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AAOP: The Amazon Mets

There's a new GM in town for the Mets this offseason, which (hopefully) means there will be some changes around here. One of those changes should be our approach to the offseason. Scott Boras has mentioned the Mets' proclivity for "shopping at Fred's" in the past. Fred's usually has good discounts, don't get me wrong, but the quality often leaves something to be desired - most products there aren't durable and tend to break before midseason. It's time to shop somewhere else, where we can find a wider range of talent. And with a new location opening up nearby, I know just the place. That's right, I'm talking about Amazon. Now, let's take a look at the team as it currently stands constructed...

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There are a lot of needs to be addressed here. While our starting pitching was good last year and has the ability to be again (even with Vargas) the bullpen was awful. Seth Lugo and to a lesser extent Robert Gsellman had good years, but struggled when overworked. We need to get some bullpen help for them to keep that from happening this upcoming season.

The infield has a couple potential areas for upgrading. Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil were the everyday starters at shortstop and second base, and we can live with them there again, though it would be good to see more improvement from Rosario this coming season. Todd Frazier plays a good third base when healthy but missed a large chunk of last season due to injuries. The depth at third base looks pretty thin behind him. First base, by contrast, has a large number of people who could play there. Dominic Smith can play first base. Wilmer Flores can play first base. Jay Bruce can play first base. Todd Frazier can play first base. We would all like to see Peter Alonso play first base, but will probably have to wait until the end of April or beginning of May for that. Regardless, there's not really a need for a player at first base. Brodie Van Wagenen claims that this is true of catcher too, but the team could really use an upgrade there. Travis d'Arnaud is injured (again), Kevin Plawecki didn't really add the power he was hoping to last year, and Tomas Nido could really use some more seasoning in the minors.

The outfield looks less problematic, with the bats of Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto in the corner spots. However, the depth in the outfield is very thin. While both Nimmo and Conforto have the ability to play center field, they are not really center fielders. Jay Bruce can provide some power from a corner outfield spot from time to time, but that relies on him staying healthy (I'm sensing a pattern here). Juan Lagares, the one true center fielder of the bunch, is also the one who has the most trouble staying on the field. I would be a lot less concerned about the outfield if I thought that he could stay healthy for a whole season, or even two thirds of a season. As it is, we could really use another outfielder who can play good defense in center field. For the purposes of my roster construction, I'm making the assumption that Yoenis Cespedes won't be healthy this year. Any sort of production we get from him would be great, but I don't want to rely on his bat for the purposes of the Mets' needs.

In that vein, the Mets really, really need a good right handed hitter, or two, or three. The current lineup is very lefty heavy, and the strong right handed bats that the Mets have relied upon in past years are either injured (Cespedes) or have regressed (Flores). So, the Mets need to add a strong righty bat to the team, preferably at a position of need. Now, let's make some changes.

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Non tender Wilmer Flores (IF) and Travis d'Arnaud (C)

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I know, Wilmer, I'm sad too. Unfortunately, both of these players have big question marks surrounding them going into next year. Travis already had a problem throwing runners out at second base, and now he'll be trying to do it coming off elbow surgery. Wilmer Flores has Schrodinger's knees, which simultaneously do and do not have early onset arthritis. I can't imagine that this will help his defense any, which was already less than stellar. He'd probably still be able to play a passable first, but there are already a lot of options there. There's a chance he could become a lefty killer again, but if he doesn't, he's a position player with below average defense and minimal hitting threat. There's a chance that both of these players could return to form, but spending a combined $8.4 million on them seems a bit pricey for that kind of gamble. I could get a reliever for that kind of money.

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Jacob deGrom (RHP) - 7 years, $160 million (13/20/26/26/26/26/23)

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I know that's a lot of years, but Jacob deGrom is worth the price. He has less mileage on his arm than most pitchers his age. He has also shown pitching smarts that suggest that he will continue to adapt and improve to remain an effective pitcher as he gets older. deGrom will probably provide another four or five Cy Young caliber seasons, then have a few years where he remains a perfectly cromulent pitcher. If the Mets want to be serious about contending now, he's your guy to do it with.

