While the Mets have been one of the stars of "Player Acquisition Theater" in this unique stop and go off-season, they have also lost some valuable assets from a club that stumbled to a meager 77 wins. In other words, they need a ton of improvement to add the 10-13ish wins that will likely be needed to make the newly expanded post-season.
I sometimes find it useful to look at acquisitions in the context of who they replace. Is the new guy likely to be a net gain or loss compared to the talent they are replacing? That’s what this exercise is about.
A couple of notes:
- You won't see someone like Noah Syndergaard in this analysis. I am looking specifically at how 2022 might compare to 2021. Since Noah was a footnote to the 2021 squad I am not counting him as a "loss."
- I only measure the contribution while made with the Mets i.e. Javier Baez. His time with the Cubs is not seen as a "loss" since he was not with the Mets when he posted those numbers.
- This is not meant to be comprehensive. I just look at a few fun, big pieces.
- I realize bWAR is better than fWAR for pitchers but I was at Fangraphs when I started and forgot to switch over to BRef when I did pitchers. I ran out of gas before I could re-do pitchers.
- This is a rough sketch. Guys have good and bad years. It's obviously simplistic to weigh two players 2021 performance against each other. The guy we lost might flourish in '22 and the guy we got might get injured .... It's just for fun.
- I used Cano's 2020 numbers which would obviously be better than we should ever expect. So that should tell you how unreliable this exercise is as far as having any credibility as an actual predictive tool.
So here we go.
Add it up
If each guy perfectly duplicated their 2021 performance - which of course would never happen - the Mets would see a gain of 10.1 fWAR compared to 2021 but would still need to replace about 2 wins in the bullpen to avoid backsliding on the 98 innings lost from Loup, Hand & Gsellman. So a 77 win club could jump to 87 under that scenario. Hmmm. Sounds like there's still alot of work to do. Though a healthy Jake and Cookie could transform that math. C'mon Billy-the-Kid give Buck-a-shot to hit that 90+ target. (Pun thread idea for you Stickguy)