Amazin' Avenue - Mets set to host Giants in National League Wild Card gameLove the Metshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/46695/amazinavenue-fave.png2016-10-05T17:06:52-04:00http://www.amazinavenue.com/rss/stream/129397532016-10-05T17:06:52-04:002016-10-05T17:06:52-04:00Mets announce lineup for Wild Card game vs. Giants
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<img alt="MLB: New York Mets Workout" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hYGb_w-pwLX_n2PqwDq4X_-8d0w=/0x0:2641x1761/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51212163/usa-today-9588931.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The Record-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>James Loney is starting.</p> <p id="E1E3Ar">The Mets have announced their lineup for tonight’s Wild Card matchup with the Giants at Citi Field. We already knew it was a superstar starting pitcher showdown between Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner, but now we know who will be on the field in support of Syndergaard.</p>
<p id="1kBWL8">Jose Reyes – 3B<br>Asdrubal Cabrera – SS<br>Yoenis Cespedes – LF<br>Curtis Granderson – CF<br>T.J. Rivera – 2B<br>Jay Bruce – RF<br>Rene Rivera – C<br>James Loney – 1B<br>Noah Syndergaard – RHP</p>
<p id="b3Lz4M">If you had “T.J. Rivera will bat fifth in a playoff game” in the preseason prediction pool, you should take that act on the road because you can predict the future. Rivera, who has hit well in limited action with the Mets, probably would have hit lower in the lineup if the Mets weren’t facing such a formidable left-hander in Bumgarner. As constructed, the lineup puts Rivera’s right-handed bat between Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, who both hit from the left side.</p>
<p id="0L6Sn9">Behind the dish, Travis d’Arnaud certainly has more upside than Rene Rivera, but Rivera is in there to help Syndergaard protect against the running game.</p>
<p id="BmAJ51">James Loney, who had been a black hole in the lineup for months until the final series against the Phillies, was chosen over Lucas Duda for a couple of reasons, according to manager Terry Collins. <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/783767107196579842">The first</a> was that Collins thought it’d be “an awful big challenge” for Duda to face Bumgarner with Duda having taken very few reps at the plate since returning from the disabled list. One could reasonably argue that it’d be an awful big challenge for a bad hitter like Loney to face <em>anyone</em>, but we’ll leave that alone. </p>
<p id="X1R4KW">Collins <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/783766910546612224">also suggested</a> that Loney’s defense helped tip the scales in his favor. Whether Loney is a good defender at first or a bad, awkward one we’ll leave to to the readers to decide. At least he’s batting eighth.</p>
<p id="FqbTU2">Tonight’s game begins at 8:09 PM.</p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13178818/mets-lineup-wild-card-game-vs-giantsEric Simon2016-10-05T13:05:03-04:002016-10-05T13:05:03-04:00It all comes down to this
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<img alt="Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/d9qLpHcv56fSw1--Y9Vu9TQWaMg=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51207803/596730738.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The National League Wild Card game will feature two of the best pitchers that the circuit has to offer.</p> <p id="o9HiRW">Welcome back to October, Mets fans! Technically we’ve already seen New York play two games in October this season, but with all the scoreboard watching and pennant racing, those felt a lot like September baseball. Now it’s time to really get down to business with a one-game, winner-take-all Wild Card round against the San Francisco Giants.</p>
<p id="AUxB3r">The last time the Mets and Giants met in the postseason, it was the year 2000 and New York was fighting to get back to the National League Championship Series. Although the Mets lost Game 1 of that Division Series in San Francisco and blew a three-run, ninth-inning lead in Game 2, they escaped the Bay Area with the series tied and finished their opponents off at Shea Stadium thanks to a walk-off home run by Benny Agbayani and some of the best pitching we ever saw from Bobby Jones.</p>
<p id="spExhV">The players, managers, and storylines are all different this time around, but the Mets still plan on taking advantage of their home ballpark, where they have gone 44-37 this year. That’s just one game better than their record away from Citi Field, but hopefully New York will have some road games coming up as well.</p>
<h4 id="Lmibah">Mets offense</h4>
<p id="uxMIxb">With San Francisco’s best pitcher on the mound, the game plan for Terry Collins should be the same as it has been all season: Take advantage of the starter’s mistakes with a home run or two, and then ride your own starter to victory. Like everything in this beautiful game, that’s easier said than done, especially when the Giants will be deploying Madison Bumgarner, a dominant left-handed starter who is among the best hurlers in the game.</p>
