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AAOP: Any Hedge Fund Managers?

Hello, AA! Normally I don't write one of these, mostly due to the depressing nature of the payroll, which has severely limited our options for the past few years decade. In fact, I think this is the first one I've written in seven years, and that entire AAOP consisted of one trade and a few one-year deals and minor league signings. This year, we finally have a new owner, as Steve Cohen has graced us with his disgusting hedge fund money, lifelong Mets fandom, and a chance to act a bit differently this offseason. I've been looking through other teams' payrolls, trying to find bad deals we may be able to absorb while taking back superior talent in return, and decided to write them down and make an AAOP. Hopefully, teams are hurting enough financially to send off some talent for salary relief. For the purposes of this AAOP, we're going to assume they are.

As of this writing, the qualifying offer given to Marcus Stroman has been accepted and the player options and team options for Dellin Betances, Brad Brach, Robinson Chirinos, Todd Frazier, and, Wilson Ramos have been accepted and declined, respectively, so I'm going include those. I'm also going to tender contracts for every arbitration eligible player except Guillermo Heredia.

Take Care of Your Own

For a franchise that has played since 1962, the Mets have had remarkably few players that have played for them past the year they were first eligible for free agency. Per Baseball-Reference, the Mets only have ten players that have played at least 1,000 games with the team. There are four teams created at the same time or later than the Mets that have more such players in their history: Astros (1962, 20), Royals (1969, 12), Brewers (1969, 12), Blue Jays (1977, 11 - rounded to 12 for Edwin Encarnacion's 999). Even the Mariners (1977, 9) and the Rockies (1993, 8) seem to keep more of their players around than the Mets. So, what gives? Well, it's probably a combination of a lack of well-developed position players and a lack of ambitious ownership. The Mets have neither of those problems now, and Sandy Alderson should get a chance to complete his vision for the team he first started working on ten years ago. Mets fans are starved for these kinds of players, and we have a few that are perfect extension candidates. During Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson's introductory press conference, Alderson said one of their goals was "to create an iconic major league franchise respected for its success -- competitive and financial success -- and how it achieves that success and for its commitment to fans and community." Iconic, being the key word. The Mets need more Icons, more recognizable long-term players. The most iconic franchise in baseball, the cross-town Yankees, have fourty-four 1,000 game players in their history. I first really started to notice the dearth of such players in our franchise's history when noticing Brett Gardner (1548 games, 16th most for the Yankees) would rank third in Mets history for most games played. That kind of sucks.

Michael Conforto: 6 years, $120 million with $15 million player option

Michael Conforto is the most obvious candidate in need of an extension, as he's just one year away from free agency. This is probably the best position player the Mets have developed since David Wright. When Conforto was called up I recall him being pegged as a slow, bat-first (or bat-only) guy, but he's really turned into a player where all five tools more or less exist, even if most of them are average. His defense is no issue, his arm has shown various signs of brilliance, and his speed is mostly average, although he's been a good baserunner. Of course, hit bat did end up being his best tool, so I have no problem giving him an extension and being happy with the player Conforto turns into as he enters his 30s.

Brandon Nimmo: 5 years, $70 million with $15 million player option

Brandon Nimmo is a very similar player to Conforto. Sure, they can both fake it in center, but you'd feel a lot more comfortable with them in a corner spot. I have less issues with Nimmo in center than most - I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility he improves with improvements in preparation the Mets will might have under a new owner, but I'm also not allergic to dealing with below average defense in center given Nimmo's bat (but we're going to work on it anyway later on the AAOP.) Given his offense is less traditionally sexy than Conforto's, he might be undervalued in the market despite being a better hitter than Conforto in their careers. Or maybe not. It is 2020, I think OBP might be on the scoreboard at this point.

Jeff McNeil: 6 years, $48 million

I love Jeff McNeil. His batting lines have been disgustingly consistent in his time as a major leaguer, he's average or above average at four different positions, depending on who you ask, and he's one of our guys. One of those guys that Alderson's front office drafted and developed, someone whose grission and versatility will propel us to victory for many years. Unfortunately for Jeff, he debuted late and will likely miss out on a big payday but will get his money here. The Mets buy out three of McNeil's free agency years at the cost of an immediate pay raise during his arbitration years.

Noah Syndergaard: 2 years, $30 million

Truth be told, I have no idea what a floater contract for Noah Syndergaard would look like. I haven't done any research, but this guy is a stud and is absolutely a part of the team's future, and I want to let him know he's not rehabbing for free agency next year. I have very little doubt Noah will come back strong from Tommy John Surgery, although there's always a risk.

