Scouting Prospect Stat Lines: Top 25 April Arrows

You're not supposed to scout prospects stat-lines. But where's the fun in that? Dreaming on the future often beats living in the present especially when it's riddled with rainouts, injuries and series losses to weak division rivals. So, let's indulge in the forbidden and scout some small sample stat lines!!

The awesome prospect team at AA ranks the Mets pre-season Top 25 prospects each year. Four of the Top 25 are currently with the big club (or recently optioned) so no arrows for Alvarez, Baty, Senga or Butto which leads us to ...


#4. Kevin Parada, 22 in August, A+

.213/.338/.328, 1 HR, 14.9bb%, 21.6k%, 85 wRC+

The Georgia Tech backstop was selected 11th overall with the expectation that he would be a fast-moving, college bat who should remain behind the dish. Some around these parts even predicted a quick promotion to Binghamton. His mediocre start has further sputtered of late as he's struck out 8 times in his last 7 games. The only part of his game that is above average is his walk-rate. His 4 throwing errors plus 3 passed balls raise questions about his future position. But those will be moot if he doesn't start to crush A+ pitching soon.


#5. Jett Williams, 19, Low A

.241/.453/.370, 1 HR, 20bb%, 20k%, 149 wRC+

The #14 overall selection of 2022 was a little polarizing due to his 5’6" frame. Walk rate aside, his April stat line doesn’t leap out as exceptional but the free passes boost his wRC+ to a massive 152. For a kid playing A ball as a 19-year-old that’s a hugely encouraging sign. Based on wRC+, these Jett-engines are roaring at altitude. And a single 3-hit game would provide the hit tool a small-sample boost. Three other notes: he’s only 5 of 9 in stolen bases, he has not appeared since leaving Wednesday’s game early and when he is on the field, he’s now seeing time in CF in addition to his drafted position of shortstop.


#6. Blade Tidwell, 22 in June, A+

16k/7bb, 5.56 ERA, 3g, 11.1ip, 12h, 1HR

The highest ranked non-Senga division pitcher in the system is a 2022 draftee taken out of college in the second round at number 52 overall. The way-too-early ERA screams "bust" but 12.7 strikeouts/9ip holler "stud!" Is the 5.6/9ip walk-rate going to be the tiebreaker? Like with all but the most extreme performers, it’s way too early to glean much more than he hasn’t come out of the gate like gangbusters.


#7. Alex Ramirez, 20, A+

.294/.342/.382, 1 HR, 6.8bb%, 16.4k%, 95 wRC+

Sporting a batting average that is 50+ points higher than Jett Williams while also playing at a higher level, Alex Ramirez somehow has a wRC+ that is 54% lower. I see the difference in walk-rates but don’t really get this. The FSL has historically been considered a pitcher’s league, so I’d expect a wRC+ to be higher here. Not much power yet but the free-swinger has lowered his k-rate by 6% which is a great sign. The <7% walk-rate needs a boost unless he’s going to start clustering 450-foot bombs a la Ronny Mauricio. Failure to improve his current rate of 1 HR every 73 PA’s would put a damper on expectations that he might possess all five tools. But he's still a scrawny kid who has yet to fill out his frame and he's plenty young enough to warrant a large dose of patience.


#8. Mark Vientos, 23, AAA

.367/.449/.733, 8 HR, 12.1 bb%, 21.5 k%, 193 wRC+

Is that really Mark Vientos or is it a video-game icon at AAA? While the .424 BABIP isn’t sustainable the AA team has reported that he’s topping the IL in exit velocity. The k-rate is even down 7% from his first taste of AAA in 2022. All from a guy that started each of the prior two seasons poorly. The value proposition gets a bit squishy when he swaps batting gloves for a fielder mitt but I’ve watched a bunch of Syracuse games via and have seen him make some good plays. That's probably just small sample size luck on my part but maybe he’s making some progress. The only things that could prevent him from seeing time with the Mets this year are injury or trade.


#9. Ronny Mauricio, 22, AAA

.321/.363/.585, 6 HR, 4.4 bb%, 21.2 k%, 137 wRC+

Six months-ago I was virtually a lone voice preaching patience for Ronny who many pegged as an irretrievably broken hype job who had permanently tanked his value. Today I’m here to urge caution that the Ronny train still needs some oil before hitting top speed despite his early '23 flash of all-world tools.

His first torrid thirteen games saw him hit six HR’s, five doubles and a triple with a 1.316 ops, 18.2k% and 7.3bb%.

His most recent 14 games/58 PA’s clock in with 0 HR’s, three doubles, a .615 ops, 1.7bb% and 24.1k%. Hopefully this is just the normal ebb and flow of a season but the homer-less run coupled with a .298 obp is concerning.

The overall body of work warrants the recent move to 2B in preparation for a likely multi-position role at the next level. Another thing to watch is that after a rip-roaring 200 PA/5 HR Winter League stint, fatigue might set in at some point in 2023. My take – often unpopular – is to pump the brakes on Ronny being a big piece early in 2023. Hopefully he settles into a steadier production arc and is ready to come up for good at the end of the summer.


#10. Dominic Hamel, 24, AA

19k/13bb, 2.30 ERA, 4g, 15.2ip, 10h, 1HR

The stat-line of the overall #81 pick of the Mets in the third round of 2021 presents a conundrum: Should we the revel in the tingles from the terrific k-rate, hit suppression and ERA or convulse over the nearly one walk per inning? Keep an eye on what Steve and team write about how his stuff plays in games to get a sense of whether he's doing poorly or well. This isn't Junior Santos pitching at the same level as a 22-year-old, as a 24-year-old at AA Dominic needs to get walks under control sooner than later.


