Mets ring in 2023 home schedule with three against the Marlins

The Mets (3-4) limp back to Citi Field to following a distressful conclusion to their season-opening road trip. Aided by an impromptu off day thanks to an ultimately-incorrect weather forecast, they will look to get back on track against the Marlins (3-4) with their home opener set for later this afternoon. The Mets will hope to replicate their home success from last season, when they went 54-27 at Citi Field. New York opened the season with three wins out of four games against Miami.

The Mets were swept at American Family Field against the Brewers and, quite frankly, the less I write about this series, the better. It started with a 10-0 loss on Monday, which was just all-around ugly. The Mets managed just three hits on offense, and their pitching didn’t fare much better, as Carlos Carrasco and Tommy Hunter each surrendered five earned runs.

Tuesday night was only slightly better, in that the Mets lost 9-0 instead of 10-0. The Mets did collect eight hits this time around, three of which came from Brandon Nimmo and another three from Jeff McNeil. Max Scherzer struggled in the first, allowing two runs, but he settled down until the sixth inning, when he served up back-to-back-to-back homers for only the second time in his Hall of Fame career. Brooks Raley threw gasoline on the fire, as he was tattooed for four earned runs in the seventh. If there’s one positive to be said about this game, it’s that it only took two hours and 17 minutes.

Milwaukee completed the sweep with a walkoff home run in a Wednesday matinee. The Mets’ offense actually showed up for this one, and it was their two big hitters leading the charge. Francisco Lindor picked up three hits and drove in two runs, while Pete Alonso bashed two home runs and drove in the team’s other four runs against Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes. Unfortunately, David Peterson was not up to the task of keeping Milwaukee at bay, as he allowed five earned runs over four innings. Drew Smith allowed a run in the fifth, and things remained tied until the bottom of the ninth. That’s when Garrett Mitchell ended things with a game-deciding dinger against Adam Ottavino.

The Marlins bounced back from a lousy opening series to take two out of three against the Twins. They endured an 11-1 drubbing on Monday, but bounced back to win the final two games and climb to within one game of the .500 mark. It was the Sandy Alcántara show on Tuesday, as the 2022 Cy Young Award winner hurled a three-hit, complete game shutout in a game that clocked in at one hour and 57 minutes. On Wednesday, Miami was stymied by former friend Pablo López, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball, but the Marlins used a four-spot in the eighth to pick up the victory and the series win.

Friday, April 7: Edward Cabrera vs. Tylor Megill, 1:10 p.m. on SNY

Cabrera (2023): 4.0 IP, 2 K 6 BB, 0 HR, 4.50 ERA, 6.70 FIP, 2.00 WHIP, 0.0 bWAR

Cabrera was able to limit the damage in his first go-around this season, allowing two earned runs in four innings against New York. The really concerning number in his final line is the number of walks he allowed. He issued six free passes in the game against just two strikeouts. He escaped with a no decision, but his team suffered a loss in the end.

Megill (2023): 5.0 IP, 7 K 2 BB, 1 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 0.1 bWAR

One year after getting the Opening Day nod, Megill will take the hill in the team’s home opener. Megill wasn’t great in his season debut, but he was good enough to pick up the victory. He held Miami to two earned runs over five innings, allowing six hits while walking two and striking out seven. The update on Justin Verlander seemed to indicate that he is still a little ways away from a return, so Megill will continue getting opportunities to build upon his first start and show that he deserves a role on this team.

Saturday, April 8: Trevor Rogers vs. Kodai Senga, 4:10 p.m. on SNY

Rogers (2023): 4.1 IP, 4 K 2 BB, 1 HR, 6.23 ERA, 7.12 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, -0.1 bWAR

Rogers got knocked around by the Mets in his last start. He was tagged for four runs, three of which were earned, on four hits. He struck out four and walked two and was unable to escape the fifth inning. His start was marked by two runs in his first inning and two in his final frame. The left-hander will look for a better result this time around against the Mets.

Senga (2023): 5.1 IP, 8 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 1.69 ERA, 1.89 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Senga got off to an inauspicious start to his MLB career. For a while, it looked like he wouldn’t even escape the first inning. He already allowed a run and had the bases loaded, but he struck out the next two batters and was able to escape the jam without further damage. He settled in nicely from there and turned in a terrific debut, tossing 5 ¹⁄₃ innings and striking out eight while walking three. He ended up earning his first victory in the major leagues, and generated a lot of excitement in the process with his ghost fork.

Sunday, April 9: TBD vs. Carlos Carrasco, 1:40 p.m. on SNY

Carrasco (2023): 152.0 IP, 152 K 41 BB, 17 HR, 3.97 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 1.2 bWAR

The Marlins have not announced a starting pitcher for Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Mets.

Carrasco (2023): 4.0 IP, 4 K 4 BB, 1 HR, 11.25 ERA, 7.45 FIP, 2.00 WHIP, -0.2 bWAR

Carrasco’s first start of the year was a concerning one, to say the least. Carrasco was tattooed for five earned runs over his four innings. Worse yet, his velocity declined with each passing inning. It could be the veteran getting used to the pace of the game with the pitch clock, or it could be signs of a decline. Either way, the team will need Carrasco to give them length in games with Megill and David Peterson occupying two of the rotation spots for the foreseeable future and, at least for one start, the right-hander was unable to do that.

Prediction: The Mets take two out of three against Miami.