FanPost

Scouting Prospect Stat Lines Pt. 2: May Update

Welcome to part two of "You're not supposed to scout prospects stat-lines" where we violate the fundamental tenet of prospect evaluation and do it with gusto!

Folks seemed interested in part one, so here's an update that shows separate April & May lines. As before, if you'd enjoy seeing another one when June wraps hit the rec button and I'll try to rally to keep this series going.

There are other performers of note but I'm limiting this to the Top 25 list build by the awesome prospect team at AA in the off-season.

#4. Kevin Parada, 22 in August, A+

April .213/.338/.328, 1 HR, 14.9bb%, 21.6k%, 87 wRC+

May .269, .352, .452, 2 HR, 6.7bb%, 25.7k%, 119 wRC+

April: The college catcher was selected with 11th overall with the expectation that he would be a fast-moving, college bat who should remain at catcher. Some around these parts predicted a quick promotion to Binghamton. His very mediocre start has fallen off even further over the past week. The only part of his game that is above average is his walk-rate. His 4 throwing errors plus 3 passed balls raise questions about his future position.

5fIH6pj.0.pngMay: Pretty much every metric has seen dramatic movement - the walk-rate has nearly halved but the k-rate seems high for a college guy in the FSL. But improvement is improvement and not every successful prospect comes out of the gates fast.

#5. Jett Williams, 19, Low A

April .241/.453/.370, 1 HR, 20bb%, 20k%, 152 wRC+

May .175/.351/.228, 0HR, 18.2bb%, 27.3k%, 83wRC+

April: The #14 overall selection of 2022 was a little polarizing due to his 5'6" frame. Walk rate aside, his April stat line doesn't leap out as much of anything but it boosts his wRC+ to a massive 152. For a kid playing his entire season at A ball as a 19-year-old that's a hugely encouraging sign. Based on wRC+, these Jett-engines are roaring at altitude. Hopefully the hit tool gets a short-sample bump. Three other notes: he's only 5 of 9 in stolen bases, he has not appeared since leaving Wednesday's game early and when he is on the field, he's now seeing time in CF in addition to his drafted position of shortstop.

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: The Jett has hit some turbulence and the breeze created by the May whiff rate is chilly. But the flight has not yet reached cruising altitude.

#6. Blade Tidwell, 22 in June, A+

April 16k/7bb, 5.56 ERA, 3g, 11.1ip, 12h, 1HR

May 30k,18bb, 5.23 ERA, 5g, 20.2ip, 12h, 3HR

April: The highest ranked non-Senga division pitcher in the system is yet another 2022 draftee taken out of college in the second round at number 52 overall. The way-too-early ERA screams "bust" but 12.7 strikeouts/9ip holler "stud!" Is the 5.6/9ip walk-rate going to be the tiebreaker? Like with all these guys, it's way too early to glean anything more than he hasn't come out of the gate like gangbusters.

VW474bK.0.pngMay: Take that scream from April and turn the volume up a notch. With the k-rate moving slightly higher to 13/9ip but the walk rate jumping by 2/9ip .... the issue is clear. If he can fix it, it's easy to dream on Tidwell's ability to avoid contact and project his as a ToR stud. If he can't imagine the nightmare of Ollie Perez at his wildest. Of course, that profile isn't particularly rare.

#7. Alex Ramirez, 20, A+

April .294/.342/.382, 1 HR, 6.8bb%, 16.4k%, 98 wRC+

May .222/.340/.344, 2 HR, 13.2bb%, 25.5k%, 94wRC+

April: Playing at a level higher than Jett Williams and sporting a batting average that is 50 points higher, Alex Ramirez somehow has a wRC+ that is 54% lower than Jett. I see the difference in walk-rates but don't really get this. The FSL has historically been considered a pitcher's league, so I'd expect a wRC+ to be higher here. Not much power yet but the free-swinger has lowered his k-rate by 6% which is a great sign. The >7% walk-rate needs to boost unless he's going to start clustering 450-foot bombs ala Ronny Mauricio. But his current rate of 1 HR every 73 PA's would put a damper on expectations.

5fIH6pj.0.pngMay: Conflicting walk and k-rate numbers in May but much more backsliding than progress. He's so young. He could become a star but has a lot more development to do before he can even project as a regular. If you've got him penned in as a '25 starter in Queens consider slowing your roll.

