that. That cancels out with the insurance check. So that brings our remaining budget back to the $24 million we had originally. But now we have an infield.

SYNDERGAARD:

We have an infield.

C Travis d’Arnaud $3.4 million 1.5 WAR

1B Carlos Santana $15 million 3.0 WAR

2B Asdrubal Cabrera $8.5 million 2.0 WAR

3B Wilmer Flores $3.7 million 2.0 WAR

SS Amed Rosario $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

CESPEDES:

And part of a bench!

WRIGHT:
We'll get to that. First the outfield.

**THE OUTFIELD**

WRIGHT:

Right. You said this Conforto guy had an injured shoulder.

CESPEDES:
You don't remember Conforto? He hit two home runs in that World Series game. You were there for that. We lost to the Royals. . .

WRIGHT:

(stares blankly)

Of course. Well no way we can count on him to start the season. Maybe after a month or two. In the meantime, Nimmo can play right field. Can you handle left?

CESPEDES:

(shrugs)

WRIGHT:
Good enough. And Lagares. . . I like him, but really as more of a fourth outfielder type. Really that's what Nimmo should be too. I'm okay with one of them starting until Conforto is back but both? Too much. We'll sign an outfielder.

SYNDERGAARD:

We'll sign an outfielder! (Cespedes glares at him).

WRIGHT:

Even with Santana's 3 WAR we're still a solid 5-6 wins away from competing. We need to make some of that up here. Let's go big. Tell me about free agent Lorenzo Cain. Wasn't he a Royal? We played against him in that — um — 2015 World Series?

CESPEDES:

We did.

WRIGHT:
Right. Of course we did. I know that.

SYNDERGAARD:

MLB Trade Rumors says four years, $70 million. Fangraphs projects 3.2 wins.

WRIGHT:

$17.5 million per year. Seems low as well. Are you sure that site is legit?

CESPEDES:

The AAOP instructions said to use it for the arbitration amounts, so it seems like these salaries should be fair game as well.

WRIGHT:

Fair enough. Well, we can afford that. He's been worth at least 4 wins in three of the past four seasons. 6.5 wins in 2015.

SYNDERGAARD:

You're starting to remember!

CESPEDES:
He looked at your phone.

SYNDERGAARD covers his phone with his free hand so WRIGHT can't see.

WRIGHT:
Let's round up to 3.5 wins. So Cain starts in centerfield with Cespedes in left and Nimmo in right until Conforto gets back. Then Nimmo joins Lagares on the bench. Conforto probably won't be worth the 3.5 wins fangraphs projected, but 3.0 seems reasonable. Thor?

SYNDERGAARD:

Outfield:

LF Yoenis Cespedes $29.0 million 2.5 WAR

CF Lorenzo Cain $17.5 million 3.5 WAR

RF Michael Conforto $0.5 million 3.0 WAR

WRIGHT:

And now the bench.

SYNDERGAARD:

Bench:

C Kevin Plawecki $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

IF Gavin Cecchini $0.5 million 0.0 WAR

OF Brandon Nimmo $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

OF Juan Lagares $6.5 million 0.5 WAR

WRIGHT:

20.5 wins in total from our offense. Up from 14.5. Not bad. And in terms of money to spend on pitching we still have, um. . .

CESPEDES:

$6.5 million for pitching

**THE PITCHING**

WRIGHT:

$6.5 million?! If this AJ Ramos guy is a good barometer then that doesn't even buy us a mediocre setup man!

SYNDERGAARD:

He's not a good barometer.

WRIGHT:

Then why are we keeping him? Non-tender!

CESPEDES:

$15.7 million

WRIGHT:

What was that?

CESPEDES:

That's how much we have now. $15.7 million

WRIGHT:

Right. I was getting there. Well then. Syndergaard, you're pitching a full season this year.

SYNDERGAARD:

But I —

WRIGHT:

But nothing. deGrom is too. Now, between Harvey, Wheeler, Matz, Lugo, and Gsellman I feel like we can count on two starters worth. Let's focus on bringing in one reliable starter. That way the door is still open for two of them to establish themselves. Tell me about Lance Lynn.

SYNDERGAARD:

Fangraphs 1.3 wins. MLBTR says four years, $56 million.

(WRIGHT looks unimpressed).

WRIGHT:
$14 million per year? With that walk rate? Forget it. Alex Cobb?

SYNDERGAARD:

1.7 wins. Four years, $48 million.

WRIGHT:

Better. Hmm. He's a definite maybe.

(CESPEDES raises an eyebrow at SYNDERGAARD, who shrugs).

You heard me. A definite maybe. Who else. Lackey, Dickey, and Sabathia, all too old. Arrieta and Darvish, too expensive. Vargas and Garcia, too risky. Hmm, here's one. Tyler Chatwood.

SYNDERGAARD:
Fangraphs says 1.6 wins. MLBTR says three years, $20 million. They predict he signs with the Phillies.

