5-6-7-8-9-10 I love you!
With a little luck Mets fans will be All Together Now reveling to the Beatles during a post-vaccine Championship Parade next October.
We all agree on the essentials - terrific offensive core, thin SP, sucky defense and a bullpen about as predictable as Kanye. Lot's of stars ... but too many glaring holes. The best pitcher in baseball without a bonafide catcher to throw to.
Let's start with the Mets 2021 Fab Four.
1. John - the smart one with all the skills
J.T. Realmuto is the complete package who fills the Mets biggest positional need. His career wRC+ is 24 points higher than the 2019 league-wide catcher average while his last 3 seasons is 33 points higher. He's a terrific framer who controls the running game. Speaking of running - he's one of the best baserunners in the sport and his athleticism speaks to either an extended tenure behind the plate or making an easy transition to the field when he's done squatting for a living. He's also caught 109 games fewer than Mike Piazza and 289 fewer than Gary Carter heading into their age 30 seasons. He's the cream of the FA market and the new leader of the Mets. I've budgeted 5/$116m - $23.3m AAV. That's the Fangraphs AAV but on a 5 year deal instead of their projected 6 year estimate. It allows him to claim the highest AAV ever among catchers. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for less.
2. Paul - the "Cute One" who always delivers
The next positional need is to extend the up-the-middle defense that JT's acquisition improves. And predictably I've set my sights on another 2-way player at the top of the FA class. You've no doubt guessed I'm going after George Springer. His 2020 WAR extrapolated to 5.1 which is a solid follow-up to 2019's 6.5. Did I mention he's posted 146 & 156 wRC+ the past two seasons? I've budgeted Fangraphs 5/$115m estimate.
3. George - Underrated and Steady
The biggest Mets need is obviously the rotation. The top-guy (Trevor Bauer) is too tough a read for me to roll the dice on. So we're left with a bunch of above average choices without real stand-outs. So we'll start with the low-key, steady yet talented "George" of our group - Charlie Morton at the 1/$8m deal projected by MLBTR. I think he and Jake will feed off of each other - they're both students of the art of pitching. I wouldn't be surprised if the back-end of Jake's career benefits from a year watching Charlie.
4. Ringo - Doesn't his name say it all?
Was he a great drummer or just the drummer in history's greatest band? Some questions are unanswerable. So we'll continue to build out the rotation with a question that doesn't yet have an answer: Is Tomoyuki Sugano the next Yu Darvish or will we forget he ever played ball in 24 months? I'm turning east to bolster the rotation with someone that will give us a different look. Hopefully he'll capture the hearts of baseball fans from Queens to Tokyo and have them chanting "Ikimashoo metsu!". What's a Tomoyuki Sugano? Perhaps the best current starting pitcher in Japan coming off another stellar 2.02 ERA in the NPB. The two-time Japanese Cy-Young winner and MVP only sports a 92-93 mph fastball but features pinpoint 1.7 bb/9 control. The 31 year-old is reportedly likely - but not a certainty - to be posted. He's a wild-card and I haven't found any contract estimates so I'm penciling him at 4/$40m which equals the $10m AAV that Yu Darvish got in his first deal. Yes it's years later but Darvish was 25 at the time and more highly regarded.
Then Came Yoko to break up the band ...
Operator - get me Cleveland on the line. This one is going to hurt. I'm ready for the rotten fruit to be hurled my way... I'm proposing further bolstering the rotation and improving IF defense but I'm not going after Lindor. I'm going after the oft-mentioned Carlos Carrasco and stud 3Ber Jose Ramirez. Their combined 2021 salaries equal the $21m that Lindor will make. We keep Carlos for 2 years (and a 3rd yr. option) & Jose for 3. The price is the big man Mr. Pete Alonso ...Thomas Szapucki, Mark Vientos, Franklyn Kilome & Steven Matz - if they'll have him. I recognize the Mets are giving up several pieces but this is considered an even value trade at the Baseball Trade Values simulator. If the market would demand less then by all means save Vientos. I see Szapucki as a multi-inning bullpen piece who is nice to have but...
