Mets return home from long trip to take on Brewers

The Mets (40-22) are back at Citi Field following a grueling 10-game swing out West to kick off a 7-game homestand, which begins with three against the Brewers (34-28). The Mets dropped four of six against the Brewers last year, including Milwaukee’s NL Central-clinching win.

The Mets finished up their road trip against the Dodgers, Padres, and Angels with a 5-5 record after taking two out of three against the Angels. On Friday, the Mets jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the second and never looked back as they cruised to a 7-3 win. Tomás Nido got the Mets on the board with a run-scoring single in the second, and Mark Canha added two more later in the inning with a double. The Angels got two back on Brandon Marsh’s second inning homer against Tylor Megill, who was making his first start since May 11 following right biceps tendinitis, but that was as close as they would get. Brandon Nimmo hit a solo homer in the fourth and knocked in two more with a sixth inning double, while Canha drove in another with a single in the sixth. Marsh hit a solo homer in the bottom half of the frame, but the bullpen held it from there.

The Mets fell by an 11-6 score on Saturday, though it was not as close as the final score would lead you to believe. New York was burned by Los Angeles’ best hitters, starting with Shohei Ohtani and Athony Rendon run-scoring doubles in the second. Mike Trout, who returned from a three-day absence following a groin injury, homered in the third and in the sixth, while Ohtani added a home run in the fifth. Pete Alonso homered in the eighth, and Khalil Lee hit his first career home run in the ninth, but that was about all the positives for the Mets.

The Mets took the rubber game 4-1 behind a strong start from Taijuan Walker, who allowed a run in the first but buckled down and struck out ten over six strong innings. In his return to the lineup, Starling Marte doubled home the game-tying run, while J.D. Davis’ second dinger of the season put the Mets ahead for good. Alonso contributed a run-scoring single in the seventh and homered in the ninth as he now leads the NL with 18 home runs and 57 runs batted in. Edwin Díaz recorded five outs after he entered with one out in the eighth to face Trout, picking up his first five-out save of the season.

The Mets survived their tough West Coast swing and ended up going 5-5. They did see their division lead cut in half, although a lot of that has more to do with Braves going on an unsustainable 12-game winning streak, most of which came against teams with sub-.500 records. Along the way, the Mets also became the first NL team to eclipse the 40-win plateau, and second in baseball after the Yankees. The Mets reached the mark in 62 games, which is the second-quickest in franchise history next to the 1986 squad. As the Mets return home, they have to feel good about their position, and signs point to both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom possibly returning in the foreseeable future, which can only help.

The Brewers finally ended their eight-game losing streak by beating the Nationals on Sunday. Prior to that, they lost two to the Nationals, three to the Phillies, and three to the Padres.

Milwaukee’s struggles are due in large part to their offense, which is in the bottom third in the league. Their 97 wRC+ and .704 OPS currently ranks 10th among the 15 NL, while their 267 runs scored places them ninth in the NL. On the other hand, their starting pitching has been keeping them afloat, as their 3.66 rotation ERA comes in fourth in the NL. They are led by Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, who the Mets will see on Wednesday. Meanwhile, their bullpen’s 3.82 ERA ranks fifth in the NL, thanks to closer Josh Hader’s terrific season.

Tuesday, June 14: Adrian Houser vs. Chris Bassitt, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Houser (2022): 57.1 IP, 46 K, 24 BB, 6 HR, 3.92 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 0.0 bWAR

Houser has had an up-and-down year for Milwaukee, as he seems to follow a good start or two with a clunker. His last time out was the latter, as he was charged with five earned runs on seven hits over 6.0 innings against Philadelphia. He served up a season-high three home runs in defeat and struck out five while walking one.

Bassitt (2022): 68.1 IP, 74 K, 23 BB, 11 HR, 4.35 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 0.6 bWAR

Bassitt was candid about his recent performance after his subpar outing against San Diego, saying he was “beyond embarrassed”. Bassitt has seen his ERA balloon from 2.34 on May 14 following his strong outing against the Mariners to 4.35 following his most recent performance. In that five-start span, he has an unsightly 7.62 ERA, 5.76 FIP, and 1.62 WHIP over 26.0 innings. He has give up at least four runs in four of those five appearances. The hope is that this is just a minor blip on the radar and he can get back to his early-season success soon, but the added pressure of being the de facto rotation ace since Scherzer’s injury may also be adding some pressure for the right-hander, which should hopefully be alleviated shortly.

Wednesday, June 15: Corbin Burnes vs. David Peterson, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Burnes (2022): 72.2 IP, 92 K, 17 BB, 9 HR, 2.48 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 2.0 bWAR

Burnes had a tremendous May, pitching to a 2.08 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a 0.89 WHIP in 39.0 innings across six starts, and it looked like he was well on his way to establishing himself as a Cy Young front-runner after taking home the award last season. However, he’s slipped up so far in his two June starts. Against the Padres on June 3, he lasted just 3.2 innings and was tagged for a season-high five earned runs and eight hits. Then against the Phillies his last time out, he allowed three runs (one earned) on three hits over 4.1 innings. After going at least 5.0 innings in each of his first 10 starts, he has failed to reach that mark in his last two outings.

Peterson (2022): 36.0 IP, 32 K, 18 BB, 3 HR, 3.00 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 0.6 bWAR

Peterson is back in the rotation after his last start was skipped in favor of Megill. In his first relief outing since the opening week of the season, he went 2.2 innings and actually ended up picking up the win. He allowed one earned run on three hits, striking out three and walking one in the victory. Peterson will get his chances, but he and Megill are fighting for that fifth spot right now, with Scherzer’s return coming sooner rather than later. His performance these next few starts will go a long way towards determining if more bullpen outings are in his future, or if he can hold on to a spot in the rotation (until deGrom returns, at least).

Thursday, June 16: Aaron Ashby vs. Tylor Megill, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Ashby (2022): 50.2 IP, 62 K, 23 BB, 5 HR, 3.91 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Ashby has split time this year between the bullpen and the rotation, though with Brandon Woodruff’s absence, he has found way more time in the latter as of late. His last four appearances have been starts, mostly to mixed results. His last time out against the Nationals, he allowed a season-high 13 hits while being tagged for six earned runs over 4.2 innings. He only struck out two while walking one in the outing.

Megill (2022): 38.0 IP, 41 K, 10 BB, 5 HR, 4.50 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

In his first start back from the IL, Megill lasted 3.1 innings and tossed 64 pitches, 39 of which were strikes. The right-hander allowed two earned runs on five hits while striking out four and walking one. It was a big step for Megill, who missed about a month with biceps tendinitis. As Scherzer and deGrom near potential returns, his time in the rotation could be limited, but there’s still plenty of chances for him to show he deserves a spot in the big league club over these next few weeks.

Prediction: The Mets take two of three from the Brewers.