Mets welcome Marlins to Citi Field for four-game set

The Mets (42-23) finish off their seven-game homestand with a four-game series against the Marlins (28-33). Surprisingly, this is the first time the two NL East foes will square off in 2022. Last season, the Mets won 10 of their 19 contests against Miami. The Mets have won the season series against Miami in each of the past four seasons, which may come as a surprise as it seems like the Marlins always give the Mets fits.

The Mets won another series after taking two of three against the Brewers. On Tuesday night, Chris Bassitt dominated over eight shutout innings to guide New York to a 4-0 victory. The Mets jumped all over the Brewers in the first inning, plating three runs to grab an early lead. Pete Alonso contributed a run-scoring single in the first and another run-scoring hit in the fifth to increase his league lead in RBI to 59. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil drove in a run in the first with a double and Eduardo Escobar added a sacrifice fly later in that inning. Bassitt didn’t need much, as he was in command all evening.

Wednesday was a different story, as the Mets were blitzed 10-2. There wasn’t much to more that needs to be said about this one, except that Corbin Burnes pitched well for Milwaukee and David Peterson did not pitch well for New York. Things came crashing down in the fifth, when the Brewers put up a seven-spot against Peterson, Jake Reed, and Trevor Williams. McNeil did hit a home run and drove in both of the team’s runs in defeat.

The Mets came from behind to win 5-4 on Thursday and complete the series victory. McNeil drove home another run in the first inning to put New York ahead, but Milwaukee put up a four-spot in the fourth. In that same inning, Tylor Megill exited with what is being called shoulder discomfort, but the bullpen picked up the slack from there and kept the Mets in the ballgame. After cutting the lead to two in the bottom half of the fourth, Mark Canha’s homer later in the game tied things up at four. That’s where things stayed until the eighth, when a Rowdy Tellez error opened the door and the Mets burst through to take the lead on a Nick Plummer fielder’s choice ground out. Edwin Díaz emphatically shut the door in the ninth to preserve the win.

The Marlins enter this contest as losers of three of their last four games, including dropping two of three to the Phillies this week. Prior to that stretch, they won five games in a row. They currently find themselves 12 games back of the Mets in the NL East, but only 6.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.

Miami has been a middle-of-the-road team offensively—their 104 wRC+ ranks seventh in the NL—but their starting pitching has been key to keeping them afloat in this early juncture of the season. Their 3.50 staff ERA is third-best in the NL, behind only the Dodgers and the Padres. Their bullpen has not been as good, posting a 4.41 ERA to date so far, which is 10th in the NL.

Jazz Chisholm is the player to watch on Miami. The charismatic 24-year-old is hitting .246/.301/.535 with a team-leading 13 home runs, 33 runs scored, and 41 runs batted in to go along with his 131 wRC+, which is second on the team. His 2.1 fWAR, meanwhile, tops all Marlins’ hitters. Miami also made two big additions on the offensive side this offseason, one of which has worked out and one of which has most certainly not. Jorge Soler is slashing .217/.306/.438 with 12 homers, a 112 wRC+, and a 0.6 fWAR in 57 games. Avisail Garcia, meanwhile, is hitting .224/.263/.313 with four homers, a 66 wRC+, and a -0.1 fWAR in 51 games.

Friday, June 17: TBD vs. Carlos Carrasco, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

TBD

The Marlins have not yet announced a starting pitcher for tonight’s contest.

Carrasco (2022): 68.2 IP, 68 K, 14 BB, 5 HR, 3.93 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 1.2 bWAR

After a couple of nice outings in a row, Carrasco crumbled in his appearance against the Angels his last time out. Cookie was tagged for five earned runs and allowed a season-high nine hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out seven and walked one, and he served up two homers in a start for the first time this year. To be fair, the home runs were hit by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, so it’s hard to really fault Carrasco for giving up long balls to two of the game’s most fearsome hitters. It will be interesting to see how Carrasco rebounds in this start.

