Mets back home for quick two-game set with Marlins

The Mets (97-57) are back at Citi Field for a quick two-game stopover as they face the Marlins (63-90). The Mets have won 12 of the 17 games they’ve played against Miami, and five of eight at Citi Field.

The Mets return from Oakland, where they won two out of three to complete a 4-2 road trip against the Athletics and Brewers. Things began with a resounding 9-2 victory. Chris Bassitt was terrific in his return to Oakland, hurling eight innings of two-run ball. The Mets scored three in the second on a Mark Vientos sacrifice fly and a Brandon Nimmo two-run single. They broke the game open in the fifth on an Eduardo Escobar—who else?—Grand Slam and a Vientos run-scoring double. Jeff McNeil contributed a run-scoring double, for good measure, in the seventh.

Things went sideways fast on Saturday, as the Mets fell 10-4. If you can believe it, New York built a three-run lead in the first, with two runs coming on a Pete Alonso homer. Jacob deGrom, however, had a rare clunker, allowing four runs in the bottom of the first en route to giving up a season-high five earned over four innings. After walking just four in his first nine starts, he walked four in this contest. The Mets got one back on Vientos’ first career homer to tie things up, but it was short-lived, as a parade of Mets relievers gave up five runs to secure the loss. Only Tylor Megill, who threw two total pitches, was left unscathed.

On Sunday, the Mets got back on a winning track as they cruised to a 13-4 victory. Max Scherzer got the start and, while he wasn’t perfect, he was still great as he earned career win No. 201. On offense, Tyler Naquin drove in one in the second on a single, Escobar drove in two in the third on a single, and Lindor doubled home two in the fourth. That set the stage for Alonso to make more Mets history, as he hit his 39th home run of the year later in the fourth. The two-run home run gave Alonso 125 runs batted in for the season, which broke Mike Piazza (1999) and David Wright’s (2008) joint record for RBI in a season. He added three more runs batted in on a bases-clearing double later in the game, for good measure. In total, the Mets banged out 19 hits, with every starter contributing at least one base hit except for Darin Ruf.

The Mets have broken out of their funk since sweeping the Pirates in a doubleheader on September 7, and their two big guys have been the biggest reason why. Since September 7, Lindor is hitting .342/.378/.592 with four home runs, and a 172 wRC+, while leading the charge with a 1.2 fWAR in those 18 games. He currently has an active 11-game hitting streak heading into play tonight. Alonso, who was just named NL Co-Player of the Week (along with Albert Pujols) leads the team with a 194 wRC+, a 1.066 OPS, and seven home runs in that span while hitting .314/.395/.671 and a 1.0 fWAR over his last 18 games. Of course, we can’t forget about Eduardo Escobar, who continues to rake while slashing .333/.377/.611 with five home runs, a 178 wRC+, and a 1.0 fWAR in 18 games.

The Marlins come into this series after taking two of three from the Nationals. This will be the final time the Mets see Don Mattingly manage Miami, as it was announced yesterday that the long-time Marlins skipper will not be back to manage the club in 2023, as the two sides have mutually agreed to part ways.

Despite not playing since June 28, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will end up leading the club with SLG (.535), OPS (.860), wRC+ (139), fWAR (2.6), while his 14 home runs rank second behind only Jesus Aguilar’s 15 dingers. Miguel Rojas leads the club in games played (135) while hitting .236/.282/.326 with six home runs, a 73 wRC+, and a 1.2 fWAR. Behind Chisholm Jr., Jon Berti’s 2.2 fWAR is the most on the club. Berti is currently hitting .243/.327/.342 with four home runs, a team-leading 43 runs scored, and a 95 wRC+ in 93 games. All Star Garrett Cooper is second on the team (again, behind Chisholm Jr.) with a 114 wRC+ while slashing .260/.335/.415 with nine home runs and a 1.3 fWAR in 118 games.

Tuesday, September 27: Pablo López vs. Carlos Carrasco, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

López (2022): 167.0 IP, 162 K 50 BB, 20 HR, 3.88 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 2.4 bWAR

López is set to make his 31st start of the year, by far a career high for the right-hander. In addition, he has blown past his career high in innings. After the Mets torched him for a season-high eight earned runs on 10 hits over 3 ²⁄₃ innings, he has bounced back with two great starts in a row. He earned the victory against the Phillies on September 15, allowing two earned runs on four hits over 6 ²⁄₃ innings. His last time out, he settled for a no decision against the Cubs, as he was charged with one earned run on five hits over 6 ²⁄₃ innings.

Carrasco (2022): 145.0 IP, 147 K, 39 BB, 15 HR, 3.79 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 bWAR

Carrasco didn’t last long his last time out. He only made it four innings against Milwaukee and labored for much of it. He ended up being charged with three earned runs on five hits, with two walks and four strikeouts. It was a bump in the road after two really strong starts in a row for the right-hander. Cookie has done some of his best work this year against Miami, especially his last time against them, when he went six innings and allowed one earned run on four hits. Overall, he has allowed six earned runs in 25 ²⁄₃ innings against the Marlins this year.

Wednesday, September 28: Jesús Luzardo vs. Taijuan Walker, 7:10 p.m. on SNY

Luzardo (2022): 88.1 IP, 102 K 32 BB, 9 HR, 3.57 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.4 bWAR

Like López, Luzardo got hit around by the Mets three starts ago, as he was tagged for five earned runs on six hits in 3 ¹⁄₃ innings to take the loss. Also like Lopez, he rebounded with two great starts in a row. Two starts ago against Washington, he went six innings and allowed two earned runs on five hits, with one walk and six strikeouts. Then against the Cubs, he went 6 ²⁄₃ innings and allowed one earned runs on three hits while striking out 11. He did not factor in the decision either time.

Walker (2022): 148.0 IP, 114 K, 43 BB, 14 HR, 3.53 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 bWAR

Walker was handed a loss by the Brewers in his last start. He went six innings and was tagged for four earned runs on six hits, with three walks and three strikeouts in the outing. He tossed 88 pitches, with only 51 of them (57%) going for strikes. Every start Walker (and Carrasco) makes from here on out will be vital, since one of them will be left out of the postseason rotation when all is said and done. Each pitcher will likely get two more starts to make their case before the playoffs.

Prediction: The Mets and Marlins split the two-game set.