Mets return home for three against the Mariners

The Mets (22-11) will look to keep on rolling as they return to Citi Field for three games against the Mariners (14-18). The Mets and Mariners have only played five series against each other, with Seattle winning four out of those five series and 10 out of 15 games overall. These two clubs last squared off in 2017, with the Mariners taking two out of three at T-Mobile Park. Interestingly, this will be Seattle’s first ever visit to Citi Field, as they last came to New York to face the Mets in Shea Stadium’s final season.

The Mets played their tenth series without losing one as they won two of three games against the Nationals in Washington DC. The Mets trailed 2-0 in the series opener on Tuesday but came from behind with three in the sixth and one in the ninth for a 4-2 victory. Jeff McNeil smoked a two-run double that could have easily been ruled an error as it shot off Josh Bell’s glove. New York added a third run on a James McCann sac fly, and another on a J.D. Davis sac fly in the ninth to secure the win behind a very effective Carlos Carrasco, who pitched 6.2 innings of two-run ball.

The Mets jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning on Wednesday, thanks to a Starling Marte run-scoring single and a two-run dinger from Pete Alonso, but Tylor Megill was shelled as New York fell 8-3. Megill let up five in the first and three more in the second before being lifted after 1.1 innings. While the combo of Trevor Williams and Stephen Nogosek finished off the game without any further damage, the offense didn’t do anything else from there.

The Mets earned the series victory with a 4-1 win on Thursday. Taijuan Walker, who was visibly uncomfortable most of the afternoon, was able to provide seven shutout innings as he scattered three hits and one walk. Mark Canha drove home two after Joan Adon walked three in the first, and he contribued a solo home run later in the contest.

The Mariners limp into Citi Field after losing two out of three to the Phillies. Prior to that series loss, they dropped three out of four to the Rays. In all, they have lost eight of their 11 May games as they have slipped to third in the AL West, carrying a slim half-game lead over the fourth place Athletics.

The main topic of conversation this weekend will be the return of Jarred Kelenic, who never actually played a game for the Mets but had fans furious when he was traded for the recently-released Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz. David Capobianco recently provided an in-depth update on the trade, which has seen the former top prospect flounder since arriving to the major leagues. While Díaz floundered in his first go-around in Queens, he has since flourished and re-established himself as one of the top closers in the game. Meanwhile, since his debut, Kelenic has hit .173/.256/.338 in 123 games, with a 70 wRC+ and a -0.3 fWAR. This season, the outfielder is slashing .140/.219/.291 with a 57 wRC+ and a 0.2 fWAR in 30 games.

Offensively, their best player has been J.P. Crawford. The shortstop is slashing .333/.419/.533 with four home runs, a 190 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR in 30 games. Ty France has also been having a great year for Seattle, as the first baseman is currently hitting .325/.399/.476 with five homers, a 169 wRC+, and a 1.3 fWAR in 32 games. Prior to the season’s start, Seattle picked up two offensive weapons from the Reds, with mixed results so far. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez has been solid for Seattle since arriving, hitting .202/.305/.430 with a team-high six homers, a 126 wRC+, and a 0.9 fWAR in 31 games. Meanwhile, outfielder Jesse Winker is slashing .204/.311/.274 with an 86 wRC+ and a -0.3 fWAR in 32 games.

Friday, May 13: Marco Gonzales vs. Max Scherzer, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Gonzales (2022): 25.1 IP, 17 K, 10 BB, 8 HR, 3.91 ERA, 7.18 FIP, 1.62 WHIP, -0.6 bWAR

Gonzales’ ERA and FIP tell completely different stories. While his 3.91 ERA is much more palatable, his FIP matches the main Queens area code at 7.18, so he should fit right in when pitching at Citi Field. The left-hander has the highest HR/9 (2.84) among American League starting pitchers who have logged at least 25.0 innings. His 3.55 BB/9, meanwhile, is 11th worst among AL starters with the same number of innings. In his last start, he allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits, with four walks and one strikeout over 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay.

Scherzer (2022): 37.0 IP, 49 K, 9 BB, 5 HR, 2.92 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.1 bWAR

In his last outing, Scherzer saw his stretch of 24 consecutive regular season starts without a loss come to an end, as he suffered his first defeat since June 2021 against the Phillies. He still logged a Quality Start, allowing three earned runs over six innings, though he gave up a season-high ten hits. He struck out seven didn’t walk anybody, and allowed a homer to Bryce Harper for the second consecutive outing—he has now given up four homers in his last two starts. Still, a lot of the hits he gave up were soft contact, and he looked like his usual self on the mound, so no reason for concern.

Saturday, May 14: George Kirby vs. Chris Bassitt, 7:10 p.m. on WPIX

Kirby (2022): 6.0 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA, 0.79 FIP, 0.67 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Kirby was sensational in his major league debut. The right-hander, who is the top pitching prospect in Seattle’s system and third overall according to MLB, hurled six shutout innings against the Rays, scattering four hits while striking out seven in his first taste of big league action. The 24-year-old threw 81 pitches, with 55 of them (68%) going for strikes. The Rye, New York native was originally selected by the Mets in the 32nd round of the 2016 MLB Draft, but he chose to go to Elon University instead. Seattle eventually drafted him 20th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft, and he posted a 2.34 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 115.1 innings during his minor league career.

Bassitt (2022): 36.2 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 4 HR, 2.45 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 1.2 bWAR

You really can’t say enough good things about what Bassitt has given the Mets so far this year. The veteran right-hander currently leads starters on their squad with a 2.45 ERA through six starts. In his last start, he fell one out short of completing six innings yet again, but he still pitched well enough to earn his fourth victory as a Met. Bassitt allowed one earned run—a solo homer off the bat of Jean Segura—on five hits, with one walk and four strikeouts against Philadelphia. He threw a season-high 101 pitches, with 65 crossing the plate for strikes. If he keeps pitching like he has over the season’s first month, the extension discourse will start to get even more serious, as he has made it clear he would be open to one.

Sunday, May 15: Robbie Ray vs. Carlos Carrasco, 1:40 p.m. on SNY

Ray (2022): 42.2 IP, 41 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 4.22 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Ray is coming off a sensational season in which he won the AL Cy Young Award and finished 15th in AL MVP voting. The left-hander led the AL in innings pitched (193.1), ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.05), and strikeouts (248), which helped him secure the top pitching prize. He hasn’t gotten off to quite as good a start in 2022, with a 4.22 ERA through seven starts. In his last outing, the 30-year-old tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball and struck out a season-high ten batters as he picked up his third win of the season. He allowed just two hits and walked two Phillies in the victory. Prior to that, he allowed four earned runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings in a loss to the Rays.

Carrasco (2022): 36.2 IP, 33 K, 8 BB, 3 HR, 3.19 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 0.8 bWAR

Carrasco continues to impress in the early stages of the season, as the fears of another injury-plagued campaign and the concern over his first inning woes have dissipated with each passing start. His last time out, he tossed 6.2 innings against Washington, allowing two earned runs on seven hits with five strikeouts. He didn’t walk a better for the third time in six starts this year, and all of that was good enough to earn him his third victory of 2022. Along with Scherzer and Bassitt, he has given the Mets a formidable 1-2-3 punch at the top of their rotation, which is a big reason why they have opened up a 6.5 game lead in the NL East.

Prediction: The Mets take two of three from the Mariners!