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How the Mets’ rotation looks with Luis Severino in it

There’s still work to do here, obviously.

New York Yankees v New York Mets Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

The Mets agreed to a one-year, $13 million deal with Luis Severino yesterday, the first move in the team’s efforts to build out a major league rotation heading into the 2024 season. On the surface, it’s an understandable if unexciting signing, as Severino had a pretty good track record when healthy before his very bad 2023 season.

At the moment, Severino is listed as the Mets’ third starter over at Roster Resource, and that seems like the rotation spot that he best fits right now. The expectation is that the Mets are from from done making additions to this part of the roster, but the current rotation looks like this:

  • Kodai Senga
  • José Quintana
  • Luis Severino
  • Tylor Megill
  • Joey Lucchesi

And José Butto would be next on the depth chart behind those five. Minor league pitchers Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Justin Jarvis, Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell, and Tyler Stuart are among the names that could get a major league shot at some point next year.

In terms of 2023 performance at the major league level, Severino ranks sixth among the top six pitchers on the current depth chart with the 6.65 ERA that he posted in 89.1 innings in the Yankees’ rotation. Megill was nearly two full runs better with a 4.70 ERA, and Butto, Quintana, Senga, and Lucchesi were all at least three runs better in ERA. By FIP, the pitchers ranked as follows: Quintana, Senga, Butto, Lucchesi, Megill, and Severino.

There’s still a long way to go in the offseason, and all three of Megill, Lucchesi, and Butto have minor league options remaining. Whether the Mets add enough pitchers to bump two of them to Syracuse to start the year remains to be seen, but ideally, they’d do that, bump Severino down to the fifth spot in the rotation, and have a strong rotation with reasonable depth options—including an eventual return from hip surgery by David Peterson—in Syracuse.