FanPost

AAOP: Manny M Being Man-NYM

Answer: 2008.

Question: When was the last time the Mets finished in the top-10 in runs scored?

The Mets offense has been average/below-average for a decade now. Talk all you want about Park Factors, but I'm not buying the argument. The Astros led all of baseball in runs scored despite playing their home games at Minute Maid Park which ranked dead last in Park Factor this year (and last year, fwiw).

We need a catalyst to jump start this line-up. The Man (sorry) for the job is Manny Machado.

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The whole offseason plan revolves around Manny transforming the offense. Whatever the price, he's worth it. He's a 25-year-old generational superstar that can serve as the franchise cornerstone for the next decade. Opportunities to acquire this type of unicorn rarely present themselves. If he costs the farm, so be it.

The Traid & Extension

Mets get: Manny Machado

Orioles get: Juan Lagares, Wilmer Flores, Matt Harvey, Andres Gimenez, David Peterson, Justin Dunn, Tomas Nido, and Thomas Szapucki

It should be obvious why the Mets would do this deal, buy why would the Orioles do it?

1. Baltimore is unlikely to contend in 2018 and will almost definitely lose Machado after this season, receiving only a draft pick as compensation.

2. They get two solid major leaguers under team control at reasonable costs through 2019. Wilmer can replace Manny at 3B this year. Juan can be a fourth OF. Adam Jones is a free agent after the season, but even if they re-sign him, Lagares is a vastly superior defender in center allowing Jones to move to a corner OF spot.

3. Most importantly, the prospects. These are five of the top prospects in the Mets system. For one year of Machado, Baltimore gets 30 years of potential team control over these guys.

4. The Orioles can also try their luck at trying to turn Harvey back into Harvey.

The Mets don't make a trade like this unless they are fully prepared to sign Manny to the largest contract in franchise history, which is what it would take for him to sign. 8 years, $240m seems like the jumping off point. Is that affordable? Sure. He fits into the 2018 budget at over $17m a year and 2018 is the last year of the Cabrera deal which frees another $8m+. Factor in some cost savings from the Wright insurance and it's not a huge leap to get us there.

You pay for greatness. Manny is great. Go get him.

The Contract Decisions

He Gone

AJ Ramos: This feels like the easiest decision to make of the entire offseason. Ramos is projected to make $9.2m in arbitration which is money that can be better spent elsewhere.

He Stay

Asdrubal Cabrera: Finding a replacement from the weak batch of free agent options proved to be impossible. $8.5m is a reasonable sum to pay a starting 2B with a bit of positional flexibility.

The Free Agent Targets

Lance Lynn (3 years, $50m): Eater of Innings.

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Lynn missed all of 2016 after Tommy John surgery but bounced back with a respectable 2017 season. The bet here is that he gets stronger being two years removed from TJ while continuing to eat innings as a #3 starter. An above-average starter giving you 180-200 innings per season is worth $16-18m a year. Think a sexier version of Bartolo Colon. Actually, scratch that. No one can be sexier than the Big Sexy. I digress. This feels like a safe bet with minimal downside for the next three years.

Jake McGee (2 years, $14m): Thrower of Chedd.

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Yes, that's a bootleg photoshopped block of cheddar cheese. Looking at it again, it sort of looks like butter but just go with it.

On the hill, McGee touches the high-90s and has no discernable platoon split. In fact, lefties him slightly better than righties. He has high leverage experience and figures to be a great 7th inning option out of the pen. We need someone else besides Blevins throwing from the south side too.

Howie Kendrick (1 year, $4m): Hitter of Above-Averageness

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Don't ask him to play much defense especially on the dirt, but this dude hits. He's a nice pinch hitting option for a bargain basement price. It feels like he's been around forever but he'll only be 34 on Opening Day.

Yusmeiro Petit (2 years, $8m): Man of Mystery

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Since there's little chance you know what Yusmeiro looks like, here's his head shot. Petit has started in his career but posted a dominant year of relief in 2017. He's versatile, but as a 33 year old (as of next week), he won't be overly expensive. Sign me up for two years.

Austin Jackson (1 year, $1.5m): Maker of the Catch

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Let's call him a poor man's version of Juan Lagares. For one-third the price, he's worth it.

The Wild Card: Shohei Otani

O

For some reason, the Mets have had no connection with Otani which is completely baffling. I wish I could say they were laying low waiting to pounce, but we all know that's not the case. I would have loved to add him here (fits very nicely in place of Lynn) but that's not happening so there's no use even factoring him in here.

The Line-up

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Nice L/R balance with plenty of upside. If Amed does anything, this can absolutely be a top-10 lineup. I would pay to watch this team hit.

The Bench

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Wright is on the bench here, but the expectation is that he will not play. A left-handed hitting replacement would be ideal. I still think TJR can hit enough to earn a starting spot in the future. Maybe at 2B in 2019?

The Rotation

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Strong rotation. Any contribution out of Matz/Gsellman would turn this into an elite unit.

The Pen

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Consider me the conductor of the "Zack Wheeler will be a dominant reliever" train. Solid depth and no Hansel Robles. I'll take it.

The Whole Roster & Bill

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The Outlook

Manny brings this team back to October. The rest of the line-up and health of the staff dictate how deep into the postseason this team goes.

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