Mets host Padres for first time since Wild Card exit

Coming off a dismal series in Milwaukee early last week, the Mets fared much better over the weekend, as they beat the Marlins in a three-game series. With that, the team has a 5-5 record to begin the season, which isn’t spectacular but also certainly isn’t bad.

That series started with an easy win in the home opener, as the Mets’ offense put up nine runs on the Marlins. Tylor Megill was very good, as he threw six scoreless innings, and the Marlins were only able to make things somewhat close with a late three-run home run off Dennis Santana. The Mets answered immediately to re-establish a six-run lead and won easily.

On Saturday, Kodai Senga was excellent for the second time in as many starts to begin his major league career, and the Mets won again. Pete Alonso provided the biggest hit of that game, a two-run home run in the fifth inning.

The series finale, however, went poorly. Coming off a poor start in his first outing of the season, Carlos Carrasco got rocked again, surrendering six runs in four-and-two-thirds innings with just one strikeout, three walks, and two home runs allowed.

With all of that, the Mets are 5-2 against the Marlins, a team they need to and should beat as they attempt to win the National League East. Their overall record isn’t ideal, but they’re a game back of the 6-4 Braves and a game-and-a-half ahead of the 3-6 Phillies. Things could be worse.

Pete Alonso has been on fire lately, having launched four of his five home runs over the past seven days and slugged .750 in the process. He hasn’t been the Mets’ entire offense, but he’s hit as many home runs as the rest of his teammates combined. One big question facing the Mets in this series and the short term future is whether or not Starling Marte will miss any time after exiting the series finale against the Marlins with a neck strain.

It’s also worth noting that Francisco Álvarez got his first start at the major league level yesterday, two games after he joined the team to replace the injured Omar Narváez. The Mets would be wise to give him a lot of playing time moving forward, but Buck Showalter’s public comments haven’t indicated that they necessarily plan to do so.

The Padres come into the series pretty hot, having lost the opener of a four-game series in Atlanta but won all three of the remaining games over the weekend. They are 6-4 to start the season and tied for first place in the National League West with the Arizona Diamondbacks, with both teams one game ahead of the 5-5 Dodgers.

Monday, April 10: Yu Darvish vs. Max Scherzer, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Darvish (2023): 5.0 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 1.80 ERA, 5.74 FIP, 1.400 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Having thrown some innings during Japan’s WBC championship run in March, the 36-yaer-old Darvish will be making his second start of the 2023 season tonight. In his first, he faced the Diamondbacks, went five innings, and gave up one run on three hits with three strikeouts and four walks. Mets fans likely remember Darvish’s previous major league start clearly, albeit not so fondly, as he stymied the Mets’ offense in the opening game of the Wild Card series that the Padres eventually went on to win. In that start, he went seven innings and gave up just one run, and he pitched opposite Max Scherzer, just like he will tonight.

Scherzer (2023): 11.1 IP, 8 K, 4 BB, 4 HR, 6.35 ERA, 7.57 FIP, 1.412 WHIP, -0.2 bWAR

Scherzer’s first start of the 2023 season was going very well until it wasn’t, but he still eked out a quality start, giving up all three of his runs in the sixth inning of the Mets’ Opening Day win. His second start, however, was a mess, as he surrendered five runs in five-and-one-third innings to the Brewers. It’s far too early to panic, but it would be nice to see the 38-year-old get back on track with a gem against the team that tattooed him in that Wild Card matchup against Scherzer back in October.

Tuesday, April 11: Ryan Weathers vs. David Peterson, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Weathers (2023): 5.0 IP, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 3.60 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.200 WHIP, 0.1 bWAR

The 2002-2004 Mets weren’t exactly the best teams in franchise history, but David Weathers made 180 appearances out of the bullpen for the team over two-and-a-half seasons with a 3.22 ERA before the Mets traded him to the Astros for Richard Hidalgo. Ryan Weathers is his son, and this start will be the twenty-first of the lefty’s major league career, which began with him splitting time between the Padres’ bullpen and rotation in 2021. He spent the vast majority of last season at Triple-A and made just one start for the Padres, and he owns a 5.40 ERA through the first 103.1 innings of his major league career.

Peterson (2023): 9.0 IP, 10 K, 6 BB, 2 HR, 6.00 ERA, 6.07 FIP, 2.111 WHIP, -0.1 bWAR

Like Scherzer, Peterson has two starts under his belt so far this season, with the first one going well and the second one very much not. Peterson gave up just one run in five innings against the Marlins to start his season with five strikeouts and just one walk. Against the Brewers, however, he gave up five runs in four innings, and while he struck out five, he also walked five. He’ll probably need to make some improvements to stick around in the rotation once Justin Verlander returns.

Wednesday, April 12: TBD vs. Tylor Megill, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY

The Padres haven’t named a starter for the series finale yet, but the last time through their rotation, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez followed Darvish. With Weathers getting the start after Darvish in this series, presumably Snell would pitch the series finale. He has a 7.88 ERA through his first two starts this year, while Martinez has a 6.17 ERA through his first two.

Megill (2023): 11.0 IP, 10 K, 4 BB, 1 HR, 1.64 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.182 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

If Tylor Megill were to pitch exclusively in the month of April, he might win the Cy Young. Through his first two starts this year, he has a 1.64 ERA, and in 39.0 career April innings, he holds a 1.85 ERA. Megill faced the Marlins in both of his starts this year and gave up two runs in five innings in the first one before throwing six scoreless innings against them in the second.

Prediction: The Mets exact some revenge on the Padres by taking two of three in a series victory.