<p id="9a9woO">The matchup seems to favor San Francisco because the Mets get a lot of their power from left-handed hitting. However, it’s very doubtful that Collins will adjust the starting lineup very much. Juan Lagares was the only right-handed hitting outfielder to make the <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13173742/mets-wild-card-roster-loney-duda-smoker-edgin">Wild Card roster</a>, and he has only made five plate appearances since returning to the Mets from the disabled list in late September.</p>
<p id="Jkajyk">Even if we were more confident in Lagares’s ability to swing the bat, it’s likely that the Mets would stick with Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce anyway, since both have been so hot lately. Granderson was a riding a wave of eight hits in three games before Sunday’s virtually meaningless contest in Philadelphia, while Bruce has transformed from a nearly useless entity into New York’s secret weapon during his current eight-game hitting streak.</p>
<p id="SPMsr9">None of that means that the dynamic duo will necessarily come through against Bumgarner, but that’s why the Mets will have two switch-hitters as well as Yoenis Cespedes in the first three spots of the batting order.</p>
<p id="u1zvVX">If the Mets do need a right-handed pinch-hitter at some point, the first bat off the eight-man bench could be Eric Campbell. Despite the utility man’s .173 batting average in 88 plate appearances this year, he has come up big as substitute lately. Campbell famously drove in a run on September 20 when Collins had him hit for an ice-cold Bruce. Three days later, he came through with another RBI single when used in place of Michael Conforto.</p>
<div id="qdxJU0"><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" width="400" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1198375083&topic_id=73955164&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></div>
<p id="xR9OvJ">Another lefty that the Mets might need a pinch-hitter for is James Loney, as he’ll be starting at first base on Wednesday night with Lucas Duda left <a href="https://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets/status/783678887775571968">off the roster</a>. It might be true that Loney has been quite lousy after the All-Star break (.656 OPS), but he has come through big lately with home runs that helped New York pull off key victories in Miami and Philadelphia. Hopefully one of 2016’s most unlikely heroes will pull another rabbit out of the hat in the Wild Card game.</p>
<h4 id="PKyjJk">Giants offense</h4>
<p id="Li3m2a">The Mets’ hot hitters do not have the platoon advantage on Bumgarner, but the opposite is true for the Giants and Noah Syndergaard. Left-handed first baseman Brandon Belt in particular has been hot with three multiple-hit games in his last six and a .938 OPS in September. He’s been one of the guys responsible for waking the Giants up after they looked like they were sleepwalking through late July and all of August.</p>
<p id="bDLysG">Another guy who is tremendously important to San Francisco’s offense is Brandon Crawford, who busted out with nine hits in a three-game stretch from September 27 to September 30. Like Belt, the shortstop is also a left-handed hitter who has been one of San Francisco’s most consistent offensive threats all season. Neither of those players is likely to steal a base at any given moment (although against Syndergaard you never know), but former Mets outfielder Angel Pagan might do just that. The shining star of Puerto Rico has 12 hits in his last eight games and has swiped 15 bags in 19 tries this year. Plus, the switch-hitter has been slightly stronger as a left-handed batter in 2016.</p>
<p id="ZYLIvq">Someone who won’t be stealing any bases on Wednesday is Eduardo Nunez, who was left off of the <a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2016/10/5/13173260/sf-giants-wild-card-game-roster">Wild Card roster</a> due to a hamstring injury. Instead, Conor Gillaspie will man the hot corner for San Francisco, but that’s not necessarily great new for the Mets. The Wichita State alumnus and former White Sox infielder is running with a five-game hitting streak since he started getting regular playing time on September 27.</p>
<p id="PIJUEZ">All that’s to say, the Giants may have fallen apart in the second half of the season, but they’re still plenty dangerous, even if we don’t mention obvious threats like Buster Posey and Hunter Pence. Both stars may very well be major factors in the winner-take-all affair.</p>
<h4 id="glBG6A">Probable pitchers</h4>
<h4 id="JXxo33">Madison Bumgarner</h4>
<p id="61JmHG"><b>Important stats:</b> 226.2 IP, 251 K, 54 BB, 26 HR, 2.74 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.02 WHIP</p>
<p id="FP5XVM"><b>Favorite pitches:</b> four-seam fastball (91 mph), slider (87 mph), curveball (75 mph), two-seam fastball (91 mph)</p>
<div id="UO49a2"><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" width="400" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=646455283&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></div>
