Reviewing the 10 modern era Hall of Fame candidates

This Sunday, the Hall of Fame’s Modern Baseball Era Committee will consider 10 candidates for induction in 2018. The candidates consist of nine players and one executive whose greatest impact on the game occurred from 1970 to 1987. In order to be inducted, candidates need at least 12 of the 16 committee members’ votes. While no former Mets made the ballot, here are the 10 candidates who did:

Alan Trammell

Of all the players on the ballot, Trammell probably has the best statistical case for induction. In his twenty-year career, the shortstop hit .285/.352/.415 (111 wRC+), with 2,365 hits, 1,003 RBIs, seven seasons of a 120-or-higher wRC+, and an excellent 80 TZ at short. Trammell’s good glove and strong bat at a defensive position made him an especially productive player, evidenced by his 12 seasons of three or more fWAR. JAWS, the Hall of Fame evaluation system that averages a player’s career WAR with the WAR of his seven best seasons, rates Trammell higher than the average Hall of Fame shortstop, and higher than all-time greats like Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, Pee Wee Reese, and Luis Aparicio. While Trammell wasn’t as flashy and didn’t put up the kind of gaudy numbers as some Hall of Famers, he was a complete player whose overall production warrants serious consideration from the modern era committee.

Ted Simmons

Simmons is the other player on the ballot whom the analytics favor the most. One of the more underrated players in baseball history, Simmons hit .285/.348/.437 (116 wRC+), with 248 home runs, 1,389 RBIs, and 2,472 hits. While those numbers would be impressive for any position player, the fact that Simmons was a catcher makes them even more so. JAWS rates Simmons as the 10^th-best catcher of all time, just below the average Hall of Fame catcher, and directly between Hall of Famers Mickey Cochrane and Gabby Hartnett. Using FanGraphs’s version of WAR (instead of JAWS’s Baseball-Reference version), Simmons is actually better than the average Hall of Fame backstop. The catcher’s eight full seasons of a 120-or-better wRC+ and 12 seasons of three or more fWAR are testaments to his consistency and longevity as a productive major leaguer. Given the relatively short list of catchers in the Hall, perhaps it’s time to put Simmons’s career in that context and open the door to a seemingly worthy candidate.

Marvin Miller

Despite being the only non-player on the ballot, Miller has one of the stronger cases for induction. Miller led the MLB Players Association from 1966 to 1982 and, during that time, spearheaded several monumental changes to the game’s economic structure. For example, in 1968, Miller negotiated baseball’s first collective bargaining agreement, which increased player salaries and established a formal dispute resolution procedure for players and owners. Perhaps Miller’s greatest achievement was his role in ending baseball’s existing reserve clause and thereby introducing free agency to the game. Miller accomplished this by shepherding grievances from pitchers Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally through an arbitration hearing that culminated in the clause being declared void. Afterward, Miller negotiated baseball’s current contract system, which grants players free agency after six years of team control. Miller played a key role in raising players’ salaries, giving players more negotiating leverage with owners, and establishing a free agent system that gave players more control over their careers and fundamentally changed the landscape of baseball. Previous Veterans Committees came close to electing Miller several different times, so don’t be surprised if he gets the most votes of anyone on the ballot—and possibly even the 12 needed for induction—from this year’s committee.

Jack Morris

Perhaps the biggest name on the ballot, Morris came closer to induction than any non-Hall-of-Famer when he received an impressive 67.7% of the writers’ vote in 2013. However, Morris fell off the ballot the following year, his 15^th of eligibility, after once again falling short of the required 75%. The Jack Morris debate has been had for many years, and the arguments on both sides are pretty well known. On the one hand, the analytics aren’t particularly kind to Morris. His career 3.90 ERA (95 ERA-) and 3.94 FIP (95 FIP-) were only slightly better than league-average, and JAWS rates him well below the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. On the other hand, Morris won an exceptional 254 games, struck out 2,478 batters, and anchored championship rotations in Detroit, Minnesota, and Toronto. Given how close he came to election on the writers’ ballots, it’ll be very interesting to see how Morris fares with the new voting committee.

