The Mets welcome the Wild Card hopeful Reds

The Mets continue to have a very weird season. So far in September after taking two of three from Seattle, the Mets split a two-game set with the lowly Nationals, lost two of three to the Twins, and then took three of four from the Diamondbacks. While they are not mathematically eliminated yet, the Mets are on their way to an October at home, watching the playoffs on television.

The Reds, on the other hand, are still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. At the start of play on Friday, they are tied with the Giants and Diamondbacks for the third playoff spot in the National League, and a half game up on the Marlins before there’s a steep drop off. All four of the aforementioned clubs are 5-5 over their last ten games, and no one is emerging as the leader of this pack. They’re in for a slog for the last two weeks of the season.

The Mets are in position, after beating the D-Backs and about to play both the Reds and the Marlins (twice), to play spoiler in the Wild Card race. Could this be a secret collaboration between the Mets and J.D. Davis, Michael Conforto, and Wilmer Flores to put the Giants in the final Wild Card slot? Only time will tell.

Friday, September 15: David Peterson vs. Hunter Greene, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2023): 94.1 IP, 103 K, 42 BB, 14 HR, 5.34 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.601 WHIP, 0.3 bWAR

Since rejoining the rotation at the start of August, Peterson has been what he’s always been: a pitcher that sometimes shows promise but doesn’t throw enough innings and often melts down. Peterson looked okay in his quality start against the Twins on Saturday, going six innings, giving up three earned runs while striking out eight.

Greene (2023): 91.1 IP, 123 K, 44 BB, 14 HR, 4.43 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.434 WHIP, 1.1 bWAR

Greene is coming off of back to back wins in starts where he didn’t give up an earned run, against the Cardinals and Giants. This season, he’s been very similar, statistically, to his opponent tonight, without the demotions/bullpen stints.

Saturday, September 16: Tylor Megill vs. Andrew Abbott, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Megill (2023): 107.1 IP, 90 K, 53 BB, 16 HR, 5.03 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 1.640 WHIP, 0.1 bWAR

Megill’s season has been a slightly better, right-handed version of Peterson’s, though his results as of late have been a little stronger and he’s sticking around longer in games. With the state of the bullpen less than ideal, that’s made him a more valuable starter. His last start against the Twins was a good one, going five with no earned runs, though he did allow four to walk against just two hits and two strikeouts.

Abbott (2023): 99.0 IP, 107 K, 39 BB, 14 HR, 3.64 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, 2.8 bWAR

The rookie left-hander is having a solid first year in the big leagues. He’s hit a bit of a rough skid since mid-August, when his ERA has jumped by over half a run due to a trio of short outings and his most recent game against the Cardinals where they lit him up for six earned runs.

Sunday, September 17: José Quintana vs. Brandon Williamson, 1:40 PM EDT on WPIX

Quintana (2023): 59.0 IP, 43 K, 23 BB, 1 HR, 3.05 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.271 WHIP, 1.8 bWAR

Quintana has been quietly quite good since coming off the IL on July 20th. In just ten starts he’s accumulated almost two bWAR, and he’s had no starts of less than five innings pitched. His strikeouts are down compared to his career peaks, but he’s been a very solid mid-rotation starter for the Mets. The bullpen coughed up his Monday night start against the Diamondbacks where he was, again, solid, throwing five innings of two-run ball.

Williamson (2023): 102.2 IP, 91 K, 35 BB, 16 HR, 4.47 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.276 WHIP, 1.3 bWAR

Another rookie lefty? In this economy? Believe it. Williamson hasn’t been as effective as Abbott and, like Abbott, has felt the long season start to weigh on his performance, with his last two starts being less than stellar, and the team losing all but two of his starts since the start of August.

Prediction: The Reds need to win in order to get back into playoff position. The Mets have been enjoying their role as spoiler as of late, but will struggle against the lefties. Reds will take two of three.