<p id="3S5JAu">In six career starts against the Mets, Bumgarner has pitched very well with a 3.29 ERA, 46 strikeouts, and 14 walks. The good news is that much of that action was against Mets lineups that looked <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/4/13169620/mets-madison-bumgarner-history-splits-giants">very different</a> than this Mets lineup. If you narrow the sample down to 2016, Bumgarner has pitched six innings of scoreless ball at Citi Field and a clunker at AT&T Park in which he allowed a grand slam to Justin Ruggiano before the Giants rallied back for a 10-7 victory. In other words, no current Mets player has driven in a run against Bumgarner this season, except for Jay Bruce, who homered off of him back when the slugger was still a mere trade rumor on July 27.</p>
<p id="Fv1SNA"><a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13156102/mets-madison-bumgarner-wild-card">Check out</a> the story Chris McShane just wrote for a more detailed scouting report.</p>
<h4 id="fqHwwg">Noah Syndergaard</h4>
<p id="EQmWE9"><b>Important stats:</b> 183.2 IP, 218 K, 43 BB, 11 HR, 2.60 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 1.15 WHIP</p>
<p id="SaEIr8"><b>Favorite pitches:</b> four-seam fastball (98 mph), sinker (98 mph), slider (91 mph), changeup (90 mph)</p>
<div id="DxfxbC"><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" width="400" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1079945083&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></div>
<p id="btbcTR">Like Bumgarner, Syndergaard has faced Wednesday's opponent twice already this season. Back on May 1, he allowed four runs in five-and-two-thirds innings at Citi Field against the Giants in a 6-1 defeat. Pence did most of the damage with a two-run home run and an RBI single. However, Thor would have his vengeance on August 21 when he pitched eight scoreless frames in San Francisco to lead New York to a 2-0 win. With the Mets having dropped two games below .500 just two nights before, you can argue that the great outing helped turn the campaign around.</p>
<h4 id="z1neTq">Bullpens</h4>
<p id="2KFfWN">The spotlight will be on both managers in this game if it’s close entering the final three innings. That’s because on Tuesday night Baltimore skipper Buck Showalter decided to use <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/10/5/13170994/zach-britton-orioles-buck-showalter">someone besides his best relief pitcher</a> during the game’s deciding moments. If the same fate befalls one of the managers in this game, my money would be on Bruce Bochy. It’s not that he’s a worse manager than Terry Collins — I think most baseball fans would say he’s better — it’s that when playing on the road some managers have a hard time realizing that it’s not always a good idea to save your best reliever for a save situation that might never come.</p>
<p id="YI6Y1v">Bochy has also had a shaky bullpen this year. Just recently he was forced to remove Santiago Casilla from the closer’s role after the 36-year-old veteran blew three saves in September with a 5.87 ERA for the month. Sergio Romo, who last served as San Francisco’s closer in 2014, is back in the role after pitching consistently since coming off the DL (elbow strain) in early July. The other guys we’re most likely to see tonight are lefty Will Smith, who was acquired from the Brewers at the trade deadline and hasn’t allowed a run since August 18 against the Mets, and the pair of Hunter Strickland and Derek Law. While Smith should be brought in to counter any left-handed pinch-hitters that the Mets bring out, Strickland and Law are Bochy’s most reliable right-handed setup men.</p>
<p id="WGxdDf">Although the Giants have gone with three lefties on their Wild Card roster, the Mets have opted for only two, those being Jerry Blevins and Josh Edgin. That means Josh Smoker gets left out even though he worked more innings down the stretch than Edgin did. With neither of those guys being particularly reliable, New York went with the guy with the most big league experience, but fans will be hoping to avoid both of them. Ideally, Collins will get six or seven good innings out of Syndergaard and only have to turn to Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to close out the game, perhaps with some Blevins, Fernando Salas, and Hansel Robles mixed in.</p>
<p id="v91BkE"><b>Prediction:</b> Mets win.</p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13173132/new-york-mets-san-francisco-giants-wild-card-game-probable-pitchers-preview-noah-syndergaardAaron Yorke2016-10-05T12:09:34-04:002016-10-05T12:09:34-04:00Giants announce Wild Card roster
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<img alt="MLB: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iG5QSTHSMjdDDoIAh8u-XVoib2M=/0x0:2885x1923/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51206763/usa-today-9554628.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Base-stealing threat Eduardo Nunez is conspicuously absent.</p> <p id="mPrVUX">The Giants have released their Wild Card roster for tonight’s game, featuring 11 pitchers and 14 position players. Bruce Bochy is famous for bullpen maneuvering, and compared with the <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13173742/mets-wild-card-roster-loney-duda-smoker-edgin">Mets’ nine pitchers</a> it appears he’s prepared to make many mound trips in the game if necessary. </p>
<p id="2z2epn">Here is the full roster:</p>