Making That Big, Billionaire Splash

Steve Cohen is no fool, but he's also not modest. If he wants to make a statement that the Mets are now a serious destination that players should no longer ignore, the best way to do it is to, well, do it. There are a few free agents that are a great fit, but only one of them is a perfect fit.

Sign C J.T. Realmuto to a 5-year, $100 million dollar contract with two $15 million player options

J.T. Realmuto is by far the best catcher in the game. During the past three seasons, he has:

  • been a top three hitter at the position by wRC+
  • ranked as an above average framer all three years (top 6 the past two seasons) - per Statcast
  • ranked number one in catcher poptime each season, as well as top 3 in pure throw velocity (note: his arm is very good) - per Statcast
  • been the only catcher in baseball to provide positive value on the basepaths - 14th in baseball during this timeframe - per FanGraphs

I know many have reservations signing any player to a contract this long (I just did it four times!), let alone a catcher, but this guy is in a league of his own at his position. The drop-off to signing James McCann or going straight defense with someone like Tomas Nido is huge. If there is any catcher who is going to age gracefully, it's one that is by far the most athletic in the game. The only scary thing is that as a catcher, he could take a few bops in the head and be forced to move away from the position, but this isn't Joe Mauer we're talking about, he's not a statue. He'd immediately be the third fastest player on the team behind Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. The dude's a stud and fills our biggest hole. Let's do it. If not for any of the previously mentioned reasons, for the major bad vibes I get from the parallels to the Matt Holliday vs. Jason Bay decision.

Sign P Liam Hendriks to a 3-year, $30 million dollar contract with a $10 million player option

Hendriks is an elite reliever who limits home runs, walks, and can go multiple innings when needed. I referenced FanGraphs' Contract Crowdsource post for this one and added an option because I seem to be doing that.

Sign P Brad Hand to a 3-year, $24 million dollar contract

Same as above. Hopefully, these guys aren't concerned about savezzz, because we're moving past that baby.

Finding Cheap Owners

Now comes the real reason I decided to sit down and write this AAOP. The presumption around the league is that owners are going to be looking to shed salary due to the losses from the shortened COVID-19 2020 season. My presumption is that Steve Cohen is going to be looking to capitalize on this. I verified these trades using the Baseball Trade Values tool, and they seem to line up. It's possible these teams won't really be looking to shed these contracts or won't be willing to part with young talent to do so, but for right now, they are.

Mets acquire P Blake Snell and OF Kevin Kiermaier from the Rays for 3B Brett Baty, P Matt Allan, C Tomas Nido, and P Corey Oswalt

Maybe it's insane to think the Rays would trade Blake Snell for anything less than a top-10 prospect, but maybe not. Over the past two seasons, Snell has only thrown 157 innings in 34 starts. That's less than five innings per start! Maybe the Rays just don't view any starter as being capable of going through the order more than twice, and if that's the case, why should they ever pay any pitcher beyond their controllable years? Snell's salary starts increasing in 2021 and increases each year of his three-year extension. Kevin Kiermaier's salary similarly begins increasing in 2021 and despite still being a solid player, the Rays might not want to pay a guy who has only had 500 plate appearances in a season once, five years ago.

Mets acquire P Frankie Montas, P A.J. Puk, and OF Stephen Piscotty from the Athletics for P Edwin Diaz, 3B/OF J.D. Davis, and P Franklyn Kilome

I really want to trade Edwin Diaz right now while he still might have some value. I don't harbor any resentment towards the guy for being part of a bad trade, but most of my great memories of Diaz still come from watching him close out the Mariners games I'd watch after the Mets in 2018. He's going to be expensive in arbitration due to his saves and I'd just rather not have the headache anymore. In this trade the Mets get a controllable mid-rotation (and maybe more) starter in Frankie Montas, a guy who looks like he might be an elite bullpen arm in A.J. Puk, and take on a poor contract in Stephen Piscotty, who has 2 years, $15 million and a $15 million team option left. The A's get a player who can come close to replicating what they're losing in Liam Hendriks and a cheap, maybe elite hitter in J.D. Davis that can fill Piscotty's platoon role. Will the A's do this? Yes, absolutely! They will absolutely trade a controllable starter and a pre-arb left-handed reliever who throws 97 MPH for a volatile reliever and a DH to save 16 million dollars!

