FanPost

Dominic Smith's Minor League #s

I wanted to headline this "Is Dominic Smith Underrated?" Catches the eye. But it might seem like I'm just being swayed by a couple of nice games in Coors. And who exactly am I talking about who is underrating him? He's gotten some top 100 love in the past, although he's been a bit polarizing. Some prospect gurus liked him more than others, Keith Law among them. And everyone said he could be a high average hitter. But at 1b you have to really produce.

I started thinking more about Dom's minor league performance when, on the Rotographs section of Fangraphs recently, the excellent Jeff Zimmerman was writing about major league team line-up changes and their impact for fantasy team purposes. He noted that Smith was now the Mets' first baseman (written prior to his recent left field run) but said he doesn't hit enough to be a major league first basemen. Going into more detail, he said the more pessimistic projections don't have him as a usable option in a 15 team roto league. Jeff goes on to add that Dom only had a .110 ISO and 2 home runs in 248 PA this year in the hitter friendly PCL.

In fairness to Jeff, he's covering a lot of players, and this is a quick, and not unreasonable, take. Going by current projections for this year, yes, not a likely fantasy stud. Now, my intent here is not so much to discuss Dom's fantasy impact, although I personally am interested in that as well. That said, I did add in the comments to Jeff's piece that Smith's ZIPS projection was, at that time,.272/.323/.428, 100 wRC+. Not great for 1B, but if you are talking waiver wire, perhaps serviceable depending on your league.

I also pointed out that Jake Bauers, now 39 in Fangraph's mid-season rankings of top prospects (Dom last year was ranked around 70th by FG), was a recent call-up and getting some roto love, but his minor league numbers aren't really better than Smith's. Yes, this year he's been better than Smith. But we have a whole body of AAA numbers to look at, and lower levels.

Bauers and Smith have both been lauded for their hit tools, with power mostly raw and not game-level so far, but even their raw power numbers aren't elite. They have to hit a lot to have value. Here are their AAA career numbers:

Bauers: .268/.365/.416 .148 ISO 122 wRC+

Smith: .308/.372/.470 .163 ISO 120 wRC+

Bauers is 4 months younger, is faster. A lot faster, albeit not a burner, it's just that Dom is that slow. He can also play the outfield, and despite Dom being tried there, Bauers has more defensive versatility. Due to the IL versus PCL offensive discount, Bauer's line has a slight wRC+ edge. He has a great eye, and has walked more than Dom, but also struck out more. Yet, for a guy lauded for his hit tool, Bauers has not run high batting averages, unlike Dom.

Bauers was a recent hot recent waiver wire option in roto leagues, Smith not as much. But I suspected Dom was a nice consolation prize for later drafters. I pointed out that there may be a number of reasons for Dom's slump so far this year. He'd lost a lot of weight, perhaps sapping some strength. Maybe disappointment at being back in PCL. He was coming off the Spring quad injury (basically missed Spring Training). But all just armchair guess-work.

Smith's ISO spiked in the majors last year, allaying some power concerns. In fact Jeff Zimmerman had himself written that minor leaguers' home run numbers were spiking in the majors. So not unusual, but had Dom sold out for power? His K rate had rocketed in the majors, too, last year.

One last thing I noted was that Brandon Nimmo had likewise torn up the PCL in an earlier go 'round then slumped badly there last year. This didn't stop him doing better in the majors last year than he'd done in AAA, and breaking out big-time this year in the majors. One doesn't lead to the other, but I think that's another reason to look at the whole body of evidence, and scouts' takes, before putting too much weight on the just the most recent 250 or so PAs at AAA.

Digging deeper, how good were Dom's AAA numbers before this year's slump? We know scouts have said he has a hit tool, makes hard contact to all fields. Power was the question, although many suggested more would come, if not monster power.

Dom's minor league numbers before this year were quite good, and better than at superficial glance. He has usually been young for his level. This is his age 23 year, but he's at the tail-end of the age 23 cohort, having just turned 23 in the middle of June. If his birthday was July 1 this would be his age 22 year. Arbitrary, but at lower levels it makes more of a difference.

In 2017 Dom was 10th in the PCL in wRC+ at 134. Sure, it's Vegas. Which doesn't actually inflate homers. And no one ranked ahead of Dom was younger. It was also Franchy Cordero's age 22 season last year, but he was born 9 months before Dom.

In 2016 Dom was also 10th in the EL in wRC+ at 130, 30% above league average, in his age 21 season, and again, no one younger was ahead of him.

In 2015, a year when he didn't turn 20 until June, Dom was 6th in the FSL in wRC+ at 133, playing in a power-suppressing league in a power suppressing park. Again, no one younger ahead of him, although Austin Meadows, also currently outperforming his minor league numbers in the majors in a small sample, is only a month younger.

Dom hit .300 or better each year, was 30% or more better than league average each year despite being young for the levels.

Here's where it gets interesting, and where even the annual 130+ wRC+ #s may sell him short. At each level (at least prior to this year's AAA slump), Dom took a short time to get acclimated, and then tore the level apart.

In 2015, in his last 422 plate appearances in A+ ball, Dom hit .332/.379/.461. 154 wRC+. Still just a .130 ISO, but a big improvement from his early season numbers, and the overall hides just how good he was as a 19-20 year old in the Florida State League.

In 2016 at AA, in Dom's last 265 plate appearances, he hit .348/.419/.554, with a .206 ISO and a 171 wRC+. With a 10.9% walk and K rate. 10 homers and 16 doubles. A 25 homer, 40 double pace over 665 PA (a full season for a typical middle of the order hitter).

In 2017, in Dom's last 289 plate appearances, he hit .346/.401/.559, with a .213 ISO and a 149 wRC+. 11 HR and 21 doubles. A 25 homer and 48 double pace over a full season.

I think Dom's minor league numbers get undersold. Sure, I cherry-picked start points, but each year his numbers got better and better until he explodes and carries it through season's end. Those aren't really tiny samples but 250 at bats + to close out a season every year. Furthermore, early on he was in pitchers leagues. Then he's in a hitters league and park. It skews perceptions. But he was consistently a league leader, regularly 30% plus above league average, with no one younger doing any better. And each year he got better and better as the year went on, his hit tool spiking, his power numbers increasing.

If his hit tool is't questioned, and power is the main concern, he has put up 25 homer pace with gobs of doubles in the second half of each of the past 2 years in the minors before this year, while batting over .340. And he's had a 30 homer pace over 650 PA in the majors.

One can't ignore that he slumped in the PCL this year for whatever reason. And that his K rate has spiked in the majors. Can he get the Ks under control, or get the BABIP and BBs up closer to his minor league numbers, making the power trade-off palatable? We'll see. But, going by his whole track record in context, and what scouts have said about his hit tool and power potential, I think he will put it all together. I'm especially impressed by how he improved to the point of being a league dominant player at each level, A+, AA and AAA in the 2nd half of his first year of exposure to the level.

At the major league level, in still a small sample, he's already demonstrated major league power, the one tool that was somewhat questioned. I think the hit tool will come around. He has a much higher ceiling than a cursory look at his minor league numbers suggest, and even with a cursory look his minor league numbers are pretty good. The more I dug into the numbers the better he looked. He has to keep the weight in check and continue to apply himself, and it seems like he has been putting in the effort. But I think he could end up being much better than I ever realized.

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