<h3 id="E4RpZ1">Pitchers</h3>
<ul id="v8sBJv">
<li>Madison Bumgarner</li>
<li id="XT7Sre">Santiago Casilla</li>
<li id="cYu7VL">Johnny Cueto</li>
<li id="EpT2PJ">George Kontos</li>
<li id="wdgG4w">Derek Law</li>
<li id="wjiiz7">Javier Lopez</li>
<li id="ImyjOr">Steven Okert</li>
<li id="dopmxu">Sergio Romo</li>
<li id="QapwaB">Jeff Samardzija</li>
<li id="flYSab">Will Smith</li>
<li id="lYCkhs">Hunter Strickland</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="oEMow5">Catchers</h3>
<ul id="q5DxiG">
<li>Trevor Brown</li>
<li id="4eHJMH">Buster Posey</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="0bE2M3">Infielders</h3>
<ul id="UJ9cW6">
<li>Ehire Adrianza</li>
<li id="Miafb1">Brandon Belt</li>
<li id="kOFeE3">Brandon Crawford</li>
<li id="qRLYmk">Connor Gillaspie</li>
<li id="cGTcJY">Joe Panik</li>
<li id="rAbK9u">Kelby Tomlinson</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="mgJNnw">Outfielders</h3>
<ul id="rMCBjl">
<li>Gregor Blanco</li>
<li id="IiQR4w">Gorkys Hernandez</li>
<li id="RAU0cp">Angel Pagan</li>
<li id="JE63o2">Jarrett Parker</li>
<li id="CfsQcO">Hunter Pence</li>
<li id="dzHxpd">Denard Span</li>
</ul>
<p id="UTOMXt">Likely coming as a relief to Noah Syndergaard and Rene Rivera, third baseman Eduardo Nunez will not play in Wednesday’s game. Nunez had been dealing with a strained hamstring and stole 40 bases this season with the Twins and Giants, good for fifth-most in baseball. Limiting stolen bases has been a problem for Syndergaard all season long, as he has allowed 48 runners to steal in 57 chances this season. Angel Pagan and Denard Span are the only two other Giants with at least 10 steals—they have 15 and 12, respectively. </p>
<p id="W3Y2lU">San Francisco also elected to leave off Joe Nathan, Jake Peavy, and Matt Cain in favor of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Given the Giants’ late-season bullpen struggles, these moves had been expected. </p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13174132/giants-wild-card-roster-metsMax Gelman2016-10-05T11:15:30-04:002016-10-05T11:15:30-04:00Mets announce Wild Card roster
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<img alt="MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7ITBKNJsKGKAXA3k4fD9ALUjI6s=/0x0:5184x3456/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51205549/usa-today-9562266.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Lucas Duda is not on the roster tonight.</p> <p id="7c2n03">The Mets have announced their roster for tonight’s win-or-go-home Wild Cad contest. It’s important to remember that this roster is only for the Wild Card game, and if the Mets advance to the NLDS, they’ll create a separate roster for that series.</p>
<h3 id="dPDBO1">Pitchers</h3>
<ul>
<li id="oXfax7">Jerry Blevins</li>
<li id="m4eSsX">Bartolo Colon</li>
<li id="idlhfy">Josh Edgin</li>
<li id="TRQQna">Jeurys Familia</li>
<li id="jlW9VS">Robert Gsellman</li>
<li id="pnkuT4">Addison Reed</li>
<li id="4clcRJ">Hansel Robles</li>
<li id="DAMuBe">Fernando Salas</li>
<li id="azZWSA">Noah Syndergaard</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="Snw91a">Catchers</h3>
<ul id="JBawxu">
<li>Travis d’Arnaud</li>
<li id="MlkZBm">Kevin Plawecki</li>
<li id="qo9A4m">Rene Rivera</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="bXKaAk">Infielders</h3>
<ul id="VLOYLp">
<li>Asdrubal Cabrera</li>
<li id="0UaOgD">Eric Campebll</li>
<li id="gMHDTe">Kelly Johnson</li>
<li id="NXClkL">Ty Kelly</li>
<li id="WVS6aA">James Loney</li>
<li id="Qj1u0a">Jose Reyes</li>
<li id="CCGzyu">T.J. Rivera</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="M9XRtq">Outfielders</h3>
<ul id="nKtz8B">
<li>Jay Bruce</li>
<li id="TurP57">Yoenis Cespedes</li>
<li id="0gUGTn">Michael Conforto</li>
<li id="o1stYQ">Alejandro De Aza</li>
<li id="AbZrCU">Curtis Granderson</li>
<li id="qrwvw3">Juan Lagares</li>
</ul>
<p id="ELMqPA">This roster includes nine pitchers and sixteen position players, giving the Mets flexibility for pinch-hitting and defensive substitutions but not a lot of pitching insurance if the game goes into extra innings. The first thing that immediately jumps out is that Lucas Duda is not on the roster. New York had been deliberating earlier this week whether or not to start a <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/3/13147652/mets-lefty-first-baseman-wild-card-lucas-duda-james-loney">“left-handed first baseman,”</a> though the team never specified which one. Now, it appears as though James Loney will get the start at first base. The only other options would be Eric Campbell or Ty Kelly, but their bats are not as strong as Loney’s. </p>
<p id="Q7S2Wk">Next, Josh Edgin is on the roster over Josh Smoker as the second left-handed reliever out of the bullpen. Even though Smoker had seemingly been used more frequently in high-leverage situations, this isn’t such a huge deal as lefties were 9-for-25 with two home runs against him this season. Additionally, if everything goes according to plan, the Mets won’t be using more than Blevins, Salas, Reed, and Familia out of the bullpen. </p>