#8. Mark Vientos, 23, AAA

.367/.456/.721, 8 HR, 12.6bb%, 21.4k%, 196 wRC+

May .275/.356/.608, 5 HR, 10.2bb%, 18.6k%, 131 wRC+

April: Mark Vientos has become a video-game icon at AAA. While the .424 BABIP isn't sustainable the AA team has reported that he's topping the league in exit velocity. The k-rate is even down 7% from his first taste of AAA in 2022. The value proposition loses steam when he swaps his hitting gloves for a fielding glove. But I've watched a bunch of Syracuse games via mlb.tv and have seen him make some good plays. That is likely just small sample size luck but maybe it's a sign he's made some progress. The only things that could prevent him from seeing time with the Mets this year is injury or trade.

5fIH6pj.0.pngMay: Hopefully Mark will be signing a long-term lease on a place in Queens.

#9. Ronny Mauricio, 22, AAA

April .321/.363/.585, 6 HR, 4.4bb%, 21.2k%, 133 wRC+

May .367/.407/.541 1HR, 5.1bb%, 9.3k%, 136 wRC+

April: Six months-ago I was a virtually lone voice preaching patience for Ronny who many pegged as an irretrievably broken hype job who had permanently tanked his value. Today I'm here to urge caution that the Ronny train still needs to take a beat before fully embracing his early flash of all-world tools ... My take -€” often unpopular -€” is to pump the brakes on Ronny being a big piece in 2023. Hopefully he settles into a steadier production arc and is ready to come up for good at the end of the summer.

5fIH6pj.0.pngMay: Never trust a hot start .... Ronny's the exception that proves the rule. He must be swinging at everything and hitting everything. That May k-rate is pretty insane .... The one warning sign is only 1 HR in his last 166 PAs.

#10. Dominic Hamel, 24, AA

April 19k/13bb, 2.30 ERA, 4g, 15.2ip, 10h, 1HR

May 29k/2bb, 6.17 ERA, 5g, 23.1ip, 29h, 4HR

April: The stat-line of the overall #81 pick of the Mets in the third round of 2021 presents a conundrum: Should we the revel in the tingles from the terrific hit suppression and ERA performance or convulse over the nearly one walk per inning? Not sure the stat-line tells us much of anything about his start. Keep an eye on what Steve and team write about his performances to get any info of value.

VW474bK.0.png May: 29k's in 23.1ip is consistent with what April and he added an ace-like walk rate to the mix of 2bb in23.1ip! He's the one right? Not yet. 1.24 hits/inning with 1.54 HRs every 9ip led to a nearly 4 run jump in his ERA. What is going on? Hamel remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Don't change the channel, this show could still have a happy ending.

#12. Mike Vasil, 23, AA

April 27k/2bb, 4.50 ERA, 4g, 16ip, 12h, 3HR

May 21k/4bb, 2.52ip, 4g, 25ip, 14h, 3HR

April: The Mets 8th rounder out of 2021 is worth keeping an eye on. The club reportedly saw him as the steal of that draft. While his 4.50 ERA doesn't leap out, his 15.2 k's/9ip versus 1.1 walks are a welcome relief from most of the clubs other starting pitchers. His first 3 starts saw him only allow 1 HR in his first 12 innings, but his latest start saw him give up two in four innings. But his 12 hits + 2 walks allowed in 16 innings ought to play. Depending on what happens with their respective walk-rates might we see Vasil beat Hamel to Queens?

5fIH6pj.0.pngMay: Yeah baby! Only 4 walks in 25ip -€” someone that can find the k-zone! For the season he's allowed 6 walks & 6 HRs in 41ip. Missed his most recent turn after leaving his last start with what Gameday called a hand injury.

#13. Stanley Consuegra, 23 in late Sept, A+

.274/.366/.565, .931 ops, 4 HR, 11.3bb%, 19.7k%, 142 wRC+

.222/.250/.361, .611 ops, 1 HR, 3.9bb%, 28.9k%, 61 wRC+

April: Whoa! That's quite an improvement from his 90 wRC+ in 249 PAs at the same level last season! Full speed ahead, right? Yes and no. While The outfielder is not old for the FSL, at 4 months below average age he's also as young as the typical the profile for high-ceiling performers -€” which makes sense given his #13 rank on AA's list. So based on the stat line it's a "Great job Stanley, let's get you up to AA ASAP and see how much of this momentum you can carry up north." You can only beat the teams you play so this is a really encouraging sign from a guy not yet as well known to most Mets fans.

