Amazin’ Avenue’s bold predictions for the Mets’ 2024 season

Allison McCague: Francisco Alvarez will be the best catcher in the National League

In his rookie season last year, Francisco Alvarez was fifth among National League catchers in fWAR. A big part of Alvarez’s success in his first big league season was what he contributed defensively. He had the fourth-highest framing value in all of baseball, according to Statcast. There is no reason to believe that incredible defensive value he worked so hard to build is going anywhere in 2024 and we’ve already seen him gun down several runners trying to steal this spring in very impressive fashion. What will rocket him to the top of the leaderboard in his position will be sustaining the production at the plate he showed flashes of last season over the course of a full big league season. A 97 wRC+ and 25 home runs is certainly nothing to sneeze at for a 21-year-old catcher, but his success at the plate came in streaks. Alvarez worked hard this offseason on strength and conditioning and with his rookie year under his belt, it’s easy to envision him being better equipped to handle the wear and tear of a full big league season in his sophomore year. It’s hard to put any stock in spring training at-bats, but Alvarez has looked good with the bat this spring, going deep three times and putting up a 111 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances. I think he will be even better in the regular season and is primed for a monster year.

Linda Surovich: Francisco Alvarez will hit 42 HR, setting a new club record for the position

I am currently on a win streak when it comes to bold predictions. Last season I predicted Kodai Senga would lead the team in strikeouts and in the previous year I predicted that Edwin Diaz would be the best closer in baseball, both of which came true. Unfortunately in 2021 I thought Francisco Lindor would win the MVP which sadly did not happen so I am 2-1 in the last three seasons. I would like to keep my win streak going so after careful consideration I am predicting Francisco Alvarez will hit 42 home runs to become the new record holder for most home runs by a Mets catcher in a single season. Alvarez’s power has already been proven at the major league level. In 2023, his 25 blasts in his first full season in the majors place him eighth on the franchise list. Todd Hundley set the record in 1996, and while Mike Piazza came close, he could never overtake that mark. Alvarez has the confidence and the swagger to be the one to finally do it. When asked earlier this spring, he predicted 41 for himself but for the purposes of this prediction he needs to get to 42. I believe in you Francisco.

Michael Drago: The Mets’ bullpen will be good (for real this time)

First, a confession: I didn’t fully believe the prediction I made this time last year. But we were asked to be bold, and in the wake of Edwin Díaz’s season-ending injury, I chose to be optimistic rather than dwell in misery. Hence, I predicted that the Mets’ bullpen would not only survive Díaz’s absence, but would in fact thrive despite the loss of their star closer.

That, uhh, did not happen. Now, heading into 2024, Díaz’s return is certainly one reason to have some hope for the relief corps this year. Still, outside of him, it’s not exactly a star-studded cast of characters in the bullpen: it’s largely a group of unsexy names - many of whom were a part of last year’s underperforming bunch - with some aging veterans and some unproven commodities that are being asked to bridge the gap to the ninth inning. Thus, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see another middling performance out of the relief corps in 2024.

Still, I’m going to once again predict that the Mets’ bullpen will be a surprisingly strong group this year relative to the rest of the league. Edwin Díaz will be as good as he was pre-injury. Veteran arms like Brooks Raley, Jake Diekman, and Michael Tonkin will provide some stability that was largely lacking last year. An under-the-radar arm like Yohan Ramírez will turn out to be a solid piece. Nate Lavender will come up early on in the season and immediately establish himself as a legitimate big league pitcher. And maybe - if we wanna get really crazy - Carlos Mendoza will be the oh so rare manager who actually knows how to utilize his relievers effectively. All of these factors will lead the Mets to having a top-five bullpen in the National League.

Do I actually believe this bullpen optimism this time around? Well, I’ll say this: the fact that this group of relievers was compiled by David Stearns - someone who has a track record of compiling strong bullpens on a budget - does provide a reason for optimism that didn’t exist this time last year. And hey, if I keep on making this prediction, eventually it has to come true, right?

Brian Salvatore: The rotation will be good

Aside from Kodai Senga, there is no one in the Met’s rotation that screams “All-Star.” But despite having the killer duos of deGrom and Scherzer or Scherzer and Verlander that Mets fans have been treated to over the past few years, this rotation has a chance to be good. Notice I didn’t say great, I said good. And, if the offense and bullpen hold up their part of the bargain, that should be enough.