<p id="hsu3Xt">Lastly, Robert Gsellman is on the roster over Seth Lugo. The Mets had discussed adding one of either Gsellman or Lugo to their roster, and, should they advance, are even considering <a href="http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0575086081175720335-4">starting Gsellman in Game 1 of the NLDS. </a> Gsellman would likely only pitch in an emergency, however.</p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13173742/mets-wild-card-roster-loney-duda-smoker-edginMax Gelman2016-10-05T09:05:09-04:002016-10-05T09:05:09-04:00Beating Madison Bumgarner
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<img alt="MLB: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FF4Mw9TfhxJqWrTw0xV20VjscJk=/875x75:2888x1417/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51202321/usa-today-9277102.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Mets are facing a pitcher who’s well known for his postseason success, but let’s see how they might go about defeating him.</p> <p id="W4GFEU">Tonight, the Mets host the National League Wild Card game at Citi Field. Considering how things went over the course of the season and the players that were lost to injury along the way, it’s pretty remarkable. And despite having three of their ace-caliber starting pitchers undergo season-ending surgeries, they have the fourth—Noah Syndergaard—lined up to start the game on plenty of rest. There’s just one thing that’s not ideal about the game: Mets hitters have to face Madison Bumgarner.</p>
<p id="aGL8wA">If you aren’t already familiar with these numbers by now, you’ll probably read or hear them at least once more today: Bumgarner has a 1.80 ERA with 46 strikeouts and 14 walks in 40.0 innings spanning six starts against the Mets in his career. In the postseason, he has a 2.14 ERA and 3.05 FIP in fourteen career appearances, twelve of which have been starts. In the regular season, he’s thrown at least 200 innings every year since 2011, and he’s had an ERA under 3.00 every year since 2013. It’s worth pointing out that Bumgarner plays his home games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but there’s no doubt that he’s very good at his craft.</p>
<p id="etI1ed">It’s also worth pointing out that Bumgarner racked up a big chunk of his dominant numbers against the Mets a while ago. Four of the six starts took place <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/4/13169620/mets-madison-bumgarner-history-splits-giants">before the 2015 season</a>. The other two took place this year, one apiece in New York and San Francisco. The Mets got to him for the first time in the latter, which took late in late August, just before the Mets went on a tear that won them their spot in the postseason. </p>
<p id="IINxmH">So how do the Mets go about beating him now? Well, let’s start by checking in with <a href="https://twitter.com/mccoveychron?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Grant Brisbee</a>, who’s seen a whole lot more of Bumgarner than we have over the past several years.</p>
<blockquote id="1bOq2m">
<p>It's a cliché, but Bumgarner is better at beating himself than any team possibly could be. Because when he's mechanically sound, and his command is on point, he murders lefties with breaking balls and hard stuff up, and he murders righties with a hybrid slider/cutter that bores in on the hands. If they hit it, it goes foul, at best. </p>
<p>Cespedes might have the bat speed to mess with that, even if Bumgarner is going well. But the biggest problem with Bumgarner is when he catches too much of the plate. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, so he's going to thrive when he's making hitters guess when it's too late. </p>
<p>I guess that applies to every pitcher, but Bumgarner is one of the few who can actually execute that kind of hyper-fine command when he's right, so it's almost weirder when he can't. </p>
</blockquote>
<p id="Fy1TGo">Before we delve into Bumgarner beating himself, let’s take a quick look at Bumgarner’s tendencies. As Grant mentions, he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, and while he’s never been a flamethrower, his velocity was lower this year than in any of his previous full major league seasons.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/c1AKD5quIm4o9RqU_1Lf6RXkSg4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7220901/bumgarner-velocity-year-brooks.png">
<cite><a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=518516&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=10/04/2016">Brooks Baseball</a></cite>
</figure>
<p id="oXRtkC">There are five pitches in the mix, officially, but Bumgarner throws three of them—the four-seam fastball, cutter, and regular curve—the grand majority of the time. His usage this year is pretty much in line with what he’s thrown over the past couple of seasons. Here’s the 2016 breakdown, with average velocity included:</p>
<ul id="GBWlBQ">
<li>Four-seam fastball: 48.2%, 91.7 mph</li>
<li id="oR1m7V">Cutter: 33.4%, 87.6 mph</li>
<li id="mq4Ri4">Curveball: 15.1%, 75.5 mph</li>
<li id="1ywe1w">Changeup: 3.3%, 84.1 mph</li>
<li id="TPAFYz">Slow curve: 0.1%, 70.1 mph</li>
</ul>
<p id="7VR9a8">To illustrate Grant’s point, here’s where Bumgarner threw his four-seam fastball against left-handed hitters this season. All of these zone profiles are from the catcher’s point of view.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ur0YbEnD6babUVt9ggn-lDhlax0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7220955/bumgarner-lhh-four-seam-usage-2016-brooks.png">