Zack Wheeler (RHP) - 5 years, $60 million (5/10/15/15/15)

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Zack showed promise down the stretch this year, so now would be the time to lock him up for a comparatively cheap price. He will join deGrom as one of the staples of this rotation for many years to come. This move is not without its risks, but I would argue that in this case this is a risk worth taking.

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Yasmani Grandal (C) - 4 years, $57 million (13/14/15/15)

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This is a grand(al) way to begin our free agent spending. The Mets could use a catcher. They could also use a bat. Grandal provides both of these things. This puts Nido in the minors for depth and slides Plawecki to the backup catcher role. Yes, Grandal comes with a qualifying offer attached to him, but as Van Wagenen noted, the penalty for this is far less than it used to be. Grandal is also slightly younger, less injury prone, and a better defender than Wilson Ramos, the other big hitting catcher in free agency right now.

Jeurys Familia (RHP) - 5 years, $44 million (8/9/9/9/9)

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I didn't just do this signing so that I could say that we were bringing back a familia face. Ok, maybe I did a little bit. At 29 years old, Jeurys is one of the youngest relievers on the market, so I was more comfortable giving him a long term deal than I would be one of the other closer types nearing their mid thirties. He was very good for us for several seasons and helps stabilize our bullpen.

Andrew Miller (LHP) - 3 years, $29 million (8.5/10.5/10)

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Andrew Miller is not the reliever that he once was, which still makes him a very good reliever. The Mets have Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the pen as multi inning relievers, so Miller does not need to soak up innings like he used to do in the past. But he'd be very useful in the 7th or 8th inning of a close game that the Mets want to keep a close game. Miller's also a lefty, and the Mets need some of those in the pen. Also, his last name is a beer, and what Mets fan hasn't needed more beer from time to time?

Joe Kelly (RHP) - 2 years, $8 million (4/4)

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Kelly was good in the postseason,but had struggles throughout the year. In this reliever heavy market, he can be signed on the cheaper side of things, and he helps round out the bullpen. Also, with Ty Kelly gone, I kinda missed having a player with a name that makes them sound like they're a gangster from the 40s.

Oliver Perez (LHP) - 1 year, $2 million

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Ah yes, Ollie. Despite his struggles as a starter on the Mets in the past, he his become a pretty good LOOGY. We can use one of those guys. He can also be acquired on the cheap because of his age, and if he struggles or gets injured, there are arms in the minors that can take his place. Signing him gives the pen more flexibility and allows those young arms to develop at their own pace, so that we're not relying on them to be good in order to win games.

Eric Sogard (2B/SS/3B) - 1 year, $1.5 million

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Sogard essentially replaces Flores as our utility infielder. He had a bad year last year at the plate, but is one year removed from having an OPS of .770, and he is able to provide defensive depth at shortstop, second base, and third base. He also apparently plays to win, which is cool, I guess.

Drew Pomeranz (LHP) - 4 years, $36 million (7/8/8/9)

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Pomeranz is another player who had a down year last year, which allows us to sign him at a bit of a discount. He will round out the back end of the rotation. But wait, you say, isn't that six starting pitchers? Yes, but that's because I haven't gotten to the trades yet...

Amazon Acquisitions Through Third Party Sellers

Those are trades. Sorry, I'm running a bit thin on Amazon analogies here. Anyways, on to the trades.

Noah Syndergaard (RHP) and Todd Frazier (3B) to the Chicago Cubs for Kris Bryant (3B)

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I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, this is a stupid trade, and I know it's a stupid trade because they were suggesting something like it on Metsblog. Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day, unless if it's digital. Wait, no, that wasn't what I meant... let me explain why this makes sense. The Cubs don't think that they have enough cash to lock up Bryant long term, and they are in need of pitching help. The Cubs have a lot of guys that fall into the category of serviceable 2 or 3 starter, but they lack a true ace. Syndergaard gives them that true ace. Frazier acts as a short-term replacement for Bryant, to give the Cubs 3B prospect Jason Vosler more time to get ready for the majors if he needs it. The Mets get the strong right handed bat that they badly needed. Syndergaard will be missed from the Mets rotation, but as the budget is too small to keep Syndergaard and go after Machado instead, this seemed to be the next best option.

