The loss of any decent homegrown player is sad, the loss of an all-time great like Jacob deGrom is an entirely different kind of pain that many are feeling right now.
But in the end, there will be an opening day in about 5 months, we will be excited and there's a decent chance the Mets will be a post-season player again in 2023. While the Mets have done a pretty good job of drafting and developing stars, an all-homegrown club would likely have fallen well-short of the 2022 version that had added five major pieces (Max, Marte, Bassitt, Canha, Escobar) last off-season.
This post looks at what an "All-Homegrown" Mets Roster would have looked like if all trades and free-agent signings were banned. Only guys originally drafted or signed as IFA's by the club could be rostered, so no Wheeler, Syndergaard, d'Arnaud etc. Of course, that's a stupid idea that would make the off-season and Winter Meetings a snooze-fest but I find it an interesting thought exercise and might offer some insight into how good/bad the Mets have been at identifying young talent.
Caveat - In an actual world with no trades for free agent signings this is list would change. In that world, the Mets would not have received compensation draft picks (i.e. Kevin Plawecki) and conversely would not have lost picks due to signing restricted free agents. But this list will have to do.
Caveat 2 - I probably missed some IFA signings and possibly draftees. If I have please point them out in the comments.
The Lineup: Or at least one way to construct it.
Player |
Pos |
'22 fWAR |
Stats |
Acquired |
HS/College |
Brandon Nimmo |
CF |
5.4 |
134wRC+, 16HR, .367obp, 673PAs |
2011/1/13 |
HS-WY |
Andres Gimenez |
SS |
6.1 |
140wRC+, 17HRs, 557PAs |
2015 IFA |
|
Peter Alonso |
1B |
4.0 |
143wRC+, 40HR, 685PAs |
2016/2/64 |
C U of FL |
Jeff McNeill |
RF |
5.9 |
143 wRC+, .326, 9HR, 589PAs |
2013/12/356 |
C-Cal St |
Wilmer Flores |
3B |
1.5 |
103wRC+, 602PAs, 19HR |
2006 IFA |
|
Amed Rosario |
LF |
2.4 |
103wRC+, 11HRs, 670 PAs |
2012 IFA |
|
Luis Guillorme |
2B |
1.3 |
106wRC+, 335 PAs, 2HR |
2013/10/296 |
HS FL |
Tomas Nido |
C |
0.9 |
74wRC+, 313PAs, 3HR |
2012/8/260 |
HS FL |
Kevin Plawecki |
C |
-0.5 |
61wRC+, 1HR, 186PAs |
2012/1s/35 |
C Purdue |
Michael Conforto |
Missing In Action |
OR State |
That's 27 fWAR bWAR in 2022 from the 8 position players, an average of 3.4/position which is pretty good. Notice there's no DH in there ...
The Bench: Outfielders, outfielders, my kingdom for an outfielder! Going to have to bring back Juan Lagares and drag Carlos Gomez out of retirement just to fill out the bench. Unless Vientos, Baty & Alvarez would have thrived with a full-season in Queens the bench is pretty much a debacle.
Player |
Pos |
'22 fWAR |
Stats |
Acquired |
HS/College |
Dominic Smith |
LF |
-0.1 |
67wRC+, 0 HR, 152PAs, |
2013/1/11 |
HS CA |
Nelson Cruz |
DH |
0.2 |
85wRC+, 10HR, 507PAs |
||
Matt Reynolds |
3B |
0.4 |
81wRC+, 3HR, 272 PAs |
2012/2/71 |
C-U of Arkansas |
Jared Kelenic |
CF/RF |
-0.1 |
55wRC+, 7HR, 181 PAs |
HS WI |
|
Juan Lagares |
CF |
-0.5 |
24wRC+, 0HR, 62PAs |
2006 IFA |
|
Patrick Mazeika |
C |
-0.1 |
45wRC+, 1HR, 72PAs |
Stetson FL |
|
Brett Baty |
3B |
-0.1 |
71wRC+, 42PAs, 2HR |
HS TX |
|
Mark Vientos |
DH |
-0.2 |
65wRC+, 41PAs, 1HR |
HS FL |
|
Francisco Alvarez |
C/DH |
0 |
123wRC+, 14PAs, 1HR |
IFA |
Add it and you find that the actual Mets totaled 6,176 PAs and 171 HRs. The Homegrown Mets fell 223 PAs and 18 HRs short of the actual Mets. Overall, a much weaker club without Lindor, Marte, Canha, Eskie and Vogie.
The Rotation: Rut-roh!