<cite><a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=518516&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=year&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=L">Brooks Baseball</a></cite>
</figure>
<p id="fT7O5K">And here’s where he throws the curveballs to lefties:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NHNUWfKmzSiaKtbo6rOPTyWAtVE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7220973/bumgarner-lhh-curve-usage-2016-brooks.png">
<cite><a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=518516&time=year&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&gFilt=&pFilt=CU|CS">Brooks Baseball</a></cite>
</figure>
<p id="QjLgWV">And here’s where he threw the cutter—or cutter/slider hybrid—to right-handed hitters this year:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_3gK0voSHfAQYujM6gpHMJ5_Zbw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7222021/bumgarner-rhh-cutter-2016-brooks.png">
<cite><a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=518516&gFilt=&pFilt=FC&time=year&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=R">Brooks Baseball</a></cite>
</figure>
<p id="ml64cp">The Mets certainly know all of this, but it probably doesn’t make facing Bumgarner any easier. Despite the slight dip in velocity, his strikeout rate was a career-best 9.97 per nine innings/27.5% this year. His walk rate was up a bit, but only to 2.14 per nine/5.9 percent. </p>
<p id="Ed3hwf">The only thing that stands out as abnormally bad—”bad” being relative here—is his home run rate. Bumgarner allowed 26 home runs over the course of the season, an average of 1.03 of them per nine innings pitched. That’s the first time in his career he’s average over one per nine. </p>
<p id="4gOkjM">From Baseball Savant, here’s a breakdown of where those 26 pitches were thrown and what types of pitch they were. The pitch classifications read a bit differently than those from Brooks, but the fastball/cutter (“slider”) distinction is the main point here.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rQHYbnM0Z_jEPU6qAIeNvlHL504=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7222033/bumgarner-2016-home-runs-baseball-savant.png">
<cite><a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=17%7C&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&player_lookup[]=518516&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws</cite>%0A%20%20</figure>%0A"></a></cite></figure><p id="FSHOjh">Whether or not Mets hitters can wait for Bumgarner to leave pitches in those spots is what makes things challenging. But the Mets have hit plenty of home runs this year, and it seems like the best way to beat Bumgarner is to hit his very rare mistakes over the fence. It’s probably a lot easier said than done.</p>
<p id="qMz53s">Or maybe the Mets just need Yoenis Cespedes to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-giants-20160919-snap-story.html">stare Bumgarner down</a>.</p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/5/13156102/mets-madison-bumgarner-wild-cardChris McShane2016-10-04T21:45:10-04:002016-10-04T21:45:10-04:00Reviewing Madison Bumgarner’s starts against the Mets
<figure>
<img alt="San Francisco Giants v New York Mets" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DcvN8ukN-q_xHnmbzV8uAWVrsMU=/84x137:3611x2488/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51198255/453116898.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Madison Bumgarner has fared well in his six starts against the Mets.</p> <p id="MimFqp">The Mets will face 27-year-old lefty Madison Bumgarner in the National League Wild Card game at Citi Field on Wednesday night. In his major league career, Bumgarner has faced the Mets six times, and he’s been dominant against them. But of those six starts, four happened a pretty long time ago, at least on a baseball timeline, against some pretty bad Mets lineups.</p>
<p id="FR16jN">That’s not to discount Bumgarner’s track record—which is really good—but seems worth pointing out with a rundown of all of his starts against the Mets.</p>
<h3 id="R2oYoo">Start #1: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201204232.shtml">April 23, 2012</a>
</h3>
<p id="Vemrcq">Bumgarner first faced the Mets early in the 2012 season at Citi Field. Here’s the Mets’ starting lineup from that game.</p>
<ol>
<li id="fYeX4S">Ruben Tejada - SS</li>
<li id="zWrUsV">Daniel Murphy - 2B</li>
<li id="XZ5A9M">David Wright - 3B</li>
<li id="tYon9X">Jason Bay - LF</li>
<li id="uHyO88">Scott Hairston - RF</li>
<li id="FgVrFC">Justin Turner - 1B</li>
<li id="g1ejkN">Kirk Nieuwenhuis - CF</li>
<li id="JFTuL4">Mike Nickeas - C</li>
<li id="YN1nRU">Dillon Gee</li>
</ol>
<p id="C2TOfN">Wright hit really well in 2012, and Murphy was slight above league average. At the time, even Justin Turner himself probably didn’t think he’d ever break out and become a really good major league hitter. Overall, it was an objectively bad lineup, and Bumgarner unsurprisingly fared really well. He went seven innings and gave up one run on seven hits. He struck out four and issued two walks. All three hits were singles, hit by Nieuwenhuis, Bay, and Turner, with Turner’s scoring the only run the Mets got off Bumgarner.</p>
