ZiPS projections predict the Mets finish third in the NL East

The projected standings of the ZiPS projection system, run by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, expects the Mets to go 87-75, finishing four games back of the Nationals and three behind the Braves in the division, ending the season in a tie with the Padres for the second Wild Card spot. The projections, which simulate the season one million times and utilize the average outcomes for their final numbers, see the Mets as having a 19.6% chance to win the NL East, and a 49.4% chance to make the playoffs overall. They’re also tapped for a 3.2% chance at winning the World Series, fifth-highest in the National League behind the Dodgers, Nats, Braves, and Cubs.

ZiPS sees the NL East as one of the tighter division races in the league, with four clubs (Washington, Atlanta, New York, and Philadelphia) finishing above .500, and only Miami a distant fifth at 68-94. The lack of what ZiPS perceives as a “super-team” makes it one of the more uncertain divisions in the league, along with the NL Central and AL Central. Conversely, the Dodgers are expected to clear the 87-75 Padres by 14 games, finishing 101-61 with 98.8% playoff odds and the highest odds of a World Series win in the NL at 17.9%. They trail only the Yankees, who are expected to go 100-62, with 97.7% playoff odds, and an 18.3% shot at winning the title. On the low end of things, both the Mariners and Orioles are expected to lose at least 100 games, with the Orioles expected to take the No. 1 overall pick for the second time in three years with a 58-104 projection.

This release comes on the heels of the release of FanGraphs’ projected standings and playoff odds, which give an even split of credence to the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems, and use FanGraphs’ own predictions for depth charts and playing times instead of Szymborski’s, which feed the pure ZiPS standings. The combined projections had the Mets as a 86.6-75.4 team, finishing second in the NL East, sandwiched by less than a game in either direction by Washington on top and Atlanta below. The combined projections are a bit higher on the Mets, projecting them as a playoff team 58.6% of the time and their odds at taking the division title at just over 30%.