Matz is coming off the short 2020 season that was his worst yet as a major league pitcher. He finished the year with a 9.68 ERA and 7.76 FIP in 30.2 innings of work. He made six starts and three relief appearances, and while his strikeout rate ticked up, home runs were a serious issue for him, as he gave up more than four of them per nine innings of work.
While it seems incredibly unlikely that Matz will ever regain the form that made him so exciting earlier in his career, he was a serviceable major league starter in 2018 and 2019, finishing those years with a 3.97 and 4.21 ERA, respectively, and pitching 314.1 innings in the process. That’s a source of hope, but the Mets absolutely should not guarantee him a rotation spot—or even a roster spot—for the start of the season.