Jose Quintana |
LHP |
4.0 |
32 GS/32GS, 165.2ip, 137k/47bb, 2.93 ERA |
IFA |
|
Chris Flexen |
RHP |
1.3 |
33G/22gS 137.2ip, 95k's,51bb, 3.73 |
2012/14/440 |
HS-CA |
David Peterson |
LHP |
0.9 |
28G/19GS, 105.2ip, 126k/48bb, 3.83 ERA |
2017/1/20 |
U of Oregon |
Jacob deGrom |
RHP |
1.4 |
11GS, 64.1ip, 102k/8bb, 3.08 ERA |
2010/9/272 |
C Stetson |
Steven Matz |
LHP |
-0.4 |
15G/10GS 48ip, 54k/10bb, 5.25 ERA |
2009/2/72 |
HS NY |
Tylor Megill |
RHP |
0.0 |
15G/9GS 47.1ip, 51k/13bb, 5.13ERA |
||
Justin Dunn |
LHP |
-0.1 |
7GS, 31ip, 21k's,/17 bbs, 6.10 ERA |
2016/1/19 |
Boston College |
|
|
||||
John Gant |
RHP |
0.3 |
Did not appear 22 |
2011/21/642 |
HS FL |
Matt Harvey |
RHP |
-0.7 |
Did not appear 22 |
2010/1/7 |
C UNC |
Jose Quintana is your ace and you'll like it! He actually had a helluva season logging 32 starts with a sub 3.00 ERA. But no one else in the Mets homegrown rotation made more than 22 starts. And the 7 guys that made starts last season only totaled 115. Last time I checked, we're back to playing 162 game seasons. Even including the substantial number of bullpen innings thrown by those guys they totaled 599.2 innings which is less than 4 innings per game.
Truth be told though, growing pitching is extremely hard, most clubs need to bring in reinforcements from outside.
The Bullpen:
Paul Sewald |
RHP |
0.5 |
65G, 64ip, 72k/17bb, 2.67ERA, 20 saves |
2012/10/320 |
C-U of SD |
Rafael Montero |
RHP |
1.5 |
71G, 68.1ip, 73k, 23bb, 2.37 ERA, 14 saves |
IFA |
|
Collin McHugh |
RHP |
1.4 |
58G, 69.1ip, 75k/14bb, 2.60 ERA |
2008/18/554 |
C Berry College |
Nabil Crismatt |
RHP |
0.8 |
50G 67.1ip, 65k/22bb, 2.94ERA |
2011 IFA |
|
Seth Lugo |
RHP |
0.2 |
62G, 65IP, 69K/18bb, 3.60ERA |
2011/34/1032 |
C-Centenary LA |
Michael Fulmer |
RHP |
0.7 |
67G, 63.2ip, 61k/28bb, 3.39ERA |
2011/1s/44 |
HS - OK |
Luis Cessa |
RHP |
0.0 |
47G/10GS, 80.2ip, 59k/28bb, 4.57ERA |
IFA |
|
Adam Kolarek |
LHP |
-0.1 |
15g, 17.2ip, 9k/8bb, 4.58ERA |
2010/11/332 |
C UMD |
Joe Smith |
RHP |
-0.9 |
34G, 27.1ip, 17k/9ip, 4.61ERA |
2006/3/94 |
C Wright St |
Robert Gsellman |
RHP |
0 |
8g/1G, 15.1ip, 9k/3bb, 4.70 ERA |
2011/13/402 |
HS - CA |
Simeon Woods-Richardson |
RHP |
0 |
1GS, 5ip, 3k/2bb, 3.60ERA |
2018/2 |
HS - TX |
Jeurys Familia |
RHP |
-0.3 |
48G, 44.1ip, 33k/15bb, 6.09ERA |
2007 IFA |
|
Domingo Tapia |
RHO |
-0.1 |
11G, 17ip, 12k/14bb, 8.47ERA |
||
Anthony Kay |
LHP |
0
|
1G, 2ip, 3k/1bb 4.50ERA |
2016/1/31 |
U Conn |
Hansel Robles |
RHP |
-0.7 |
26G, 24.2ip, 21k/14bb, 5.84ERA |
2008 IFA |
|
Thomas Szapucki |
LHP |
-0.3 |
11G, 15ip, 4k/3bb, 7.20ERA |
2015/14/149 |
|
Matt Koch |
RHP |
-0.2 |
4G, 4.1ip, 3k/1bb, 8.31ERA |
2012/3 |
U Louisville |
Yusmeiro Petit |
RHP |
|
Did Not Play 22 |
IFA |
|
Corey Oswalt |
RHP |
Did Not Play 22 |
2012/7/230 |
HS-CA |
|
Brad Wieck |
LHP |
|
Did Not Play 22 |
2015/7/205 |
C-OK City U |
No one can replace Edwin Diaz but this pen has some very good depth. Sewald and Montero as a 2-headed closer would have converted 34 saves which isn't bad. But they also blew seven. Diaz had 32 saves vs. only 3 blown saves.
Overall, the 2022 Mets were stronger than the "Homegrown Mets" in most every phase of the roster. That said, the Mets have identified and/or developed some pretty critical pieces like Jake, Pete, McNeil, Nimmo & Gimenez. Most any club would consider that a very strong core to build around. Though the lack of quality starting pitching would clearly need to be addressed with outside reinforcements - sound familiar?
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