José Quintana is on a late-career surge right now, and the lefty seems poised to continue his trend of keeping the ball in the park and keeping the walks down. Sean Manaea has looked great all spring, especially in the final Grapefruit League game on Monday against the Yankees, where his slider was as sharp as I’ve ever seen it. Jody Houser is a perfectly cromulent back of the rotation starter, and allows guys like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchessi to be effective depth. And, if Luis Severino can be anything other than trash, that move is going to look very, very smart.

None of this is exactly a hot take when taken individually, but this rotation on paper in November, especially with Senga starting the season on the IL, would’ve looked like a disaster. And yet, here we are, and I’m feeling good about them. We’ll see.

Chris McShane: Jeff McNeil will reclaim the National League batting title

It’s an even-numbered year, which has been a great thing for McNeil over the course of his major league career. In all three of his previous even-numbered-year seasons, McNeil hit well over .300, and in 2022, his .326 average was the best in the National League. Sure, there was one great odd-numbered-year in there in 2019, but even accounting for that, the evens clearly win this battle. Does this actually make any sense? No. But hey, why not? McNeil’s overall production over the past three seasons makes his great 2022 look like the outlier, but he is certainly capable of bouncing back, and if he does, it could make for a fun battle with Luis Arraez.

Vas Drimalitis: The Mets’ starting pitching will be a strength, not a liability

As far as bold predictions go, this one is fairly tame, but as spring has progressed, I’ve felt more comfortable with the state of the rotation, even with the Kodai Senga injury. The Mets don’t have the benefit of a true ace heading into the 2024 campaign, like they have with Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander in previous seasons, and maybe that’s not the worst thing in the world. One thing has become abundantly clear this winter: Teams are veering away from long-term deals on starters, and I think that trend will continue going forward. With that said, I think the strategy the Mets employed this winter—going after veteran pitchers with past success on short-term deals—could serve them well for 2024.

For starters, I believe Luis Severino will lead the team in ERA and will return to form (maybe not quite what he was in his prime, but something closer to his peak years than we’ve seen in quite some time). I also think a lot of people are overlooking José Quintana, who posted a very respectable 3.57 ERA for the Mets last year. Sean Manaea could be a potentially shrewd find for the team as well, and Adrian Houser is a serviceable backend option. The two biggest factors are Senga’s health and Tylor Megill’s American Spork. If Megill has finally unlocked something that will allow him to take the next step in his career, and if Senga truly is back by early May, the rotation could be in prime position to surprise some people. There won’t be anyone garnering Cy Young support on this staff, but there’s enough here to give the team a respectable rotation that will keep them in games, and sometimes that’s all you need to compete in this league. It may not be sexy, but with the way starting pitching has been trending lately, it could be a solid rotation.

Lukas Vlahos: The Mets will win 88+ games

Currently, the Mets are projected to be a about a .500 team. Fangraphs has them at 81 wins, PECOTA at 83.5, and the increasingly present gambling overlords have the win total O/U set at either 80.5 or 81.5. Not crazy numbers on the surface; the Mets were bad last year, did not make any marquee additions, and lost their presumptive ace in Spring Training. I think this is too low, and my bold prediction is that the Mets will actually win 88+ games.

This is driven in part by my optimism about some of those aforementioned additions, and I think all of Harrison Bader, Sean Manaea, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino are undersold by current projections (for understandable reasons). More importantly though, this is a bet on the Mets’ young players.

I’m betting that Brett Baty’s stated goal of lifting the ball in the air will finally click and his latent offensive skills will blossom. I believe that Drew Gilbert will supplant Starling Marte in the outfield in relatively short order and provide an immediate upgrade. Those two should combine to cover the only potential weak spots in the lineup. On the mound, Christian Scott looks like he might just be a #2 starter, and the Mets - shockingly - have one of the deepest groups of arms in Triple-A behind him. The rotation might lack high-end talent, but the group as a whole should be one of the better groups in baseball.

Put that all together and you have a very complete roster. There’s no superstar and the lineup might still wind up short one big bopper, but it’s difficult to find any holes. That’s a roster construction that succeeds more often than not in the modern game, and I’m willing to bet the Mets far exceed their expected win total as a result.