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: There's a rumor that someone kidnapped Stanley Consuegra and replaced him with 62 year-old Stanley Tucci. Yeah, I started that rumor but what other explanation could there be? Remember: Be skeptical of a hot-start.

#14. Jacob Reimer, 19 in late Sept, Low A

April .277/.429/.308, .736 ops, 0 HR, 15.5bb%, 17.9k%, 127 wRC+

May .203/.309/.304, .613 ops, 2 HR, 11.1bb%, 24.7k%, 81 wRC+

April: The 19-year-old corner infielder is nearly 3.5 years younger than Consuegra and is sort-of holding his own at a lower level. His wRC+ is driven by a 20% walk rate and five HBP's in his first 20 games. Fifteen singles plus two doubles are his entire hit line which equates to a sub .300 slugging percentage. He's young for the league and an April look-in is least fair to players like Jacob. But this is a very soft up-arrow for him.

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: Not the trend you want to see. The only possible silver lining is that he's 5-8 over his last 3 games. But overall May is a big disappointment. Only 3 doubles and 2 HRs all season suggest the "doesn't hit the ball in the air" critiques are on the mark.

#18. Layonel Ovalles, 20 in June, Low A

April 9k/7bb, 3.95 ERA, 4g, 13.2ip, 10h, 2HR

May 12k/12bb, 9.28 ERA, 4g, 10.2ip, 10h, 1HR

April: ... while he was blowing away hitters to the tune of 11.4 k's/9ip in 17+ Low A innings last season albeit with 6+ walks/9ip and a 6+ ERA, that k-rate has collapsed to 5.9/9ip with an improved but un-stellar 4.6 k's per 9ip ...

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: So the May k-rate recovered to 10.1/9ip reminiscent of his '22 strength. But it's accompanied by an identical bb rate .... At least he's still only 20 but I just can't give an up arrow to a guy that walks more than one an inning.

#21. Junior Santos, 22 in August, AA

April 16k/7bb, 5.59 ERA, 4g, 19.1ip, 23h, 2HR

May 15k/13bb, 6.31 ERA, 5g, 25.2ip, 32h, 2HR

April: Junior will only be 22 in August; he's got a good walk rate and allows less than 1 HR/9ip. Those are the positives. Unfortunately, the k/9ip rate is 7.45 with a 1.55 WHIP. Yet again, very tough to know what to make of the stat line. But since this is scouting the stat line, I think he's got to wear a down arrow.

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: The k/bb ratio has deteriorated, as has the hit/innings and the ERA has followed suit. Uggh. But maybe there is hope... Tuesday night he went 8 innings, 2r/er, w/7 hits, 5 k's and zero walks. Junior needs to go on a run.

#23. Eric Orze, 25, AAA

April 10k/7bb, 6.35 ERA, 7g, 11.1ip, 6h, 1HR

May 17k/6bb, 9.00 ERA, 7g, 12ip, 21h, 2 HR

April: Doesn't look like Orze is ready to run the Syracuse bullpen shuttle. Or maybe he's just got the worst luck in the league .... 7 walks + 6 hits in 11.1ip doesn't typically = a 6.35 ERA. Bad sequencing? His xFIP is over 6 as well.

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: 21 hits in 12 innings? Yep. Plus 6 walks. But wait .... 17 k's too! smh

#25. William Lugo, 21, A+

April .333/.500/.500, 0 HR, 25bb%, 12.5k%, 177 wRC+

May .188/.290/.275, 1 HR, 10.8bb%, 33.3k%, 61 wRC+

April: The IFA signee just started playing this week and has only made 2 appearances. But he's 2-6 with a double and two walks so get working on that plaque for Cooperstown! To be continued ...

3nvVViF.0.pngMay: Doesn't get much uglier than this. Maybe May is his April and he'll soon hit stride?

The others:

Francisco Alvarez (#1), Kodai Senga (#2), Brett Baty (#3), Jose Butto (#17) and now Mark Vientos (#8) are with the big club or bouncing between there and Syracuse. All have made meaningful contributions.

Pitchers Calvin Ziegler (#11), Joel Diaz (#15), Matt Allan (#16), Bryce Montes deOca (#18) are all out for the season with injuries. This mass of injuries is a blow to the club's pitching depth for 2023 and potentially moving forward.

International signees Jesus Baez (#20), Willy Fanas (#22) and Simon Juan (#24) are unlikely to play stateside for a bit so there are no stat lines to scout.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.