I know I'm on an island here. All I can say is imagine if Pete could play above average defense at 3B. That's what we're getting in the 29-year old Ramirez and he's on a team friendly 3/$33m deal while Pete is only controlled for one extra year. Simply put, Ramirez is more valuable than Pete and the Indians don't need to deal him.
The payoff? Carrasco (2/$24m w/3rd year option for $14m) gives the rotation ample depth, switch-hitter Ramirez is another guy (like Realmuto & Springer) who plays both sides of the ball and opens 1B for Dom full-time which further tightens up the defense.
1-2-3-4 Can I Have A Little More?
What's left? Some behind the scene guys like George Martin and George Best who only come out of their studio at the end of the night or play a few gigs before they're abandoned at a dusty Motel 6 in Tulsa - the bullpen.
The bullpen is where variance abounds. With Lugo moved out of the rotation I actually believe it's in decent shape. Diaz, Familia & Lugo are a strong trio for those nights that starters can get through six. But the Steve Cohen led Mets never settle for merely decent! The best reliever on the market is Liam Hendricks who Fangraphs says can be had for 3/$30m - done. Let's also add Trevor May's high-90's fastball and 2020 40% k-rate for 2/$12m. Jason Castro is an intruiging wild-card while Brach, Shreve and Betances are a solid back end. I like this bullpen a lot.
Meet the Metsles
So we've got an offense that should absolutely crush. 8 of the 9 hitters had a wRC+ of 125 or higher last season and 7 of 9 were 130+. And just about all are 2-way strengths - 2B is the only sketchy defensive slot unless Nimmo bombs in LF.
Our rotation lacks multiple marquee dominators but is filled with #3's across the board with an import who could surprise. And if Thor returns to form - whoa. But this defense should provide a much bigger safety net than any recent rotation has been afforded. I could have gone with Stroman but it would have cost us a defender and he's the guy most dependent on defense. Plus we need his draft pick since we'll sacrifice two for signing Springer and Realmuto.
Gimenez is my starting SS until he proves he's not up to it. I'm using spring training to try to turn Rosario into a 5th outfielder with Jake Marisnick re-upped as the 4th. McNeil/Cano will rotate at 2B and they will also rotate with JD Davis at DH. The bench is JD, Nido, Guillorme & Marisnick.
My budget includes the $4m to decline options for Ramos, Chirinos & Frazier and 29 players to give us some minor league depth even though there will only be 26 + Thor on the IL.
As they say in Tokyo "Ikimashoo metsu!"
The Budget
Wilson Ramos |
$1,500,000 |
Robinson Chirinos |
$1,000,000 |
Todd Frazier |
$1,500,000 |
Option Buyouts |
$4,000,000 |
Jacob deGrom |
$22,000,000 |
Noah Syndergaard |
$9,700,000 |
Carlos Carrasco |
$12,000,000 |
Tomoyuki Sugano |
$10,000,000 |
Charlie Morton |
$9,000,000 |
David Peterson |
$580,000 |
Liam Hendricks |
$10,000,000 |
Edwin Diaz |
$5,600,000 |
Seth Lugo |
$2,400,000 |
Jeurys Familia |
$11,000,000 |
Trevor May |
$6,000,000 |
Miguel Castro |
$1,300,000 |
Brad Brach |
$1,250,000 |
Chasen Shreve |
$800,000 |
Dellin Betances |
$6,000,000 |
Brandon Nimmo |
$3,300,000 |
George Springer |
$23,000,000 |
Michael Conforto |
$10,100,000 |
J.T. Realmuto |
$23,333,333 |
Dom Smith |
$1,900,000 |
Jose Ramirez |
$9,000,000 |
Jeff McNeil |
$580,000 |
Robinson Cano |
$20,250,000 |
Andres Gimenez |
$580,000 |
J.D. Davis |
$1,700,000 |
Amed Rosario |
$1,800,000 |
Jake Marisnkick |
$1,500,000 |
Luis Guillorme |
$580,000 |
Tomas Nido |
$580,000 |
29 players + Option Buyouts |
$209,833,333 |
NOTE: No actual Beatles or other animals were harmed in the making of this AAOP - except for one Polar Bear.