WRIGHT:

Oh good. If he'd sign with the Phillies he'd definitely sign with us.

(By now they've made it up I-95 all the way to Philadelphia. A passing fan, hearing the comment, spits at them as he drives past. SYNDERGAARD picks up a crumpled soda can and hurls it 100 mph through the fan's rear window, shattering it and causing the fan to swerve nearly off the road. The fan regains control of his car, flips them off, and keeps driving).

WRIGHT:
None of these pitchers seem great but for $6.7 million and the chance to see what this guy can do outside of Colorado, I think Chatwood's our guy.

CESPEDES:

(skeptically) Are you sure you wouldn't prefer Alex Cobb?

WRIGHT:

I would, but we need a reliever to replace Ramos still and I have my eye on this Bryan Shaw fellow. Can't afford both. Chatwood it is.

Syndergaard:

The rotation:

SP Noah Syndergaard $1.9 million 6.0 WAR

SP Jacob DeGrom $9.2 million 4.5 WAR

SP Matt Harvey $5.9 million 1.0 WAR

SP Tyler Chatwood $6.7 million 1.5 WAR

SP Zack Wheeler $1.9 million 1.5 WAR

SP Steven Matz $0.5 million 1.5 WAR

SP Seth Lugo $0.5 million 1.0 WAR

WRIGHT:

Put Gsellman in the farm for now. And add Shaw to the bullpen.

SYNDERGAARD:
MLBTR has him at three years, $21 million. So the bullpen is:

RP Jeurys Familia $7.4 million 1.0 WAR

RP Bryan Shaw $7.0 million 1.0 WAR

RP Jerry Blevins $7.0 million 0.5 WAR

RP Hansel Robles $1.0 million 0.0 WAR

RP Paul Sewald $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

RP Josh Smoker $0.5 million 0.5 WAR

WRIGHT:

That's 20.5 wins from our pitchers.

CESPEDES:

That's the same as our offense! It's kind of like a rhyme. I should have seen it.

SYNDERGAARD:

Anybody want a peanut?

WRIGHT:

Now entering New Jersey. I remember this place. It's coming back to me now.

(pause)

We're still not even close to Shea Stadium, are we.

CESPEDES:
We play at Citifield

WRIGHT:

Oh.

They walk in silence...

...

...

...

At last... Exterior, Citi Field. SANDY ALDERSON, MICKEY CALLAWAY, and FRED and JEFF WILPON are deep in conversation with concerned looks on their faces as they pace around the stadium for what must be the hundredth time. Up ride our heroes, now on horseback, with a fourth horse in tow...

SYNDERGAARD:

Sandy! Sandy! Wright's awake!

(the WILPONS looks aghast)

WRIGHT:

Don't worry. I won't be able to play. I've been mostly dead for years. You'll get your insurance.

SYNDERGAARD:
I have the check right here!

CESPEDES:

And our plan.

SYNDERGAARD:

See! You told us to go find something useful to do. Did you and Mickey finish your grown-up talk? (he hands over the check and the plan)

(Alderson takes the plan with a tired but friendly smile and puts it right in his pocket)

SYNDERGAARD:

And look, we brought you these horses. So you don't have to walk anymore! Because there are four of you, if we ever find a manager. (To Callaway:) Hello, manager!

ALDERSON:

Thor. You did something right.

SYNDERGAARD:

Don't worry. I won't let it go to my head.

The plan:

METS 2018 ROSTER

Salary

Projected WAR

Bat/Throws

OPENING DAY LINEUP:

RF Brandon Nimmo

$0.5 million

1.0

L

CF Lorenzo Cain

$17.5 million (four years)

3.5

R

2B Asdrubal Cabrera

$8.5 million

2.0

S

LF Yoenis Cespedes

$29.0 million

2.5

R

1B Carlos Santana

$15.0 million (three years)

3.0

S

3B Wilmer Flores

$3.7 million

2.0

R

C Travis d’Arnaud

$3.4 million

1.5

R

SS Amed Rosario

$0.5 million

1.0

R

Bench:

C Kevin Plawecki

$0.5 million

0.5

R

IF Gavin Cecchini

$0.5 million

0.5

R

IF Stephen Drew

(Added based on comments)

$1.0 million (one year)

0.5

L

OF Michael Conforto*

$0.5 million

3.0

L

OF Juan Lagares

$6.5 million

0.5

R

ROTATION:

SP Noah Syndergaard

$1.9 million

6.0

R

SP Jacob deGrom

$9.2 million

4.5

R

SP Matt Harvey

$5.9 million

1.0

R

SP Tyler Chatwood

$6.7 million (three years)

1.5

R

SP Steven Matz

$0.5 million

1.5

L

BULLPEN:

CP Jeurys Familia

$7.4 million

1.0

R

RP Bryan Shaw

$7.0 million (three years)