Gavin Cecchini (IF) to the Houston Astros for Myles Straw (OF)

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Cecchini and Straw are at comparable places within their respective organizations, in terms of development and ability to play in the majors. The Mets have many in the minors who can play a plethora of infield positions, and the Astros have a similar situation in their farm system with regards to outfielders. This is a trade, then, that helps both teams bolster their depth where it is needed. Straw becomes the fifth guy in the outfield for the Mets, with the ability to play all three outfield positions competently. He also stole seventy bases in the minors last year, so he gives the Mets the ability to come in late in games as either a pinch runner or a defensive sub.

Now that all of that's finished, let's see what the team looks like.

Position

Player

2019 Salary (millions)

Bats

CF

Juan Lagares

9

R

RF/CF

Brandon Nimmo

0.55

L

LF

Michael Conforto

4.4

L

RF/1B

Jay Bruce

14

L

OF

Myles Straw

0.55

R

1B

Dominic Smith

0.55

L

2B

Jeff McNeil

0.55

L

SS

Amed Rosario

0.55

R

3B

Kris Bryant

12.4

R

C

Yasmani Grandal

13

S

C

Kevin Plawecki

1.3

R

2B/SS/3B

Eric Sogard

1.5

L

IF

T.J. Rivera

0.55

R

DL

Yoenis Cespedes

29

R

Retired

David Wright

3.75

R

Position

Player

2019 Salary (millions)

Throws

SP

Jacob deGrom

13

R

SP

Zack Wheeler

5

R

SP

Steven Matz

3

L

SP

Drew Pomeranz

7

L

SP

Jason Vargas

8

L

BP

Jeurys Familia

8

R

BP

Andrew Miller

8.5

L

BP

Seth Lugo

0.55

R

BP

Robert Gsellman

0.55

R

BP

Oliver Perez

2

L

BP

Anthony Swarzak

8.5

R

BP

Joe Kelly

4

R

Total Salary: $159.75 million

And now for some quick closing thoughts about what I've put together here. I wanted to give the Mets some depth that they haven't had in a while, where we have a strong group of players that we can put on the field, but it's not the end of the world if someone gets injured. Flexibility was also important to me, both in how the team can send out its lineup every day, to who comes in off the bench, to what the bullpen looks like. I fully expect that at least someone will get injured, but we have bullpen arms in the minors now (who pretty made up the major league bullpen last year) who should be able to help with that. The depth of arms in the minors also allows for leeway with the starting pitching - if Vargas isn't doing well, he can be replaced with Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman without worrying that there's no one else in the bullpen that can get people out. We also have starting pitching prospects in Dunn and Peterson that have the potential to be ready and help the team at some point this upcoming season. I feel that the hitting situation is also improved here. Look at what we could do with the lineup:

Vs RHP:

CF Nimmo (L)

2B McNeil (L)

3B Bryant (R)

LF Conforto (L)

C Grandal (S)

RF Bruce (L)

1B Smith (L)

pitcher's spot

SS Rosario (R)

Vs LHP:

RF Nimmo (L)

3B Bryant (R)

LF Conforto (L)

C Grandal (S)

2B McNeil (L)

CF Lagares (R)

1B Bruce (L)

pitcher's spot

SS Rosario

I like the potential that this lineup has, and it could improve even more when Alonso is called up or (if we're really, really lucky) Cespedes becomes healthy again. The hope is that this creates a team that is versatile and dangerous in many different ways, that can be a contender on a regular basis. And that's my AAOP. I'll leave you with this image of the new decision making team in the front office:

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