Mets ready to rumble with Yankees in Round 1 of Subway Series

The Mets (31-35) return home for Round One of the Subway Series as they square off with the Yankees (38-29). The Mets and Yankees split their four games last year, with each team sweeping the two-game sets on their home turf. The Bronx Bombers have, historically, dominated the Subway Series, winning 78 games against 60 losses, but the Mets have at least kept it interesting in recent years, winning 14 of the last 26 games against the Yankees.

The Mets are coming off dropped two of three against the Pirates and PNC Park to conclude a dismal 1-5 road trip after getting swept by the Braves. The first game was a nightmare which extended the team’s losing streak to seven games—their longest since June 2019—as they fell by a 14-7 score. The final makes it seem closer than it actually was, as they fell behind 14-2 at one point before putting up five in the ninth inning to make it somewhat interesting. Tylor Megill was tattooed for nine runs (seven earned) over 3 ²⁄₃ while Zach Muckenhirn and Tommy Hunter—both of whom are gone now—gave up the remaining runs. Francisco Lindor hit a homer to tie it up at two in the third, which was the only time this game felt within reach.

The Mets finally broke their long losing streak with a 5-1 victory on Sunday. Kodai Senga played the role of stopper, pitching seven innings while allowing one unearned run. On offense, Mark Canha broke the tie in the seventh with a two-run double, and he added an insurance run in the ninth with another run-scoring double. Francisco Álvarez also hit a solo blast, his fourth home run in as many games as he tied Lindor for second on the club with 12 dingers. Brandon Nimmo pair a pair of stellar catches in center against Connor Joe, one of which saved three potential runs when he robbed him against the wall with the bases loaded. David Robertson and Adam Ottavino shut the door in the eighth and the ninth, respectively, to close out the victory.

The Mets had no answer for Pittsburgh ace Mitch Keller in a 2-1 loss on Sunday afternoon. They managed just three hits—a Jeff McNeil homer, a Canha single, and a Tommy Pham double in the ninth to briefly give the team hope. After they grabbed the lead with McNeil’s fourth inning homer, Carlos Carrasco surrendered two runs in the bottom half of the frame and that was all she wrote.

The Mets did exhibit some signs of life on offense, save for the first and last games of the road trip. Álvarez, who went hitless on the team’s 3-3 homestand, was great over the past six games, slashing .227/.261/.773. His power was on full display, as he cranked four homers and led the club with a 174 wRC+. Lindor also had a nice road trip, slashing .250/.375/.600 with two home runs and a 167 wRC+. Pham also exhibited some great pop, recording five extra base hits, including four doubles and a home run, as he saw more playing time with the club using Canha at first base.

The Yankees enter this series after losing two of three to the Red Sox. They split the first two before losing on Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees were six outs away from the win in the finale, but Boston plated one in the eighth and one in the tenth to emerge victorious.

Despite the setback, the Yankees find themselves in a playoff spot at the moment and are third in their division behind the Rays and the Orioles. The Yankees are not quite the offensive juggernaut people were expecting, as they are currently seventh in the AL in runs (304) and OPS (.717), and eighth in wRC+ (98). The Bronx Bombers are living up to their moniker with 102 homers, which is second in the AL behind Tampa Bay.

That offense will need to survive for a little bit without its star player, as Aaron Judge landed on the IL after injuring his big toe while making a stellar catch. Judge was having another MVP-like season before the injury, hitting .291/.404/.674 with a team-high 19 homers, 42 runs scored, 40 runs batted in, 189 wRC+, and 2.8 fWAR in 49 games. The team will look to Anthony Rizzo to pick up some of the slack, as he’s been having a great season himself. So far, Rizzo is slashing .269/.344/.444 with 11 homers, a 122 wRC+ and a 1.1 fWAR in 66 games.

Tuesday, June 13: Luis Severino vs. Max Scherzer, 7:10 p.m. on WPIX, TBS

Severino (2023): 20.1 IP, 18 K, 7 BB, 7 HR, 5.75 ERA, 7.16 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, -0.2 bWAR

Severino’s start to 2023 was delayed thanks to a lat strain, and his first two starts were pretty good. Over those two outings, he went 11 ¹⁄₃ innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits with 10 strikeouts and four walks. However, his last two starts have been a disaster, so much so that he expressed displeasure at his own performance and has many labeling him a big problem for the Yankees. Against the Dodgers, he was tattooed for seven earned runs on nine hits over four innings. Then against the White Sox, he allowed four earned runs on six hits over five innings. In each outing, he surrendered three home runs. He will look to bounce back against the Mets, a team he has performed well against in limited action. He owns a 2.75 ERA in four appearances (three starts) against the Mets.

Scherzer (2023): 53.1 IP, 58 K, 14 BB, 8 HR, 3.71 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 1.0 bWAR

It was a tale of two halves in Scherzer’s last start. Through his first three innings, he had allowed just two singles and no runs while striking out seven. Over the last 2 ²⁄₃ innings, he allowed nine hits, five earned runs, and only struck out three. That led to a much uglier line, as the veteran right-hander finished his outing with five earned runs on 11 hits, though he did strike out a season-high ten and didn’t walk a batter. It broke a stretch in which he allowed two runs or fewer in three consecutive starts. He will look to get back on track against the Yankees, a team he’s pitched well against in his career, posting a 3.67 ERA with 77 strikeouts across 11 starts.

Wednesday, June 13: Gerrit Cole vs. Justin Verlander, 7:10 p.m. on ESPN

Cole (2023): 85.2 IP, 90 K, 29 BB, 9 HR, 2.84 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 bWAR

Cole is having himself a stellar season so far for the Yankees. He is coming off back-to-back quality outings after back-to-back outings of five earned runs. In his last start, he suffered his first loss after picking up wins in his first seven decisions, although he had a solid start all things considered. Against Boston, he went six innings and allowed two earned runs on seven hits, with six strikeouts and one walk. Before that, he picked up the win against Los Angeles, as he threw six innings of one-run ball while allowing four hits and striking out five. Historically, Cole has struggled against the Mets, posting a 6.75 ERA, with 34 strikeouts over six starts against them.

Verlander (2023): 39.0 IP, 33 K, 13 BB, 7 HR, 4.85 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 0.2 bWAR

Verlander had a rough start in Atlanta. He only made it through three innings in a game where his team staked him to a 5-3 lead after he put them in a three-run hole. He finished the outing allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits. He only struck out three, and he walked a season-high four. Verlander continues to have an up-and-down year after returning from his injury, but he’ll need to be significantly better if the Mets want to climb back into the postseason race. The good news for JV is that he’s done quite well against the Yankees in his career, pitching to a 3.44 ERA with 138 strikeouts in 23 career starts against the Bronx Bombers.

Prediction: The Mets and Yankees each win one game.