Mets look for some revenge in three-game set against Rockies

Fresh off their visit to Wrigley Field, the Mets (26-25) finish their road trip with a three-game series against the Rockies (22-29). The Mets faced Colorado earlier this month at Citi Field, where they dropped two out of three. Last year, they won two of three at Coors Field and, over their past three seasons, they’ve won six of nine in Denver.

The Mets dropped two of three to the Cubs, which isn’t all that surprising since they’ve gone 19-43 at Wrigley Field since 2003. They dropped the first game 7-2 thanks to some sloppy defense and an ineffective outing from Tylor Megill. Chicago jumped ahead with a four-spot in the second, and it was pretty much over from there. The Mets mustered just six hits, three of which came courtesy of Brandon Nimmo. Pete Alonso also contributed his 18th homer of the season in a losing effort.

The offense was again stagnant on Wednesday night as they lost 4-2. Kodai Senga navigated into and out of trouble all evening, and thanks to the Cubs leaving a small army on base, the Mets still had a shot to win this game. Unfortunately, Marcus Stroman was at his best, pitching eight innings while keeping the Mets off base for most of the game. The Mets didn’t even get a baserunner into scoring position until the eighth inning. A Francisco Álvarez two-run homer accounted for all the offense.

The Mets broke through in the Thursday finale with a resounding 10-1 victory to avoid the sweep. The Mets collected 15 hits, including three from Jeff McNeil, and two apiece from Nimmo, Álvarez, and Starling Marte. Alonso hit his league-leading 19th homer of the season in the rout. Not to be lost in the offensive outburst, Carlos Carrasco turned in his best effort of the season, pitching into the seventh while allowing one earned run.

Alonso has been on a home run tear since the Mets last faced off against Colorado. Over the past 16 games, he’s crushed eight homers, which is the second-most among NL players (behind the Cubs’ Christopher Morel, who has homered in nine of 14 games, including five straight, since joining Chicago this year). In that span, his 189 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR both rank 11th in the National League, while his .429 ISO is third among NL batters. He is currently on pace to reach the 60-home run plateau if he keeps this up.

The Rockies did the Mets a favor this week by taking care of the Marlins, winning three of four against Miami. Prior to that, they had been swept by the Rangers.

Since Colorado left Citi Field, Elias Díaz has continued his torrid pace, slashing .356/.431/.644 with a 176 wRC+ and a 0.7 fWAR in 12 games. For perspective, he leads his team in every single one of those five categories during that stretch, while also slugging the most home runs (3) of any player on the Rockies. Jurickson Profar has also been on a hot streak, hitting .347/.396/.612 with two homers, a 157 wRC+, and a 0.3 fWAR in 13 games since May 9. Conversely, Kris Bryant has been mired in a terrible slump, hitting just .196/.255/.216 since May 9. He has not homered and has posted an ugly 18 wRC+ and a -0.5 fWAR.

Friday, May 26: Max Scherzer vs. Connor Seabold, 8:40 p.m. on WPIX

Scherzer (2023): 33.2 IP, 31 K, 13 BB, 6 HR, 4.01 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Scherzer is coming off one of his finer outings of 2023. In his start against the Guardians, he hurled six shutout frames, scattering three hits while walking one and striking out five. In two outings since returning from neck spasms, he has allowed just one earned run over 11 innings while striking out 11. He still doesn’t look like vintage, dominant Scherzer, but if he can pitch to these results, the team will be happy.

Seabold (2023): 31.2 IP, 25 K, 11 BB, 6 HR, 5.97 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 0.0 bWAR

Seabold is making his fifth start of 2023 after beginning the year as a reliever for Colorado. The move to the rotation hasn’t been a smooth one. He started out well, allowing four earned runs over 10 innings in his first two starts, including a win against the Pirates. Since then, however, the third-year pitcher allowed six runs (four earned) in 4 ¹⁄₃ innings against the Reds, and followed that up by lasting just 3 ²⁄₃ innings and allowing five earned runs on five hits against the Rangers. He will look to bounce back against the Mets, a team he has yet to face in his brief big league career.

Saturday, May 27: Justin Verlander vs. Chase Anderson, 9:10 p.m. on WPIX

Verlander (2023): 25.0 IP, 20 K, 5 BB, 5 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 0.4 bWAR

Verlander became the first Met pitcher in 2023 to complete eight innings of work, which was a welcome sight for a team that has seen far too many short outings from their starters. Against Cleveland, the ace tossed eight innings of one-run ball, as he allowed three hits while striking out five on Sunday Night Baseball. In the process, he lowered his ERA by a full run after his disastrous home debut against the Rays. Hopefully that outing is a sign of things to come from Verlander, whose 3,218 career strikeouts sit just six behind his teammate Scherzer.

Anderson (2023): 15.2 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 1.15 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 0.7 bWAR

Anderson started out the year with Tampa Bay’s bullpen, but was DFA’ed after the Rays picked up Jake Diekman. That’s how he found his way to Colorado, and he will now make his third start for the Rockies. In his debut for Colorado, he hurled five one-hit innings, striking out three while walking one. He followed that up with 5 ²⁄₃ innings of two-run ball, though he did allow eight hits and two walks while striking out just one batter.

Sunday, May 28: Tylor Megill vs. Austin Gomber, 3:10 p.m. on SNY

Megill (2023): 50.0 IP, 40 K, 25 BB, 8 HR, 4.32 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.48 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Megill struggled in his start at Wrigley Field, there’s no delicate way to put it. His 3 ²⁄₃ innings constitute his shortest start of 2023, while his six runs is a season-worst. He allowed six hits and walked two. On a positive note, his five strikeouts were his most since the seven he struck out in his season debut. Prior to that, he had cobbled together two good starts in a row, allowing three runs (two earned) on eight hits over 11 innings.

Gomber (2023): 50.0 IP, 31 K, 19 BB, 11 HR, 6.48 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 0.0 bWAR

Gomber’s numbers aren’t great, but the overall marks are a bit misleading. After getting rocked to the tune of nine earned runs in two innings against the Pirates on April 19, his ERA was an unsightly 12.12. He was saddled with a loss in each of his first four starts this year. Since then, he’s picked up four wins without a loss across his six starts, including a victory against the Mets on May 6. During that stretch, he has a 3.74 ERA, a 5.36 FIP, and a 1.13 WHIP in 33 ²⁄₃ innings. In his last start against Miami, he picked up the win while tossing 5 ²⁄₃ innings and allowing three earned runs.

Prediction: The Mets bounce back by taking two out of three against the Rockies.