Saturday, June 18: Braxton Garrett vs. Taijuan Walker, 4:10 p.m. on WPIX

Garrett (2022): 9.0 IP, 10 K, 2 BB, 1 HR, 4.00 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, 0.1 bWAR

Garrett entered the year as Miami’s No. 21 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, but missed out on making the club out of spring training following his stints with the team in 2020 and 2021. The left-hander finally got the call on June 5, though his first start didn’t go his way. In his season debut, he allowed four earned runs on five hits over 3.1 innings as he took the loss against the Giants. He was significantly better in his next outing, as he went 5.2 innings and picked up the win after allowing one unearned run on six hits in the outing.

Walker (2022): 52.2 IP, 35 K, 16 BB, 3 HR, 3.08 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 1.5 bWAR

Walker was simply splendid in his last start against the Angels. The right-hander had no trouble with the struggling Halos, allowing one earned run on six hits over 6.0 innings. He punched out a season-high ten batters in the victory and threw 70 of his 97 pitches (71%) for strikes. Walker continues to put together a really nice season, although the worry will be how he performs as the long season drags on. As we saw last season, he began to struggle in the second half after a terrific first half.

Sunday, June 19: Sandy Alcántara vs. Chris Bassitt, 1:40 p.m. on WPIX

Alcántara (2022): 91.1 IP, 82 K, 27 BB, 4 HR, 1.68 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 4.0 bWAR

After many solid seasons for the Marlins, Alcántara has put it all together in 2022 and has stormed into the Cy Young conversation. His 1.68 ERA is the third-best among NL starting pitchers and would be the best mark by a Marlins hurler in a season if he can keep it around that mark. He has gone at least 7.0 innings in each of his last seven starts and has gone at least 8.0 innings in four of those outings. During that span, he owns a ridiculous 0.81 ERA, 2.30 FIP, and 0.74 WHIP over 55.2 innings. His ERA actually rose in his last start, as he surrendered two earned runs on six hits with five strikeouts and three walks over 7.2 innings.

Bassitt (2022): 76.1 IP, 81 K, 24 BB, 11 HR, 4.01 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 1.1 bWAR

Bassitt had his best outing in a Mets uniform by a country mile on Tuesday night. The right-hander had a season-high 18 whiffs in a dominant performance that saw him go 8.0 shutout innings. He threw 71% of his 109 pitches for strikes and issues just one walk against seven strikeouts while scattering three hits. He got into a couple of jams but used some well-timed double plays to get out of trouble unscathed. After a rough stretch in which he made his disappointing in his performance well known, it was good to see him perform like that again, and hopefully it’s something he can build upon as he tries to get back on track.

Monday, June 20: Trevor Rogers vs. David Peterson, 1:10 p.m. on SNY

Rogers (2022): 53.2 IP, 46 K, 28 BB, 9 HR, 5.87 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, -0.4 bWAR

After a brief cup of coffee during the shortened 2020 season, Rogers had a terrific rookie campaign in 2021 and looked well on his way to establishing himself as one of the brightest young starters in baseball. The left-hander finished second in NL Cy Young voting and made the All Star Game while pitching to a 2.64 ERA in 25 starts. In 12 outings this year, it’s been a completely different story, as he owns a 5.87 ERA. In his last start against the Phillies, he allowed four earned runs on five hits over 3.2 innings, but the most concerning element for Miami is the season-high six walks he issued.

Peterson (2022): 40.0 IP, 35 K, 20 BB, 3 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Peterson had his roughest start of the season to date, allowing four earned runs on a season-high six hits over 4.0 innings. He struggled with his command, tossing just 41 of his 73 pitches (56%) for strikes on the evening against Milwaukee. He mostly struggled in the first and then again in the fourth, which resulted in an early exit in a lopsided loss. He struck out three and walked two and, in the end, was saddled with his first loss of the year.

Prediction: The Mets and Marlins split their four-game set.