1.0

R

RP Jerry Blevins

$7.0 illion

0.5

L

RP Hansel Robles

$1.0 million

0.0

R

RP Paul Sewald

Removed to make room for Drew

$0.5 million

0.5

R

RP Josh Smoker

$0.5 million

0.5

L

LRP/SP Seth Lugo

$0.5 million

1.0

R

LRP/SP Zack Wheeler

$1.9 million

1.5

R

TOTAL: $141.6 million (including Wright’s $5 million not covered by insurance)

TOTAL: 41 WAR (roughly 89 wins)

*I've included Conforto on the bench because I wanted him factored into the calculation here. He'll start in RF when he returns and, in my opinion, should bat second behind Cain (with Cabrera moving down for better R/L balance). But in the meantime that bench spot goes to Reynolds or Evans, who shouldn't really factor into any of the totals.

Cain, Conforto, Flores, Cespedes, Santana, d'Arnaud, Cabrera, Rosario sounds pretty good to me...

So, time to summarize it all. No more Princess Bride. What I've done here was really influenced by my desire to keep some of these youngsters in the lineup and in the big leagues in a sort of make-or-break style, let's see what they've got kind of situation. Flores and d'Arnaud need the opportunity to play a full season. Plawecki and Cecchini need to stay out of AAA and factor in on this team's bench. Nimmo too, but his is an interesting case because I want to see a lot of him this year. Even when Conforto gets back I want Nimmo starting two or three times a week around the outfield, giving each of the others occasional rest and allowing him to continue to develop.

Smith is the exception. Smith needs another year in AAA. So perhaps it seems silly to be signing Santana for three years, but at that predicted contract I couldn't say no. (Yeah, maybe MLBTR is a bit conservative on some of these but I left $4 million in the budget at the end of the plan so we can be a bit flexible). If we have to trade him at the end of the season, or at the deadline if we're out of contention, we'll worry about it then. But Smith isn't a sure enough thing as a prospect to really worry that much about blocking him.

My goal here was to add wins without blocking too many players, and I think Cain and Santana do that best, rather than spreading the money around to add depth that wouldn't even necessarily be better than what we have already. Chatwood, okay, that's unexciting depth - but then, if Matz, Wheeler, and Harvey can return to their old selves, nobody's going to shed a tear if Chatwood finds himself the odd man out and into the bullpen. I really wanted Cobb but just couldn't quite fit him in the budget while still having any wiggle room.

Wiggle room - that's key. Because hopefully we'll be buyers come the trade deadline. I can think of a certain 3B down in Baltimore who's an impending free agent and who might be an attractive option to make the trek up I-95, with Flores moving to 2B and Cabrera becoming the supersub.

The Mets are in a situation where we could contend this year. Heck, we might even be able to contend with what we have if everything suddenly goes right. But we can't rely on everything going right. Too many unknown quantities.

But nor should we count on everything going wrong. The last thing I want is to go into next year in the same boat, not really knowing what we have with this pitching staff or these youngsters. So the goal for 2018 needs to be to give ourselves a chance to contend while also figuring out what our assets are truly worth. I think this plan allows us to do both. At the end of the year we'll know what we have in Flores and d'Arnaud. We'll have a better idea of what we have in Nimmo and Cecchini. Hopefully, two of our young pitchers (Matz and Wheeler? Lugo? Gsellman?) will have established themselves as reliable pieces in the rotation. And hopefully we do a little bit of winning while we're at it.

Okay, so, it's not gonna happen. Cain and Santana both? No chance. The Mets can't have nice things like that. But that's not the point of an AAOP. The point is, could it happen, and if it could, should it. I certainly wish it would. And to that I say, "as you wish."

Storming the Castle

EDIT: It has been pointed out to me that the rules of the game dictate that David Wright's salary must be factored in fully to the $145 million payroll. No insurance. With that in mind, I would no longer sign Cain - between Santana and Cain, I believe Santana to be the player the Mets need more, while Cain is more of a luxury.

Cain's salary was $17.5 million, so taking him out gives me an additional $2.5 million to work with. Combined with my small budget surplus I now have just under $6 million total. That money will be spent on Tony Watson - two years, $12 million. We now have two solid lefties in the pen to go with our two excellent righties in Familia and Shaw, so now we don't have to rely on Smoker.

Meanwhile, I will no longer be signing Stephen Drew. Instead, that million goes to Gregor Blanco to be my lefty bench bat and backup outfielder.

Roster:

C d'Arnaud, 1B SANTANA, 2B Cabrera, 3B Flores, SS Rosario, LF Cespedes, CF Lagares, RF Nimmo (later Conforto, with Nimmo moving to CF).

Bench: Plawecki, Cecchini, Reynolds, BLANCO, eventually Lagares

SP Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, CHATWOOD, Matz(/Wheeler/Lugo)

RP Familia, SHAW, WATSON, Blevins, Robles, Sewald, Wheeler, Lugo

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