Mets return home for (yet another) series against the Phillies

The Mets (29-17) return home from a .500 road trip to take on the Phillies (20-24). This will be the fourth time the two sides of squared off this year. The Mets have won six out of nine games so far against Philadelphia.

For only the second time in 2022, the Mets lost a series, as they dropped two out of three at Oracle Park against the Giants. They opened the series with a resounded 13-3 victory, as they collected 18 hits in the win. Following a prolonged slump, J.D. Davis broke out with four hits, while Pete Alonso contributed three hits, including a three-run homer. Brandon Nimmo, Eduardo Escobar, Jeff McNeil, and Mark Canha each joined the fun with two-hit games, with McNeil and Canha also homering.

Tuesday’s loss is one that is not easily summed up in just one paragraph, as New York ended up dropping a wild one 13-12. Chris Bassitt was ineffective as he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings, and for a while it looked like a standard, punchless loss 8-2 Mets loss. Then, Francisco Lindor hit what felt like an innocuous two-run home run in the seventh to draw New York to within four runs. In the eighth, the Mets sent 12 to the plate and pushed seven runs across the plate to grab an 11-8 lead. Drew Smith entered in the eighth and put two on before surrendering a three-run homer to Joc Pederson—his third dinger of the evening. The Mets grabbed the lead back in the ninth, but the Giants scored two in the ninth against Edwin Díaz to hand New York the loss. For the second straight day, the Mets had 18 hits, but the Giants had 19 and scored one more run.

Wednesday’s game was a mess, as Thomas Szapucki allowed nine earned runs in 1.1 innings of work in his first major league start. Francisco Lindor homered for the second straight game, but it was mostly an afterthought in a blowout loss. It was the first time the Mets dropped two games in a row since April 10-11.

Rumors of Lindor’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, as the shortstop had a terrific road trip. In six games against the Rockies and the Giants, he slashed .308/.296/.692 with a 172 wRC+ while leading the way with two homers and 11 runs batted in. Escobar, who also struggled in the month of May, hit .400/.455/.550 with a 191 wRC+ in five games on the road. Jeff McNeil, who has been a top performer all season, led the club on the road trip with a 211 wRC+ while hitting .364/.417/.682. He did exit Wednesday’s game after crashing into a wall while making a catch in left field, which resulted in a left knee contusion. He is listed at day-to-day, an it remains to be seen if he will be able to action on Friday night.

The Phillies are coming off series split against the Braves as both clubs won two games at Truist Park. Since New York last squared off with Philadelphia in a Mother’s Day doubleheader, the Phillies have won nine and lost eight. Prior to their series against Atlanta, they endured a 2-4 homestand as they dropped two of three to both the Padres and the Dodgers.

Since May 9, Bryce Harper has, unsurprisingly, been Philadelphia’s best hitter (when he’s been healthy). He’s missed some time due to a small tear in his ulnar collateral ligament, which has confined him to the DH role, but when he’s in the lineup, he continues to bash the baseball. In 11 games since the Mets last faced the Phillies, he’s slashing .500/.529/.957 with four homers, three stolen bases, 12 runs batted in, 10 runs scored, a team-high 300 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR.

Jean Segura, who has hit well against the Mets in recent years, is hitting .316/.361/.509 with three homers, a team-high five stolen bases, a 140 wRC+, and a 0.6 fWAR in 15 games. Philadelphia’s other Mets killer, Kyle Schwarber, has only posted a .175/.294/.368 slash line in that span, with three homers and an 85 wRC+ in 16 games. J.T. Realmuto has also been ice cold as of late, as the All Star catcher is hitting .200/.281/.300 in his past 14 games. He has not hit a single home run during that span while posting a 66 wRC+, which is good for a 0.1 fWAR.

Friday, May 27: Zach Eflin vs. Carlos Carrasco, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Eflin (2022): 37.0 IP, 35 K, 8 BB, 3 HR, 3.65 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 0.6 bWAR

Eflin is coming off two terrific outings against two powerhouse offenses, though he has nothing to show for it record-wise. On May 17, he limited the Padres to one earned run on five hits over six innings, but he absorbed the loss in that start. Then on May 24, he struck out a season-high 12 batters against the Dodgers while allowing two earned runs on four hits over seven innings. It was his first two appearances since coming off the COVID-19 IL. Prior to that, he endured his worst start of the year against the Mets, as he was charged with six runs (five earned) on eight hits over 4.1 innings.

Carrasco (2022): 46.1 IP, 39 K, 9 BB, 3 HR, 3.50 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 0.9 bWAR

Carrasco picked up his third win in four May starts his last time out in Colorado. He went 5.1 innings in that outing and allowed one earned run on seven hits, striking out four along the way, Carrasco owns a 2.59 ERA, a 2.83 FIP, and a 1.27 WHIP in 27.1 innings. Despite the Mets playing the Phillies three times already this season, this will be Carrasco’s first time taking the mound against Philadelphia.

Saturday, May 28: Zack Wheeler vs. Taijuan Walker, 7:15 p.m. on FOX

Wheeler (2022): 45.1 IP, 51 K, 10 BB, 2 HR, 3.38 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1.2 bWAR

Through three starts this year, Wheeler owned an unsightly 8.53 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 12.2 innings. Since then, he has been looked every bit like the pitcher he was when he finished second in NL Cy Young voting last season, posting a 1.38 ERA, a 1.62 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP, with 40 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. He has picked up wins in three of those five starts, including in his last two appearances. His last time out, he punched out ten Braves batters while allowing two earned runs on eight hits over 6.2 innings. He has yet to face the Mets this year but has enjoyed facing his old club, pitching to a 2.58 ERA in nine starts against them.

Walker (2022): 30.0 IP, 18 K, 9 BB, 2 HR, 2.70 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 0.9 bWAR

Walker is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out Colorado at Coors Field over seven strong innings. He scattered five hits, struck out a season-high six, and walked two as he earned his second win in three starts. He threw a season-high 97 pitches, with 67 of them (69%) crossing the plate for strikes. The right-hander made his first three appearances against Philadelphia, allowing seven runs (six earned) on 11 hits over 11.0 innings.

Sunday, May 29: Kyle Gibson vs. TBD, 7:08 p.m. on ESPN

Gibson (2022): 48.0 IP, 45 K, 14 BB, 4 HR, 3.94 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 1.0 bWAR

Gibson is coming off two solid starts in a row, though neither of them resulted in a win for his club. Most recently, he was charged with two earned runs on seven hits over 5.0 innings against the Braves—the Phillies wound up losing 6-5. Before that, he allowed two earned runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings against the Padres—Philadelphia was shut out 2-0. He’s continued to be a solid contributor and a key part of the Phillies’ rotation since his arrival in a trade from the Rangers. He has faced the Mets twice this year, allowing one unearned run on two hits over 4.1 innings on April 30 at Citi Field, and then holding New York to two earned runs on six hits over 6.0 innings. The Phillies emerged victorious in both of Gibson’s starts against the Mets.

TBD

The Mets have not yet confirmed their starting pitcher for Sunday night’s game. It should be Chris Bassitt, assuming he has adequately recovered from a cold/sinus infection that was bothering him. In his start against the Giants, he gave up eight earned runs in 4.1 innings, and his illness could have been affecting his performance. If Bassitt can’t go, expect David Peterson to get the nod.

Prediction: The Mets continuing handling the Phillies by taking two of three this weekend, which includes a rain out on Friday night.