Mets face West-leading Diamondbacks for three in Arizona

The Mets (38-46) head West for their final road trip of the first half as they play three with the Diamondbacks (50-35). The Mets won four of six against Arizona last year, and have won the season series every year dating back to 2018.

The Mets are coming off a much-needed series win, as they took two of three from the Giants at Citi Field. It was their first series win since they swept the Phillies at the start of June, a span of eight consecutive series. Things got off to an inauspicious start with a 5-4 loss on Friday night, which concluded a 7-19 June. The Mets held a 4-2 lead going into the eighth inning, with a Tommy Pham bomb giving them an insurance run. With David Robertson on the mound, everyone felt pretty good about the team’s chances of notching a win. Then, Robertson surrendered a three-run homer to Patrick Bailey, and that was all she wrote.

The Mets broke their three-game skid with a 4-1 win on Saturday. Justin Verlander shoved on the mound, hurling seven innings while allowing just an unearned run to pick up his third win in Orange and Blue. The Mets used a three-homer inning—the dingers came courtesy of Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor—to give their ace a lead he would not relinquish. It was, all in all, a pretty stress-free win, as the Mets looked to put their June swoon behind them.

The Mets finally broke through with a series win thanks to an 8-4 victory on Sunday Night Baseball. San Francisco struck first with a run in the third, but New York took the lead in the bottom of the frame on a Pete Alonso bases loaded walk and a Jeff McNeil two-run single. Mark Canha’s homer made it 4-1, and a Tommy Pham double made it 5-1. New York capitalized on a ton of Giants mistakes, but San Francisco got three back in the seventh against the Mets’ pen to make things interesting. New York pushed through a much-needed insurance run with a Starling Marte run-scoring single in the seventh, which gave them some breathing room. Adam Ottavino narrowly escaped a bases loaded jam in the eighth, and Alonso’s 25th homer of the season put the game away.

Polar Bear was named the team’s lone All Star yesterday, and announced during the ESPN broadcast that he would be participating in the Home Run Derby for the fourth time. Alonso has struggled since his return, but overall his power numbers have continued to impress. Overall, he is hitting .221/.316/.520 with 25 homers, 48 runs scored, and 58 runs batted in, with a 130 wRC+ and a 1.6 fWAR in 76 games.

It is possible that Nimmo and Lindor could eventually get added to the All Star team as replacements to the team. Nimmo leads the team with a 134 wRC+ and a 2.6 fWAR while hitting .279/.372/.458 in 82 games. Lindor made it to the finals of voting but lost to Atlanta’s Orlando Arcia. Lindor leads NL shortstops with 17 homers and 55 runs batted in while hitting .223/.306/.446 with a 108 wRC+ and a 2.5 fWAR in 84 games.

The Diamondbacks are coming off taking two of three from the Angels. They took the first two before dropping the finale. They currently own a three game lead in the NL West.

Arizona has three All Stars this year, each of whom are making it for the first time. Corbin Carroll, who was voted as a starting outfielder for the team, is one of the favorites for NL Rookie of the Year, hitting .289/.365/.557 with 17 homers, 60 runs, 44 runs batted in, and 24 stolen bases. He leads his club in wRC+ (146) and fWAR (3.6) in 80 games. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was also named a reserve thanks to a .270/.321/.489 slash line and 13 homers. He owns a 116 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR in 73 games. Zac Gallen was also named an All Star after finishing fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season. He leads the National League in innings pitched (111 ¹⁄₃), starts (18), and wins (10). He owns a 3.15 ERA, a 2.83 FIP, and a 1.08 WHIP for the year.

Tuesday, July 4: Kodai Senga vs. Zach Davies, 4:10 p.m. on SNY

Senga (2023): 81.2 IP, 101 K, 46 BB, 9 HR, 3.53 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 1.3 bWAR

Senga struggled in the first inning in his last start, but ended up bouncing back and hung around for five frames. In that first, he gave up two hits and a walk, and he only gave up three hits and one walk over the final four. He ended up striking out eight and has struck out 28 over his last four outings. His control remains a concern, as his 46 walks and eight wild pitches lead all NL starters.

Davies (2023): 42.2 IP, 33 K, 20 BB, 3 HR, 6.54 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.62 WHIP, -0.7 bWAR

After a pretty solid first year in Arizona, Davies has really struggled in his second go-around with the Diamondbacks. The right-hander, who missed eight weeks with a strained left oblique, has not really had a tough time of it, though he is coming off his best start of 2023. In his last outing against the Rays, he scattered two hits over seven shutout innings, while walking two and striking out three. It was not enough, however, as he settled for a no decision (in a game Arizona went on to lose). He has not earned a win in his last four starts, and has picked up the loss in three of those outings.

Wednesday, July 5: Max Scherzer vs. Tommy Henry, 9:40 p.m. on SNY

Scherzer (2023): 76.2 IP, 85 K, 18 BB, 13 HR, 3.87 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.4 bWAR

Scherzer has put together three consecutive Quality Starts after his disastrous start against the Yankees. His last time out, he went six innings and allowed two earned runs on seven hits, with two walks and nine strikeouts. Unfortunately, he surrendered a two-run homer in the sixth after five shutout innings, which deprived him of the chance to earn a win—the Mets would go on to drop the game 3-2. He has struck out 25 over 20 innings in his last three starts, and owns a 2.25 ERA in that span.

Henry (2023): 68.1 IP, 49 K, 25 BB, 10 HR, 4.08 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 0.8 bWAR

After starting the year in Triple-A, Henry got a promotion on April 24 and has been a member of Arizona’s staff ever since (with one relief outing mixed in). He got roughed up in his first two June starts, but has been on a solid run over his last three starts. The left-hander, who was picked 74th overall in 2019, has allowed four earned runs over his last 18 ¹⁄₃ innings (1.96 ERA). He has picked up wins in each of his last two starts. In his most recent outing, he went 5 ²⁄₃ innings against the Angels and was charged with one earned run on four hits, with two walks and eight strikeouts.

Thursday, July 6: Carlos Carrasco vs. Ryne Nelson, 9:40 p.m. on SNY

Carrasco (2023): 53.0 IP, 39 K, 26 BB, 12 HR, 5.94 ERA, 6.45 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, -0.3 bWAR

Carrasco had a pretty decent start his start against the Giants. He went five innings against San Francisco and allowed two earned runs on five hits, with three walks and six strikeouts. He was in line for the win before the team blew the game in the eighth inning, so he settled for a no decision. Unfortunately, a high pitch count (92 pitches over his five innings) prevented him from going deeper into this game.

Nelson (2023): 90.2 IP, 64 K, 29 BB, 11 HR, 4.67 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 0.6 bWAR

After three really impressive starts in 2022, Nelson got the call to join Arizona’s rotation in 2023. The 2019 second round pick has had mixed results so far, but is coming off two really great starts in a row. In those two outings, he’s gone 14 ¹⁄₃ innings and allowed two earned runs on six hits, with three walks and 12 strikeouts. The right-hander picked up wins in each of those starts against the Giants and the Angels.

Prediction: The Mets take two of three in the desert.