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Mets predictions: Three-quarter-season update

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The Mets have played three quarters of their season. Let’s see how our preseason predictions are playing out!

New York Mets v Colorado Rockies Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The 2017 season hasn’t gone how most Mets fans would have predicted. Ravaged by injuries, the team struggled mightily before trading virtually all of their players on the verge of free agency.

As a result, many of our preseason predictions here at AA have not come to fruition. That said, the Mets have had a few bright spots this year, and perhaps that’s where we should focus our attention as we hit the three-quarter-season mark. All stats below are current as of Monday morning.

Best hitter

Michael Conforto has been by far the Mets’ best hitter in 2017. Among qualified players, the outfielder ranks first with a 143 wRC+, followed by Jay Bruce at 119 and Curtis Granderson at 113. Unfortunately, none of the Mets’ recently traded players will have enough plate appearances (502) with the team to hit the qualifying mark by the end of the season, meaning that this list will look very different in six weeks.

Rank Player Vote percent Player wRC+
1 Yoenis Cespedes 70% Michael Conforto 143
2 Michael Conforto 10% Jay Bruce 119
3 Neil Walker 5% Curtis Granderson 113

Best pitcher

In a sign of how badly the injury bug decimated the Mets’ rotation, two of the team’s three best pitchers this year have been relievers. By an average of fWAR and bWAR, Jacob deGrom leads the pack with 3.7, with relievers Addison Reed (1.4) and Jerry Blevins (1.1) coming in second and third, respectively. Noah Syndergaard could make a late push for the top three with a few dominant performances if and when he returns this year, with reliever Paul Sewald in striking distance as well.

Rank Player Vote percent Player WAR
1 Noah Syndergaard 53% Jacob deGrom 3.7
2 Jacob deGrom 38% Addison Reed 1.4
3 Robert Gsellman 2% Jerry Blevins 1.1

Best defender

One of the few predictable outcomes this year is that Juan Lagares has been the Mets’ best defensive player. Lagares leads Mets defenders by an average of DRS and UZR, with Jay Bruce (of all people) in second. The defensive metrics have been kind to Amed Rosario, who, despite his limited playing, ranked third in defensive output as of Monday morning.

Rank Player Vote percent Player Avg. DRS, UZR
1 Juan Lagares 35% Juan Lagares 7.0
2 Yoenis Cespedes 23% Jay Bruce 5.7
3 Asdrubal Cabrera 11% Amed Rosario 3.7

Best rookie

Rosario already snuck into third place on this list, as well, and will most likely top it by year’s end. By an average of fWAR and BWAR, T.J. Rivera slots ahead of Rosario among Mets rookies, with Sewald in first place. Both Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith are due for more playing time and looking a little more comfortable at the plate, meaning that one or both should be on this list in a few weeks.

Rank Player Vote percent Player WAR
1 Robert Gsellman 73% Paul Sewald 0.7
2 T.J. Rivera 10% T.J. Rivera 0.6
3 Amed Rosario 6% Amed Rosario 0.5

Best position player

Conforto, Bruce, and Granderson have not only been the Mets’ best hitters, but also their best position players overall. To measure this, we once again used an average of fWAR and bWAR, which account for offense, defense, and baserunning. Yoenis Cespedes is hovering just beyond the top three, and will almost definitely crack the list if he stays healthy for the rest of the year.

Rank Player Vote percent Player WAR
1 Yoenis Cespedes 65% Michael Conforto 3.6
2 Michael Conforto 7% Jay Bruce 2.3
3 Neil Walker 7% Curtis Granderson 1.8

Best overall player

Jacob deGrom and Michael Conforto have clearly been the Mets’ two best players this year. In fact, the two are within just one point of each other by an average of fWAR and bWAR. While Bruce currently holds the third spot, Cespedes may have something to say about that in a few weeks’ time.

Rank Player Vote percent Player WAR
1 Noah Syndergaard 37% Jacob deGrom 3.7
2 Yoenis Cespedes 34% Michael Conforto 3.6
3 Jacob deGrom 12% Jay Bruce 2.3

Team wins

Names like Cespedes, Syndergaard, Harvey, and Matz haven’t been mentioned on these lists as often as we would have predicted before the season started. That pretty much explains why the team is on pace to win just 72 games as of Monday morning. Hopefully with some strong play from their prospects, the Mets can salvage part of their season and creep their way back toward the .500 mark.

Rank Predicted wins Vote percent Win pace
1 90-92 38% 72
2 93-95 32%
3 87-89 13%