Mets host red-hot first-place Mariners for three games

On August 1, the Mariners were in fourth place in the American League West, carrying a respectable 55-52 record. At the time, Seattle trailed the then-first-place Rangers by six games with the Astros just behind Texas and the Angels just ahead of the Mariners.

Today, the Mariners share possession of first place with the Astros, a virtual tie with the Mariners at 76-57 and the Astros at 77-58. Seattle lost just five games in the entire month of August, upending their division in the process and changing the tone of the entire American League Wild Card race. If the playoffs were to start today, the AL West would have three teams in them. The AL East would only have two.

As for the Mets, they’re coming off a series in which they dropped two of three games to the Rangers. They’re in last place in the National League East, tied with the Pirates for the third-worst record in the National League, three games ahead of the second-worst Cardinals. Only the 49-84 Rockies seem like a lock to finish behind the Mets in the National League this year. This website has the Mets’ odds of landing a top-six pick in the draft, which would be protected from penalties for the Mets’ level of exceeding the luxury tax, at a little over 30%.

If you’re looking to see some former Mets playing for the Mariners in this series, your best bet is probable Dominic Leone, who the Mets traded to the Angels at the deadline and was subsequently claimed on waivers by Seattle just yesterday. Former Mets reliever Paul Sewald, who blossomed into a very good major league reliever after heading to Seattle as a free agent ahead of the 2021 season, was traded to the Diamondbacks at the deadline. And former Mets prospect Jarred Kelenic has been sidelined for weeks after breaking his foot by kicking a water cooler. He made his first rehab appearance following that injury just last night in Triple-A, serving as Tacoma’s designated hitter. If the Mariners are aggressive in bringing him back, maybe he makes it to Queens before the end of the series.

And last but not least, as has been the case multiple times this season, the Mets will have a major holiday—Labor Day in this case—off.

Friday, September 1: Kodai Senga vs. TBD, 7:10 PM on Apple TV+

Senga (2023): 136.1 IP, 164 K, 64 BB, 12 HR, 3.17 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.240 WHIP, 3.2 bWAR

A few things would have to happen for Kodai Senga to be considered a serious Cy Young contender in the National League, but he has quietly moved up to the third-best ERA in the league, trailing only Blake Snell (2.60 ERA) and Justin Steele (2.69 ERA) at the moment. If both of those pitchers were to falter in September, though, there would be a path for Senga to lead the league in ERA. That alone wouldn’t be a guarantee of winning the prestigious award, but the fact that it’s even a possibility speaks to how good Senga has been. Should he end up with that opportunity, there are a few pitchers only slightly behind him, too, and the significantly higher innings workloads of Zac Gallen, Spencer Strider, and Logan Webb would surely carry some weight in awards voting. Also, if not for Corbin Carroll’s excellent rookie season—he’s hit 23 home runs with a 136 wRC+ and stolen 41 bases—Senga might very well be the leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year.

Saturday, September 2: TBD vs. TBD, 7:10 PM on SNY

Well, this is an easy pitching matchup to preview.

Sunday, September 3: Tylor Megill vs. TBD, 1:40 PM on SNY

Megill (2023): 97.0 IP, 82 K, 47 BB, 14 HR, 5.29 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.680 WHIP, -0.3 bWAR

Now in his third season of getting major league innings, Megill owns a 5.29 ERA that’s just a shade worse than his career 4.96 ERA at the major league level. Despite having gotten off to fast starts in each of his three major league seasons, Megill has wound up in roughly the same place by the end of each one. He had a 4.52 ERA in 89.2 innings in 2021 and a 5.13 ERA in 47.1 innings in 2022. Having spent a chunk of the summer in Syracuse, Megill rejoined the Mets’ rotation in August following the trades that sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers and Justin Verlander to the Astros. Since that return, he has a 5.61 ERA and a 4.86 FIP.

Prediction: The 2023 Mets do the 2023 Mets thing and drop two of three games in the series.