Mets acquire C/OF Daulton Varsho, OF Tim Locastro, and INF Eduardo Escobar for SS Amed Rosario, SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Stephen Piscotty, C Ali Sanchez, and cash

This trade is more of a prospect swap than a salary dump. It's also probably unlikely to happen, I just love some of the players we're getting back. I don't think the Diamondbacks have any real reason to trade Daulton Varsho considering he rated as a plus outfielder last season in addition to playing catcher, but I'm pretending they find him redundant considering the presence of Carson Kelly. Contrary to what I said above, J.T. Realmuto was not the fastest catcher in baseball last season, it was Varsho. He's a bit of a work in progress defensively at catcher but as I said above, he rated as plus-plus in both left and center field last season, so his role on the team won't be relegated to backup catcher. Tim Locastro is one of my favorite players in baseball; he has an elite HBP tool (27 in 347 career PA), is the fastest player in baseball, and has yet to be caught stealing in his career (26 for 26.) Oh yeah, he's also been an above average hitter (101 wRC+.) He is the quintessential role player for a winning team. He also went to high school in Auburn, New York and attended Ithaca College, if that sort of thing gives any extra grission points. Eduardo Escobar was dreadful last season but was an above average regular in 2018 and 2019 and is a versatile defender. In order to make the roster work, I had to ship off Piscotty and $10 million to complete the salary dump portion of the trade.

Minor League Signings/Spring Training Invites

C Sandy Leon
INF Adeiny Hechavarria
INF/OF Chris Owings
OF Jorge Bonifacio
OF Guillermo Heredia
OF Domingo Santana
P Chase Anderson
P Robbie Erlin
P Keone Kela
P Tommy Milone
P Hector Rondon

This list can become a lot more enticing once we find out who gets non-tendered and just how poor the market might look for decent bench pieces, but this will do for now. The 40-man roster looks to have two free spots at this point. The Mets should look for cheap bullpen pieces to compete for jobs with potentially sunk-cost relievers in Betances and Brach. They should also look to protect against some handedness deficiencies. We added a lot of speed and defense, so having a few mashers for depth might not be too bad.

The Team

Rotation

Jacob deGrom
Blake Snell
Marcus Stroman
Frankie Montas
Steven Matz

Bullpen

Liam Hendriks
Brad Hand
Seth Lugo
Jeurys Familia
Dellin Betances
Miguel Castro
Brad Brach
Chasen Shreve

Lineup

LF - Brandon Nimmo
3B - Jeff McNeil
DH - Pete Alonso
RF - Michael Conforto
1B - Dominic Smith
C - J.T. Realmuto
2B - Robinson Cano
CF - Kevin Kiermaier
SS - Andres Gimenez

Bench

C/OF Daulton Varsho
INF Eduardo Escobar
INF Luis Guillorme
OF Tim Locastro

Optionable Depth

P Robert Gsellman
P David Peterson
P A.J. Puk
P Drew Smith
P Thomas Szapucki
P Nick Tropeano
P Daniel Zamora
C Patrick Mazeika
INF Robel Garcia

Non-Optionable Depth

P Jacob Barnes
P Ariel Jurado
P Paul Sewald

Conclusion

We've greatly improved the rotation, acquiring Blake Snell and Frankie Montas, pushing David Peterson to minor league depth with Noah Syndergaard recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The righty-lefty tandem of Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand is going to be one of the best in baseball. The back end of the bullpen might be a bit of a mess, but once the season starts there should be no fear of moving on from Dellin Betances or Brad Brach if they struggle. There are a few DFA options near the back end of the 40-man roster should an improvement, namely of the relief pitcher variety, show up before spring training. The lineup is solid. We don't have any glaring holes and have improved defensively, shifting Brandon Nimmo to left field for Kevin Kiermaier and Dominic Smith to first base, making Pete Alonso the de-facto DH. I'm still not completely afraid to start Nimmo in center if need be, but there will always be a suitable late-game replacement on the bench if he does. The bench adds two guys with elite speed in Daulton Varsho and Tim Locastro. The team does appear to have a bit of a lefty-heavy presence, but I'm not scared of Nimmo, Smith, or Michael Conforto playing every day against lefties. If they need days off, we'll be smart and schedule them with matchups in mind. Locastro has reverse splits, but he doesn't have a huge sample size and I'm gambling that won't hold up. He can platoon with Kiermaier in center. Late-game, if we need to pinch hit for Kiermaier, Eduardo Escobar is a switch hitter who has historically been better against lefties. I think this is a playoff team with many core pieces now signed long-term. It's an exciting time to be a Mets fan. For the first time in a long time, I feel great optimism for the years to come, as opposed to the normal dread come AAOP season. Thank you for reading!

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