<h3 id="VoVRbM">Start #2: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201207300.shtml">July 30, 2012</a>
</h3>
<p id="Rg2av9">Later that season, the Mets visited San Francisco and faced Bumgarner again. Believe it or not, the lineup was worse than it was in the first game:</p>
<ol>
<li id="U1Ck4c">Ruben Tejada - SS</li>
<li id="cBKdab">Andres Torres - CF</li>
<li id="NfX2ff">David Wright - 3B</li>
<li id="5Vz5TA">Scott Hairston - RF</li>
<li id="z86Dwi">Ike Davis - 1B</li>
<li id="sbBNNw">Jason Bay - LF</li>
<li id="JruYSf">Ronny Cedeno - 2B</li>
<li id="jJOcd8">Rob Johnson - C</li>
<li id="N8gTBh">Jeremy Hefner - P</li>
</ol>
<p id="27qfVG">Bumgarner didn’t fare quite as well, at least in terms of run prevention, in this start. He gave up two runs in six innings, though he struck out nine and walked two along the way. He allowed those runs to score in the top of the fourth inning when Ronny Cedeno doubled in Scott Hairston, who had reached on a ground out, and Jason Bay, who had drawn a walk.</p>
<h3 id="4OF25e">Start #3: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201309190.shtml">September 19, 2013</a>
</h3>
<p id="monKDQ">Back at Citi Field, Bumgarner made his final start of the 2013 season against the Mets. The Mets’ lineup didn’t look so great for that game, either.</p>
<ol>
<li id="abjnmg">Eric Young Jr. - LF</li>
<li id="WlSvnT">Josh Satin - 1B</li>
<li id="OBohMx">Daniel Murphy - 2B</li>
<li id="kFupIF">Andrew Brown - RF</li>
<li id="V8LSY4">Wilmer Flores - 3B</li>
<li id="bWNJTc">Juan Lagares - CF</li>
<li id="j9A0Nj">Travis d’Arnaud - C</li>
<li id="aGJCpv">Omar Quintanilla - SS</li>
<li id="GnrTdF">Jon Niese - P</li>
</ol>
<p id="kI51Xh">Bumgarner’s line? Seven innings, one run, four hits, ten strikeouts, three walks. The only blemish for Bumgarner in the game was the combination of a Josh Satin double that led off the fourth, which was immediately followed by a Daniel Murphy single to score him. </p>
<h3 id="EmL7bi">Start #4: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201408030.shtml">August 3, 2014</a>
</h3>
<p id="i9AUYS">Nearly a year after his last start at Citi Field, the Mets’ lineup was a bit better in this one. But there were still plenty of holes in it.</p>
<ol>
<li id="4kEK5M">Curtis Granderson - RF</li>
<li id="4BrFpo">Ruben Tejada - SS</li>
<li id="x38GjB">David Wright - 3B</li>
<li id="YFSlOs">Eric Campbell - 1B</li>
<li id="cN9RKF">Chris Young - LF</li>
<li id="gMlrof">Juan Lagares - CF</li>
<li id="3jpBal">Wilmer Flores - 2B</li>
<li id="22Q3or">Anthony Recker - C</li>
<li id="WMyIV7">Bartolo Colon</li>
</ol>
<p id="w30r7A">This was by far Bumgarner’s best start against the Mets. He threw a shutout, struck out ten, walked one, and gave up just two hits. Flores hit a double in the third inning, and Wright hit a single in the seventh. </p>
<h3 id="hN5Z4t">Start #5: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201605010.shtml">May 1, 2016</a>
</h3>
<p id="4E7Qm1">After missing the Mets entirely in 2015, Bumgarner made the first of two starts against them at Citi Field early in the 2016 season. The Mets’ lineup looked quite a bit better on paper.</p>
<ol>
<li id="Dw1tF9">Juan Lagares - RF</li>
<li id="1IqfCa">David Wright - 3B</li>
<li id="mB6eYH">Michael Conforto - LF</li>
<li id="d8HWoN">Yoenis Cespedes - CF</li>
<li id="BfLyrm">Neil Walker - 2B</li>
<li id="yApanY">Wilmer Flores - SS</li>
<li id="RZdCpO">Kevin Plawecki - C</li>
<li id="1YlYaT">Eric Campbell - 1B</li>
<li id="hjyeq7">Noah Syndergaard - P</li>
</ol>
<p id="7cfGud">Despite allowing six hits and three walks in six innings, Bumgarner didn’t allow any runs. He struck out seven, which is good, but the Mets had their opportunities against him and failed to score. Here’s the <a href="http://mlb.com/">MLB.com</a> highlight reel of Bumgarner’s start:</p>
<div id="uoV6S7"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=646455283&topic_id=6479266&width=600&height=336&property=mlb" width="600" height="336" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></div>
<h3 id="zMvBgx">
<strong>Start #6: </strong><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201608180.shtml">August 18, 2016</a></strong>
</h3>
<p id="uEYaOu">The Mets finally got to Bumgarner in a game they wound up losing. Keeping with the theme, here’s the starting lineup from the game:</p>
<ol>
<li id="GNhviq">Jose Reyes - SS</li>
<li id="HtjRlU">T.J. Rivera - 2B</li>
<li id="ShWxdJ">Jay Bruce - RF</li>
<li id="FFvj6H">Wilmer Flores - 1B</li>
<li id="kxkUKu">Travis d’Arnaud - C</li>
<li id="4mcJ3f">Justin Ruggiano - CF</li>
<li id="ND4Zmn">Kelly Johnson - 3B</li>
<li id="ahBCzJ">Ty Kelly - LF</li>
<li id="2BrafG">Jacob deGrom - P</li>
</ol>
<p id="xoClcZ">Bumgarner gave up four runs in this start, all of them on one swing in the fourth inning. He gave up a single to T.J. Rivera, struck out Jay Bruce, and walked Wilmer Flores and Travis d’Arnaud to load the bases. Justin Ruggiano, who played a handful of games for the Mets this year between disabled list stints, then hit a grand slam. His season ended because of injury, but here’s the home run anyway.</p>