#12. Mike Vasil, 23, AA

27k/2bb, 4.50 ERA, 4g, 16ip, 12h, 3HR

The Mets 8th rounder from the 2021 draft is worth keeping an eye on. The club reportedly saw him as the steal of that draft. While his 4.50 ERA doesn’t leap out, his 15.2 k’s/9ip versus 1.1 walks are a welcome relief from most of the other starting pitching prospects propensity for way too many free passes. His first 3 starts saw him only allow 1 HR in his first 12 innings, but his latest start saw him give up two in four innings. Maintaining 12 hits + 2 walks every 16 innings ought to play. Depending on what happens with their respective walk-rates might we see Vasil beat Hamel to Queens?


#13. Stanley Consuegra, 23 in late Sept, A+

.274/.366/.565, .931 ops, 4 HR, 11.3bb%, 19.7k%, 140 wRC+

Whoa! That’s quite an improvement from his 90 wRC+ in 249 PAs at the same level last season! Full speed ahead, right? Yes and no. While The outfielder is not exactly too old for the FSL, at 4 months below average age he’s also not as young as the typical high-ceiling performers – which makes sense given his #13 rank on AA’s list. So based on the stat line it’s a "Great job Stanley, let’s get you to Binghamton ASAP and see how much of this momentum stands up to better pitching." You can only beat the teams you play so this is a really encouraging sign from a guy not yet as well known to most Mets fans. He's my top choice for early promotion and a successful run at AA could vault him up national prospect rankings.


#14. Jacob Reimer, 19 in late Sept, Low A

.277/.429/.308, .737 ops, 0 HR, 15.5 bb%, 17.9 k%, 126 wRC+

The 19-year-old corner infielder is nearly 3.5 years younger than Consuegra and is slapping + walking his way to success at one level lower. His wRC+ is boosted by a 20% walk rate and five HBP’s in his first 20 games. Fifteen singles plus two doubles are his entire hit line which equates to a meek .308 slugging percentage/.031 ISO. He’s young for the league and an April look-in is least fair to players like Jacob. But this is a pretty soft up-arrow for him. Would love to know his exit velocities but he's got to start pounding some extra base hits.


#18. Layonel Ovalles, 20 in June, Low A

9k/7bb, 4HBP, 3.95 ERA, 4g, 13.2ip, 10h, 2HR

Another 19-year-old at Lucie who had a real stumble on Sunday allowing 4er in 3.2ip but that clunker only raised his ERA to 3.95. But while he was blowing away hitters to the tune of 11.4 k’s/9ip in 17+ Low A innings last season albeit with 6+ walks/9ip and a 6+ ERA, the 2023 k-rate has collapsed to 5.9/9ip with an improved but un-stellar 4.6 walks per 9ip. Yet fewer hits than ip and his ERA is under 4 which for his age/level is nothing to sneeze at. Another case where, the stat line offers no meaningful insight though his walks + HBP's outnumber his k's. Yet another arm that struggles to throw strikes. Keep eyes posted for our prospect maven’s comments as April turns to May.


#21. Junior Santos, 22 in August, AA

16k/7bb, 5.59 ERA, 4g, 19.1ip, 23h, 2HR

Junior will only be 22 in August; he’s got a good walk rate and allows less than 1 HR/9ip. Those are the positives. Unfortunately, the k/9ip rate is 7.45 with a 1.55 WHIP. Yet again, very tough to know what to make of the stat line. But since this is scouting the stat line, I think the lack of run prevention means that he’s got to wear a down arrow despite his being only 22 at AA.


#23. Eric Orze, 25, AAA

10k/7bb, 6.35 ERA, 7g, 11.1ip, 6h, 1HR

It doesn’t look like Orze is ready to run the Syracuse bullpen shuttle as previously hoped. Or maybe he’s just got the worst luck in the league …. 7 walks + 6 hits in 11.1ip doesn’t typically = a 6.35 ERA. Bad sequencing? His xFIP is over 6 as well.


#25. William Lugo, 21, A+

.333/.500/.500, 0 HR, 25bb%, 12.5k%, 176 wRC+

The IFA signee just started playing this week and has only made 2 appearances. That's even too small sample for me!!! But he’s 2-6 with a double and two walks so get working on that plaque for Cooperstown. To be continued …

The others:

Top prospects Francisco Alvarez (#1), Kodai Senga (#2), Brett Baty (#3) and Jose Butto (#17) are with the big club or bouncing between there and Syracuse. All have made contributions.

Pitchers Calvin Ziegler (#11), Joel Diaz (#15), Matt Allan (#16) and Bryce Montes deOca (#18) are all out for the season with injuries. This mass of injuries is a blow to the club's pitching depth for 2023 and potentially moving forward. It's hard to see how yet another injury isn't a big down arrow for at least Matt Allan.

International signees Jesus Baez (#20), Willy Fanas (#22) and Simon Juan (#24) are unlikely to play stateside for at least a couple of months so there are no stat lines to scout.

If you enjoyed this give it a rec and if it seems like there's enough interest I'll try to do another version once May turns to June. And be sure to tip the AA team of prospect writers. They provide a massive amount of great info on a daily basis. It's a huge undertaking and they do an awesome job.

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