Mets prepare for one last hurrah at home in four-game series with Marlins

The Mets (73-82) return home for one last time in 2021 as they finish off the home schedule with four games against the Marlins (64-91). The Mets swept Miami at Citi Field back in August and have won four out of the five games they’ve played with them at their home park. When incorporating the road games into the mix, the story is completely different, which has resulted in New York dropping eight of 15 overall games to Miami.

The Mets were swept by the Brewers over the weekend, which officially ended their already diminished playoff hopes. Things looked promising on Friday night, as the Mets got a quick run two batters into the game and loaded the bases before James McCann struck out to end the inning without any more runs. Milwaukee immediately tied up the game on a Kolten Wong leadoff homer off Tylor Megill. Willy Adames and Christian Yelich went back-to-back in the third, which sealed New York’s fate. After the first inning, they let Eric Lauer settle into a groove and collected just two more hits the rest of the way as they fell 5-1.

The Mets dropped the middle game of their series in Milwaukee by a 2-1 score. The game turned into a pitcher’s duel between the Cy Young-worthy Corbin Burnes and the crafty veteran Rich Hill. The Brewers got two off the Mets’ left-hander in the third, and the Mets got a run back off Burnes in the fourth, but that was all the scoring for the game. Burnes turned in seven strong, while Hill gave New York his typical five solid innings, and the offense was once again stagnant in defeat.

The Mets closed out their winless road trip with an 8-4 loss on Sunday, which helped Milwaukee clinch the NL Central crown. The Mets jumped in front on a Francisco Lindor home run in the first, but Carlos Carrasco served up a two-run homer to Willy Adames in the first to erase that lead. He was then tagged for three more in the second to put New York in a four-run hole. Javier Báez drove two home with a double in the third, and Kevin Pillar provided a pinch hit single to get the Mets to within one run, but two errors in the bottom half of that frame resulted in three more Milwaukee runs. The Mets were unable to claw their way back from that four-run deficit, and they had to watch as the Brewers and their fans celebrated.

One player who continues to excel is Báez, who made a terrific diving play on Sunday and collected four more hits over the weekend. He leads the club with 31 hits this month while slashing .373/.453/.614 with five homers, a club-best 190 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR in 23 games. Since arriving at the deadline, he is hitting .304/.372/.541 with nine homers, a club-high 149 wRC+, and a 1.7 fWAR in 41 games. He made it known over the weekend that he would like to stay in New York, and Lindor has been lobbying hard to have Steve Cohen pony up to retain him, so the pressure will be on this offseason to make sure that the infielder does not become just a rental who flourishes with a new team in 2022.

Like the Mets, the Marlins enter this series on a five-game losing streak after getting swept by the Rays. The Marlins find themselves tied with the Nationals in the NL East, as they look to avoid the cellar.

Tuesday, September 28: TBD vs. Marcus Stroman, 4:10 p.m. on SNY

TBD

The Marlins have not yet named a starting pitcher for Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubelheader against the Mets.

Stroman (2021): 174.0 IP, 154 K, 42 BB, 16 HR, 3.00 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3.6 bWAR

Stroman had a rough go of it his last time out against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. He kept Boston off the board for the first three innings but ran into trouble in the second half of his start. He gave up a run in the fourth and then surrendered two homers in the fifth inning before getting removed at the conclusion of that frame. In total, he allowed four earned runs on seven hits in five innings, with two walks and three strikeouts. He extended his streak of five-plus inning starts to 15, despite the results. The two homers in the fifth also broke his streak of five straight starts without allowing a homer. Tuesday could be his last start at Citi Field as a member of the Mets, but he has continued to show that he is more than worthy of the contract he will command this offseason, and it will be up to the Mets to decide whether they want to match it.

Tuesday, September 28: TBD vs. Trevor Williams, ~45 minutes after the conclusion of Game 1 on SNY

TBD

The Marlins have not yet named a starting pitcher for Game 2 of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Mets.

Williams (2021): 82.0 IP, 79 K, 29 BB, 10 HR, 4.39 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Williams will make his first start since September 6, when he allowed two earned runs on ten hits, with two walks and three hits over five innings against the Nationals. The Mets have primarily used him as the starter for the nightcap of their doubleheaders throughout much of the second half, and he has risen to the occasion in pretty much every one of those instances. His last outing was his worst as a Met, coming on in relief and allowing six runs (four earned) on eight hits, with one walk and four strikeouts over four innings in a blowout loss to the Red Sox. He did eat up some innings to save the team’s bullpen, so he was able to help his club out in that respect.

Wednesday, September 29: Elieser Hernandez vs. Taijuan Walker, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Hernandez (2021): 46.2 IP, 47 K, 14 BB, 12 HR, 4.24 ERA, 5.59 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Hernandez is looking to end his injury-plagued 2021 campaign on a high note in his final outing of the year. The 26-year-old missed almost two months between April 11 and June 3 with right biceps inflammation, returned for one start, and then went down for over two months with a severe right quadriceps strain. He has finally gotten some consistent playing time over the past month, with mixed results. His last time out, he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Nationals. He faced the Mets back on April 11 and allowed one earned run on five hits, with one walk and four strikeouts over five innings.

Walker (2021): 151.2 IP, 141 K, 52 BB, 26 HR, 4.57 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 0.3 bWAR

Walker went into the All Star Game with a 2.66 ERA, and has seen that number balloon by almost two runs in a horrific second half. His last start was one of his worst of the year, as he was bombarded for six earned runs on six hits over two innings against the Red Sox. He has not earned a win since beating the Yankees on July 3. The most alarming stat has been the 20 home runs he’s served up since the break, which is a clear sign of fatigue. A lot has been made about the number of innings he has thrown this year after a lighter workload over the past three seasons, but it bears repeating that he had only tossed 67.1 innings since the start of the 2018 campaign. It’s hard to predict what the team will be able to expect from him in 2022, but he still factors to be a big part of the club’s rotation going into 2022.

Thursday, September 30: Edward Cabrera vs. Tylor Megill, 7:10 p.m. on WPIX

Cabrera (2021): 23.1 IP, 22 K, 17 BB, 5 HR, 5.79 ERA, 6.77 FIP, 1.67 WHIP, -0.3 bWAR

Cabrera will try to get his first major league win as he closes out his first go-around in the majors. The right-hander has made six starts so far and has not made it beyond the fourth inning after pitching into the seventh in his debut against the Nationals back on August 25. His last time out, he went three innings and allowed three earned runs on four hits. He issue a career-high four walks while striking out six in his outing. The right-hander has faced the Mets twice, first giving up three earned runs on seven hits over four innings at Citi Field on August 31, and then allowing four earned runs on one hit over 2.1 innings on September 7. Miami has lost his last five starts after picking up a win in his debut.

Megill (2021): 84.2 IP, 93 K, 26 BB, 19 HR, 4.78 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Megill will close out his rookie season at the team’s home finale on Thursday. His rookie campaign started off well but has gone downhill as his innings have increased, which is to be expected with younger pitchers who are going well beyond their usual workload. In his last start against the Brewers, home runs once again hurt him, as all four runs scored via the long ball. This has been a recurring problem all season, and the young right-hander has now given up 19 dingers on the season. Overall, he allowed four earned runs on five hits. He issued a career-high four walks while striking out two over four innings. In his last two starts since that incredible ten-strikeout performance against the Yankees, he has allowed ten earned runs on 14 hits over seven innings. He has also surrendered 12 home runs over his last six starts. He faced the Marlins once back on August 2 and picked up his first career loss after giving up five runs over five innings.

Prediction: The Mets and Marlins split four games at Citi Field.