<div id="SS9g9h"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1067272183&topic_id=82574482&width=600&height=336&property=mlb" width="600" height="336" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></div>
<p id="e5vTUK">For the first time against Bumgarner, the Mets were able to take advantage of his mistakes, the biggest of which was the pitch he served up to Ruggiano. Unfortunately for the Mets, Jacob deGrom got rocked in the bottom of the same inning. He gave up five runs, the last two of which scored on a home run hit by Madison Bumgarner.</p>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/4/13169620/mets-madison-bumgarner-history-splits-giantsChris McShane2016-10-04T17:37:11-04:002016-10-04T17:37:11-04:00Mets players talk about National League Wild Card game
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: New York Mets Workout" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/o0KE0cMxcdOcAvvSvoy7S9hFAcc=/0x214:3785x2737/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51195115/usa-today-9588927.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The Record-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s like Super Bowl media day, but with 100 percent more Mets.</p> <p id="MMStoH">With the win-or-your-season-is-over National League Wild Card game tomorrow night, today was the team’s official “workout day.” Terry Collins gave a press conference, beat reporters asked players questions, and fans nervously counted down the hours until the Mets’ season is put on the line. Here are some of the more notable quotes and revelations:</p>
<ul id="BWHp3M">
<li>Terry Collins <a href="https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/783351260183420928">has decided on a lineup</a> for the Wild Card game, but don’t expect it to be revealed until tomorrow night. Smart money would be on Yoenis Cespedes being somewhere in that lineup.</li>
<li>Cespedes says he’s forgotten about the past and is <a href="https://twitter.com/DPLennon/status/783390935346446336">ready for tomorrow</a>. He added that the Citi Field atmosphere helps him <a href="https://twitter.com/DPLennon/status/783392856329314304">focus and stay calm</a>.</li>
<li id="qSFuhB">It was <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/3/13147652/mets-lefty-first-baseman-wild-card-lucas-duda-james-loney">previously reported</a> that the Mets were deciding on either Lucas Duda or James Loney to start at first base, and now James Loney has dropped some hints that he’s “<a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/783362015280631809">got a good feeling</a>” that he’ll be getting the nod.</li>
<li id="5PsCf1">Collins <a href="https://twitter.com/Mets/status/783355888266469376">lauded Curtis Granderson’s leadership</a>, which is of special importance given all of the young players on the roster. Granderson commended the Mets’ organization on their <a href="http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/204921462/oct-4-noah-syndergaard-and-curtis-granderson-workout-day-interview/">preparation of said young players</a>.</li>
<li id="ja3s0X">Speaking of young players, the Mets may have Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo available in their bullpen. <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/783355200123854848">Anthony DiComo</a> reports that the team will carry three of their four starting pitchers on their Wild Card roster. By process of elimination, this would mean that Bartolo Colon will be held off of the roster, making him the hypothetical starter for game 1 of the NLDS, should the Mets advance.</li>
<li id="QTKqRZ">The other remaining starting pitcher is, of course, Noah Syndergaard, who will face off against Madison Bumgarner tomorrow night. “It’s two Goliaths going at it,” <a href="http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0575043826498936679-4">Hunter Pence said</a>, in reference to the marquee matchup. If only the Mets still had <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/783378026264420352">their David</a>.</li>
<li id="zOv3tx">Syndergaard <a href="http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/204921462/oct-4-noah-syndergaard-and-curtis-granderson-workout-day-interview/">noted that he was</a> “anxious and excited,” but <a href="https://twitter.com/Mets/status/783404841804582917">not nervous</a>, adding that it is a “dream come true” to start the Wild Card game. He was also <a href="https://twitter.com/Mets/status/783370553839095809">rocking a headband</a>.</li>
<li id="QwwTnz">T.J. Rivera <a href="https://t.co/0o5Ck3SOvT">will commute</a> to the Wild Card game from his childhood home in the Bronx. <a href="https://twitter.com/MinorLeagueBall/status/783373412450328576">John Sickels looks at what’s next</a> for the second baseman, comparing him to Justin Turner.</li>
<li id="Wxw7KG">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/783356840490827776">Rene Rivera has bleached his hair</a>, so now he’ll look exactly like Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Reyes, and Jerry Blevins. No word on whether or not Terry Collins will follow suit.</li>
</ul>
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/10/4/13166304/mets-wild-card-giants-syndergaard-granderson-cespedes-collinsRich Resch