Well-rested Mets set to host Braves for three

The Mets (18-18) saw their series finale in St. Louis rained out on Wednesday amid severe weather, and with that, the team wound up with two full days off ahead of its three-game series against the Braves (22-12) at Citi Field this weekend.

That postponed game against the Cardinals ended the Mets’ road trip at five games, during which they went 2-3. Having been swept by the Rays in a three-game series last weekend, the Mets bounced back with a pair of wins over the Cardinals that got them back to .500. That’s where the team has been hovering for weeks now, but that alone is enough to be in the thick of the National League Wild Card mix, albeit among a slew of other teams.

Over their past ten games, the Braves are just 4-6, a rare period of relative struggle for a team that’s widely expected to win the National League East. It’s worth noting that Ronald Acuña Jr. has really started to hit lately after struggling for a few weeks to begin the season.

Former Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud has put up great numbers as Atlanta’s primary catcher while Sean Murphy is on the injured list, but he’s been slumping recently. And former Mets prospect Jarred Kelenic has been hitting well over that same span, but that’s bumped him up to just a 106 wRC+ on the season.

These teams met in Atlanta in April, and the Mets wound up winning two of three games and getting a series win—with one of the four originally scheduled games having been rained out and postponed until late September.

Friday, May 10: Jose Quintana vs. Charlie Morton, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Quintana (2024): 36.1 IP, 25 K, 16 BB, 3 HR, 5.20 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 134 ERA-

Coming off an excellent eight-inning start against the Cardinals last weekend, Quintana had an absolutely dreadful start against the Rays last weekend. He went just 2.2 innings and gave up eight runs on ten hits, raising his ERA on the season from 3.48 to 5.20.

Morton (2024): 36.0 IP, 33 K, 13 BB, 3 HR, 3.50 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 85 ERA-

At the age of 40, Morton has been roughly the same pitcher that he was in 2023 in terms of main rate stats. His fastball is still averaging more than 94 miles per hour, though his strikeout rate has dipped a bit compared to where it had been last year and more so from where it was in 2022. Still, he’d appear to be the better starter in this game on paper.

Saturday, May 11: Christian Scott vs. Max Fried, 4:10 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2024): 6.2 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 0 HR, 1.35 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 35 ERA-

Scott’s major league debut couldn’t have gone much better. After struggling a bit in the first inning, the 24-year-old settled in incredibly well and looked great through the remainder of his start against the Rays—one of the few major bright sides of that series.

Fried (2024): 38.1 IP, 32 K, 14 BB, 4 HR, 4.23 ERA ERA, 4.10 FIP, 102 ERA-

While his first couple of starts this season were disastrous, Fried righted the ship, and from this third start through his most recent one, he has a 2.16 ERA. Those two starts still count, of course, but Fried’s track record and recent performance suggest that he’s better than his overall 2024 stats would suggest at the moment.

Sunday, May 12: Luis Severino vs. Bryce Elder, 7:10 PM EDT on ESPN

Severino (2024): 40.0 IP, 37 K, 17 BB, 2 HR, 2.93 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 75 ERA-

In his start against the Rays, Severino limited the damage to four runs in his five innings of work despite issuing six walks along the way. It was one of just two starts of his with the Mets that didn’t go all that well, and he had put up a 1.80 ERA over the five starts that came before it.

Elder (2024): 15.1 IP, 10 K, 8 BB, 3 HR, 5.28 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 128 ERA-

After starting the season in Triple-A, Elder found himself back in Atlanta’s major league rotation. His first start after returning was a good one—with the caveat that it came against the lowly Marlins. And in his second start, he fared well enough, holding the Guardians to two runs in 5.1 innings. But the Dodgers tattooed him to the tune of seven runs in just 3.1 innings his last time out. In 174.2 innings at the major league level last year, Elder had a 3.81 ERA and a 4.42 FIP.