Don Mattingly

Like Morris, Mattingly was the subject of a long Hall of Fame debate during his 15 years of eligibility. Mattingly was excellent when healthy, hitting .307/.358/.471 (124 wRC+) over the course of his career, putting up four monster seasons from 1984 to 1987, and winning the 1985 American League MVP. Mattingly complemented his explosive bat with an outstanding glove that resulted in nine Gold Glove Awards and 33 TZ at first. Unfortunately, injuries ended Mattingly’s career at age 34, and the first baseman retired with 222 home runs, 1,099 RBIs, and 2,153 hits. While JAWS puts Mattingly comfortably below the Hall of Fame line at first, Mattingly’s supporters point to his tremendous peak as evidence of his Hall worthiness.

Dale Murphy

Murphy has a similar case as Mattingly and received an almost identical level of support from the writers. In his eighteen-year career, Murphy hit .265/.346/.469 (119 wRC+), with 398 home runs, 1,266 RBIs, and 2,111 hits. The outfielder had a huge run in the early-to-mid eighties, when he averaged well over 30 homers a year and won back-to-back MVPs in 1982 and 1983. Murphy’s Hall of Fame case, like Mattingly’s, appeals to voters who put a lot of weight on peak performance. Due to his lack of longevity as a dominant player, however, Murphy’s numbers fall a little short of most Hall of Fame outfielders’, and his JAWS ranking tells largely the same story.

Luis Tiant

While most baseball fans probably don’t regard Tiant as a Hall-of-Fame-caliber pitcher, he’s closer than you might think. The righty was one of the best pitchers in the American League from the mid-sixties to the late-seventies, compiling 229 wins, 2,416 strikeouts, a 3.30 ERA (87 ERA-), a 3.47 FIP (92 FIP-), and four 20-win seasons. JAWS ranks Tiant below the Hall of Fame line for starting pitchers, but high enough to put him in the conversation. In fact, JAWS places Tiant among the 50 best starters in baseball history and compares him favorably to “lower-tier” Hall of Famers like Jim Bunning, Don Sutton, and Catfish Hunter.

Tommy John

Tommy John is best known for the surgery named after him, which, unfortunately, has somewhat overshadowed an outstanding playing career. In a remarkable 26 major league seasons, the southpaw won 288 games, struck out 2,245 batters, and pitched to a 3.34 ERA (90 ERA-) and a 3.38 FIP (89 FIP-). While JAWS puts John safely below the Hall of Fame line, it puts him ahead of Hall of Famers like Hunter and Whitey Ford, and rewards him for the incredibly consistent production he provided his teams in well over two decades of work.

Steve Garvey

Garvey was a major force behind the winning Dodgers teams of the late-seventies and early-eighties. A 10-time All-Star, a 1981 World Series champ, and the 1974 NL MVP, Garvey compiled a lot of hardware over the course of his career. The first baseman retired with an impressive .294/.329/.446 batting line (116 wRC+), 272 home runs, 1,308 RBIs, and 2,599 hits, and generated a decent amount of support from the writers in his 15 years on the ballot. Although Garvey does not compare favorably to most Hall of Fame first basemen by JAWS, the fact that he got as much as 43% of the writers’ votes suggests that many have given his candidacy serious consideration.

Dave Parker

Parker was one of the most feared hitters in the National League in the late-seventies. The right fielder put up big years for the Pirates from 1975 to 1979, winning the MVP in 1978 and a championship the following season. Parker was a productive player in the eighties and won a second ring with Oakland in 1989 before retiring two years later with an exceptional .290/.339/.471 line (120 wRC+), 339 home runs, 1,493 RBIs, and 2,712 hits. JAWS rates Parker lower than the average Hall of Fame right fielder, but his combination of peak performance, championship hardware, and a mantleful of awards—including several Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All-Star Game selections, and an MVP—should get the voters’ attention.